Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

chriswilmer

Active Member
Sep 21, 2015
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You know how crazy a 3 exahash/s rate is? At this hashing rate... a Butterfly Labs Jalapeno (remember those?! blazing hash rate of 5 GH/s) would get you 1 satoshi per day. Just one!
[doublepost=1485144488][/doublepost]Can you imagine going back in time and telling people who had racks of GPUs mining Bitcoin... that their whole elaborate mining rig was getting them 1 satoshi per day? (a Butterfly Labs Jalapeno was equivalent to about 10-20 GPUs )
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
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anyone with a simple setup with a few GPUs in 2011 and 2012 was mining over 100,000,000 satoshis a day. I can't get over how I could visualize bitcoin's success but not grasp the full magnitude of what was to come. I'm still surprised.
 
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Roger_Murdock

Active Member
Dec 17, 2015
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The block size debate is sometimes framed as a debate over whether Bitcoin should be a "store of value" or a "medium of exchange." One way to respond to that framing is to simply answer that Bitcoin should of course be both. As I've said a thousand times now, Bitcoin's entire value proposition is that it combines the reliable scarcity of a commodity like gold (store of value potential) with the transactional efficiency of a purely digital medium (medium of exchange potential).

But I think another point that's worth making is that "store of value" and "medium of exchange" aren't really different functions. In either case, we're talking about something that facilitates indirect exchange, i.e., trading one thing for another (money) with the sole or at least primary intent of, at some point in the future, exchanging that money for something else. The beauty of money is that, in contrast to the simultaneous bilateral exchange of a typical barter transaction, it facilitates real value exchange across time and across multiple parties. Instead of A trading his apples to B in exchange for bananas from B today, A can trade his apples to B in exchange for coconuts from C six months from now. And this works without B and C having to know each other, and without A having to trust B or C.

The reason people talk about "store of value" and "medium of exchange" as though they're separate things is because, at least from the perspective of a modern global economy, we haven't had a single form of money that satisfied both of the properties of money mentioned above: reliable scarcity and transactional efficiency. As a result, the choice of which money to use in a particular context would depend on which property was more important -- which would in turn depend on the length of time you planned to hold the money. If you're only holding the money for a very short period of time, the per-transaction costs of using money are going to dominate. But if you're holding money for a long period of time, the per-unit-time costs of using money are going to be more important.

The analogy that comes to mind here is a car versus a commercial jet. The per-trip costs of using your car (obviously assuming you have one) are pretty low - you just walk into your driveway or garage, get in the car, and start it up. But the per-mile costs can be comparatively high. If you're trying to go from the east coast of the United States to the west coast, the costs of making that trip via car in terms of gas, vehicle wear and tear, food, hotel stays, and time(!) are going to be significant. It shouldn't be too difficult to find a reasonably priced flight that would make the driving vs. flying decision a no-brainer. On the other hand, while the per-mile costs of commercial flight can be relatively low, the per-trip costs are usually significant. You've got to deal with the ticketing process, actually getting yourself to the airport (which may not be close to home), paying for parking, getting through security, collecting your bags at baggage claim, and then figuring out whatever ground transportation you're going to use to get to your ultimate destination. Thus, for relatively short trips, taking a flight doesn't usually make sense -- and for really short trips (e.g., going to the grocery store), the idea of flying is simply nonsensical.

One thing to observe when considering this analogy is that while there are obviously some differences between driving and flying, they are not fundamentally different things -- they are both at their core simply modes of transportation. Another takeway from this analogy -- if you're someone who thinks that Bitcoin should just be a "store of value," keep in mind that Bitcoin isn't just competing with precious metals and fiat currencies, it's competing with the best possible version of itself. (@Zangelbert Bingledack, I think it was you who gave me that phrasing). And in my view, the best possible version of Bitcoin isn't a slightly-improved 747, it's the equivalent of cheap point-to-point teleportation.
 
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Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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@awemany's Reddit post got me thinking: whether or not it's true that the UTXO set will be bigger with LN, the UTXO set certainly won't be significantly smaller. The number of outputs will still be equal to the number of users multiplied by a number like 2 or 5 or 20 or something. This hadn't hit me until today.

One reason this is important is because it kills the argument that LN (even if it works as advertised) would allow for massive scaling of the user base while keeping the cost to run a node small.

Let's imagine that bitcoin scales up to 1 billion users tomorrow. How much would it cost to run a node with and without LN?

Assume:
- 3 transactions / day per user
- 500 bytes / transactions
- 10 unspent outputs per user
- 50 bytes / unspent output
- Unspent outputs stored in memory
- With LN, users make 95% of their transactions off-chain

Scenerio 1. Without LN, we have:
- 140 Mbps of traffic (ignoring overhead)
- 500 GB of memory
- 45 TB per month of blockchain growth

Scenario 2. With LN, we have:
- 7 Mbps of traffic (ignoring overhead and ignoring LN traffic)
- 500 GB of memory
- 2.25 TB per month of blockchain growth

I'm trying to price these two instances on AWS (and haven't really succeeded yet) but it's pretty clear that Scenario 2 still requires a pretty fancy set-up that is not _that_ much cheaper than what's required to run a full node in Scenario 1 (no LN).

I'm certainly not against LN (but it should compete on its own merits) but why again is Blockstream/Core trying to push transactions off chain?
 

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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malleability makes it harder to implement a wallet and or any service which deals with TX.
I dont believe malleability was intentional, its not so much a bug, it's more of a security hole.
I think your argument that its a desirable feature because it prevents LN, is weak, and most certainly will not be well received by the majority.
off-chain payments are nothing to fear, they do not provide the same functionality as real blockchain payments.
The idea is that off-chain Bitcoins will be 'just like' regular Bitcoin and that 'LN will be a write-cache layer'. The latter is Adam Back's words. There is another scary idea floating around, of 'infinitely long open multi-hop LN channels that do not even need to settle on-chain'.

Multi-hop payments also do not give any fees to the miners. This does reek a lot like the traditional banking system on top of Bitcoin. Given the UTXO problem, a banking system without making Bitcoin's scalability any better!

I simply see that there are trade-offs involved. And I now think the 'malleability as a bug' notion simply requires more support before we go there. I will oppose fixing malleability for now, until we get a clearer picture on where it helps and where it might hurt. Not because I can't see that there are aspects where 'fixing' it might make sense (e.g. HW wallets) but also because I see the multi-hop off-chain network indeed as a potential threat. Note: Potential. I simply like to have more data on that, edge cases and so forth. Blockstream is trying to 'force-feed' LN to us and using all kinds of dishonest tactics at that. Yes, that does make me suspicious even though there might be value in some aspects of LN. I would probably *not* oppose fixing malleability if it is done in a way that the miners have control over the size of the off-chain network. In any case we shouldn't rush a malleability fix with SegWit now.

I'll definitely also oppose any malleability fix until we have an open ended blocksize, because you otherwise give an unfair advantage to the off-chain providers.


@Peter R.: Yes. And note that keeping the chain forever was rightly called 'a fetish' by Gavin. So with pruning or UTXO commitments, the last line would be the same constant for both as well.

Remains bandwidth. Some value in that. But a lot less than advertised.

Also we should be careful here: With LN, the assumption that basically big hubs with spokes form that combine multiple users into one is implicit. This however also makes the notion of combining otherwise separate UTXO identities together, with all the privacy implications!

In other words, there is a lot of dishonest propaganda surrounding LN, it simply isn't the scaling panacea and it also makes Greg's 1:4 discount very questionable.
 
the discussion of "one utxo each user" is very interesting. I again shows how far detached some people are from reality when thinking UTXO as simply a technical variable.

Every user needs at least 1 UTXO, and if we reduce the UTXO-creation to this level, Bitcoin has completely lost its privacy. This makes the current narrative a narrative against privacy (and, in general, against growth).
 

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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That's basically my argument: If you think of UTXOs as identities, you can only reduce the UTXO set by combining identities.

That is true for Bitcoin, with or without LN. With LN, however this assumption is implicitly assumed for propaganda purposes.

We should properly separate that. And if you separate it, LN will do nothing to make UTXO set size scalability better, but it will do - with intermediate hops that have channels open as well - do things that make it worse.
 

79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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but why again is Blockstream/Core trying to push transactions off chain?
because they want to do away with P2P e-cash just as their paymasters want do away with paper cash
sounds completely futile. if a significant number of economic participants value P2P cash, there will be P2P cash, in one form or another. who has the resources or determination to impede it?
 

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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@79b79aa8 : Blockstream might have the resources to derail Bitcoin and destroy its P2P cash properties. As we all know, it already started.

That of course doesn't mean another coin will fill that 'niche' (the niche that will take over the world).

But damnit, I own Bitcoin, I am a Bitcoiner, I want Bitcoin to succeed and not Monero or whatever.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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@adamstgbit Multiculturalism goes way beyond race.
Yes, it is a political ideology. Like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate multicultural and globalist ideology.

Even withing the same nominal race, people with opposite political views have measurable differences in their brain:
Indeed, that's why we are fighting. The libertarians against the totalitarians. Should we cancel the project and rebuild the city walls with customs houses?
 
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79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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@79b79aa8 : Blockstream might have the resources to derail Bitcoin and destroy its P2P cash properties. As we all know, it already started.
i doubt that BS funders' motivations are to destroy BTC as P2P cash. more plausible to think that VCs reasoned there likely is money to be made with bitcoin, thought that the protocol nevertheless requires "improvements" (and who really could have expected that satoshi got everything right), looked for a startup that appeared as if they knew how to do that, were impressed by maxwell, back & co.'s techno-cypher babble, and funded BS.

i don't know if venture capitalists still think there is more money to be made by eventually (TM) running a LN hub (or a sidechain) than by accumulating BTC now. if they do, they should cold-headedly re-assess.

as for maxwell, back & co.'s own motivations, it seems plausible to think they had a vision for bitcoin, which on top of being narrow got massaged by their investor's requirements along the way, and are hell-bent on carrying it out. fortunately they will self-combust. their incompetence is in plain sight.

That of course doesn't mean another coin will fill that 'niche' (the niche that will take over the world).
yes, nobody cares about niches. in business, going for a niche is a recipe for failure. you go for the largest slice of market share your product can achieve and sustain.

But damnit, I own Bitcoin, I am a Bitcoiner, I want Bitcoin to succeed and not Monero or whatever.
if BS/core manage to derail Bitcoin from being the dominant form of global P2P e-cash -- because of the supposed necessity of the system running on relay nodes with 2010 consumer specs or whatever -- then we will fork, and those BTC you own will still live on the global P2P cash blockchain, which, continuing under the assumption a significant number of economic participants value P2P cash, will eventually take over.

in the meantime, watch that hashrate grow! and get ready to kiss three digits goodbye.

/raises high his pitchfork, and tips his hat to @freetrader and @Zangelbert Bingledack.
 
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Roger_Murdock

Active Member
Dec 17, 2015
223
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Scary: Peter R from BU doesn't believe a fixed supply is a central property of Bitcoin.

@Peter R, how -- how could you, man? Why?


I mean, I'm assuming that's an accurate quote that's not in any way taken out of context and that what it signifies is that you think we should immediately fork to raise the limit? Or at least, that appears to be the working assumption of most r/Bitcoin commenters. But seriously, if you want another reminder of how powerfully effective a campaign of sustained censorship and dedicated trolling can be in creating a delusional echo chamber, take a look at those comments.

EDIT: apparently figuring out how to embed that gif without the caption is beyond me. I give up.
 
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AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
2,097
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sounds completely futile. if a significant number of economic participants value P2P cash, there will be P2P cash, in one form or another. who has the resources or determination to impede it?
limit the block size and you limit the utility of P2P cash. If bitcoin is used as a settlement layer and each limited transaction represents a huge value, most users wont be able to afford the fees or have the typical value needed to justify an on chain transaction.
 

adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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I'll definitely also oppose any malleability fix until we have an open ended blocksize, because you otherwise give an unfair advantage to the off-chain providers.
I agree with that.

most users wont be able to afford the fees or have the typical value needed to justify an on chain transaction.
that is a problem we wish to have.
yes we want so much BTC TX demand that it fills up even open ended blocks and the fee market starts to get affected by technological constraints ( not self imposed limits ).

I think we are a very long way off of reaching this point, but its probably a good target.

i mean what would you like to see, a "payment blockchain" that offers low fee, due to its limited use?
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
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*edited

MV
=PT, (M = Money Supply, V= Velocity of circulation, P= Price Level and T = Transactions.)

I originally though V was constrained by the block limit but it is not that simple.

I's T and if T is constrained by block size and M is fixed too, the only variable then, is P and V.

So if bitcoin is to increase in value then V needs to increase, for V to increase while T is fixed it's P that has to compensate.

P - Price Leval is the cost of money not goods and services.

For V to increase while T and M are constrained the value of transaction must increase. So growth of bitcoin as measure by its value can only happen when average transaction value increase.

The question is if bitcoin had to grow to the size of any single G20 central bank's sentimental system How many people will be using Bitcoin when the average transaction is well over $100,000 in value?

the answer - Just a centralized few. but keep in mind you can run a node on a $30 raspberry pi, and why TPTB will choose to use the bitcoin block-chain running on your pi as the settlement network to move vasts amounts of value around the world you may ask?

I don't know, ask a small block proponent, they have all the answers.
 
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