Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

satoshis_sockpuppet

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Feb 22, 2016
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It may seem irrational to you, but I assure insisting on only doing a hardfork if there is not strong consensus seems even more irrational to me.
I resisted the urge to comment your bullshit for quite a while now because I think you are just trolling to engage big blockers in unnecessary arguments.

But that you either can't,or won't stop twisting the reality, to make ridiculous statement like the one above, should be telling enough to everybody here, to stop viewing your "arguments" in good faith.
It's the same absurdity in arguments Greg and Luke-jr are using.

I won't start to discuss with jonny and I really think the rest should read the "discussions" with him they had and ask themselves what good that have done.

All options are on the table, it's up to the miners, if we have a usable SHA256 chain next year or if they decide to lose their investments in else useless hashing machines. Imho big blockers can turn to more interesting and enlightening discussions. If the miners don't want to make big money, there will be a PoW fork sooner or later.

btw: I love how nullc tries to cover his ass on reddit.

LOL I find it hilarious how manipulative narcissists like him are in the defensive position.
"Definitely not Greg, but thank you for the compliment."
ROFL
 

priestc

Member
Nov 19, 2015
94
191
No, I have provided justification for why the impact is significant.

Let me explain it again:

If total orphan risk cost / total miner revenue > 50%

Then since total miner revenue is approximately the size of the mining industry, orphan risk cost is guaranteed to be significant and have a large impact.
I think you are confusing orphan risk with orphan rate. The two concepts are related, but are not the same thing. It is not orphan rate that regulates blocksize, but rather orphan risk that does.

No miner should ever have a high orphan rate, as that means they are managing their mining operation poorly. If a miner has terrible bandwidth, large blocks will be a high orphan risk which is managed by making smaller blocks. In the future when the blocksize limit is removed, all nodes will manage their orphan risk by making blocks big enough and small enough to not be a orphan risk, no miners should ever have more than 1% orphan rate, though.
 

cliff

Active Member
Dec 15, 2015
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854
I do not think of it like this at all. In my view we have a market where to price adjusts to ensure the market clears. There is no concept of demand being greater than supply or supply being greater than demand with a floating price. This is not how markets work.



I am certainly not guessing demand for blockspace will increase due to payment channels. For the record I am skeptical of side chains but I think the LN is a very intelligent idea, which may become successful in many years time. I certainly would not assume LN will be successful, I agree that would be irresponsible. My point was as follows:

1. If LN fails then its insignificant and is likely to have no impact on demand
2. If LN succeeds its impact on demand could be approximately proportional to its success.
Not sure if I covered everything (I definitely haven't read all the posts in this thread since your reply to me) - and I'm sure there are a ton of typos. Will try and edit today.

RE: Demand and Supply of Blockspace

You say “In my view we have a market where to price adjusts to ensure the market clears. There is no concept of demand being greater than supply or supply being greater than demand with a floating price. This is not how markets work.”

This is how markets work. The “market clearing” price represents equilibrium in supply and demand. But supply and demand can fluctuate, causing prices to fluctuate. The existence of transaction fees that respond to congestion in the network is an example of that similar to how frozen orange juice concentrate futures may fluctuate based on a season’s weather patterns. See here: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/learning/supply_and_demand.html

Blockspace is a commodity. Transaction fees represent the current price to travel through space, which fluctuate based on available supply. Maybe I’m wrong here – and am happy to correct any misunderstandings on my part.

RE: Lightening and Demand for Blockspace

You say “All I was doing was arguing against the point, which was that a successful lighting would reduce demand. I simply do not understand that point and it seems illogical to me.”

I’ve re-thought this point, and I think you might be correct in part – but I also think I’m correct in part. “Success” might be the key word here - I don't assume success. Let me take a stab at explaining via some examples of what I think you might have meant, and you tell me if I’ve got it or don’t. Please correct me if I’m wrong – I want to make sure I know this stuff more than anything, I don’t care about being wrong or whatever.

Example 1 - Let’s say Leroy runs a lightening payment channel to process btc payments for several popular and busy online stores. If I want to buy widgets from George’s store – who is also a member of Leroy’s payment channel - using btc, the demand for blockspace is the same irrespective of lightening since both George and I eventually want the payment settled on chain. The difference is timing and the path to entry on the blockchain. With lightening, George and I don’t have to wait for settlement on chain like we do today because Leroy’s channel will take care of that eventually and we’re reasonably secured via multi-sig stuff within the channel.

Here is where I think I might be right about reduced demand:

Example 2 – Same scenario above except Leroy uses his channel to settle batches of payments for customers every 24hrs, or maybe even by number of purchases (i.e., every 100 purchases), on chain so that a group of purchases are settled at once on chain as one transaction instead of each customer purchase individually settling on chain. It seems that in this scenario demand for blockspace should decrease by virtue of consolidating transactions into batches UNLESS there is no blockspace savings as a result of using a channel (at least I would hope Lightening allows for some space savings).

Overtime, I could see demand for blockspace growing if bitcoin use grows as a result of lightening making it an objectively great way to process payments – but this result is not guaranteed. I don’t think it is illogical to think people will not like this means of payment – even if it works - since it will have to compete with other payment systems. In some sense, a lightening channel seems similar to a health insurance network, bank, paymaster, or other intermediary that facilitates payments between parties – this seems to introduce an additional layer of trust into commerce.

RE: “If some people upgrade to SegWit, then this creates more spare space for others that do not upgrade. Did you consider this?“

I did not. That’s an interesting point, actually. Is there any literature I can read on this projected effect along with the “[c]ombined the impact” of seg wit and schnorr, aggregated signatures, etc. resulting in “a massive c10x capacity improvement?” It sounds really good, but also really complicated. Wouldn’t there still be a patchwork of clients that don’t generate savings in every instance? Seems like the c10x capacity improvement may only be realized IFF certain stars permanently align? Dunno – seems kinda inefficient – but I’m a little outside my comfort zone here and might not be understanding something.

RE: RBF – No religious sentiment here. I just think commerce tends to operate on a first in time, first in right approach. This allows for predictability in markets. RBF – in a world where blockspace is limited – allows people to cut in line in the que hindering that predictability. For example, imagine buying an airline ticket last week to fly today and being bumped from the plane while standing at the gate because someone paid more yesterday for seat on today’s plane. Getting bumped from that plane might screw up both your plans (this is the delay I was referring to) and budget. You’d probably need insurance or credit to protect your interests in the event you get bumped from the plane. Similarly, RBF seems to allow delay when earlier broadcasted transactions waiting to be included in a block get bumped when enough later-in-time broadcasted transactions pay a higher transaction fee than the earlier tx. Am I wrong? If not, what’s the response to concerns about predictability here?
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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Ideal money, that is stable for all time must evolve by competition on the freest of markets
welcome /u/pokertravis.

you stated the crux of the problem right there. by having a 1MB centrally planned imposed limit enforced by kore dev, Bitcoin is not free to compete on the open market or reach it's full potential. the missing piece in your analysis is why gold never was able to become the ideal money in the modern age compared to what it had been for 5000 yrs. the invention of the internet and it's seamless communication is what has allowed the formation of Bitcoin, the potential ideal money. in fact, John Nash's paper was stimulated in part by the evolution of the internet and this concept of instant communication. furthermore, iirc, his Ideal Money paper envisions a type of money that is widely circulated and used by ordinary ppl, like for coffee etc. he never talked about his Ideal Money being limited in any way nor hobbled down to that of a "settlement layer" like you small blockists gush about. in fact, when you look at the situation, there is absolutely no reason to cripple any money in this 1MB way. it's stupid. and b/c there is absolutely no way Greggy and company can divine that 1MB is the perfect limit, it should be removed or at least increased to allow the "free mkt competition" that you espouse that will ultimately find the appropriate equilibrium block size over time.
 

lunar

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Aug 28, 2015
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Live- UK Parliament Holds Hearing on Blockchain
Video livestream
http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/d24ec0a5-222e-4a2b-a5af-5e45b937bd6a
Started a little bit ago. 14:00 UTC

will be looking forward to playing the bitcoin keyword bingo special prizes for 'terrorism' or 'pornography'

  • Subject: Distributed ledger technologies
  • Witness(es): Dr Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Bank of England
  • Witness(es): Professor Michael Mainelli, Emeritus Mercers' School Memorial Professor of Commerce, Gresham College, Dr Catherine Mulligan, Associate Director, Imperial College Centre for Cryptocurrency Research, Imperial College London and Lord Spens, Transformation and Assurance Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • Witness(es): Mr Simon Taylor, Co-Founder / Director of Blockchain, 11:FS Ms Blythe Masters, Chief Executive Officer, Digital Asset Holdings, LLC
"I can't imagine we would be using permissionless systems.../snip/.. We would never have systems like that... /snip/ The private sector itself is not thinking of systems like that, as far as I am aware "

"bitcoin has huge deficiencies as a currency if you think about what money is meant to be"
Dr Broadbent


"Ultimately this technology is boring, its about ledgers. the only thing exciting we've seen in this space was when this place (parliament) burnt down in 1834"
Professor Michael Mainelli, Emeritus Mercers' School Memorial Professor of Commerce,


Very impressed by the level of conversation. Lots of the obvious questions asked mainly based on fear of change. Understandable government reaction. But generally very educated and informed opinions. Other Govs could learn alot here.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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oops, he is /u/pokertravis and i guess i did invite him :(. did i make a mistake?

anyways, he talks alot about gold (one of my favorite subjects) along with John Nash, whom i've always put right up there with possibly being Satoshi.

let's see what he brings the thread.:p


please - say that you are not pokertravis from the reddits ... if you were, this would do sincere harm to this thread
 
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AdrianX

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There is this theory of "downward fee spiral" that may occur in the future, in the absence of a blocksize limit, which will be a problem when the block reward becomes small.
Ok let's start with this those sources you quoted to back this "theory" they don't give it any legitimacy, it's pure conjecture.

Let's assume the the diminishing block reward is a design feature and the designer understand free markets and the effects of Metcalfe's Law when he designed Bitcoin.

Satoshi http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/m/discussion?id=2003008%3ATopic%3A9402 said:
In this sense, it's more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.
Let's also assume he was designing for success and didn't believe in the theory of a "downward fee spiral" when he wrote this, looking at Bitcoin's success.

Satoshi https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48.msg329#msg329 said:
Right. Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating. In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes
Now if we look at the "downward fee spiril" as a criticism of Bitcoin's design we understand two things:

1) Bitcoin is entirely violently - meaning those who don't believe that the design will work do not need to invest in bitcoin.

2) "free" markets tend towards finding an equilibrium between supply and demand and those who don't believe in this effect do not need to invest in bitcoin.

So as far as I can see you're basing your argument on a "downward fee spiril" also know as The tragedy of the commons that has no bearing on the design of Bitcoin. Until such time as you can prove it, it is not a base on which to build an argument and for the purpose of Bitcoin it's seems the designer/s of Bitcoin understood the issue and if you believe they're wrong go make a better design.
 
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jonny1000

Active Member
Nov 11, 2015
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This is how markets work. The “market clearing” price represents equilibrium in supply and demand. But supply and demand can fluctuate, causing prices to fluctuate.
In markets supply and demand can fluctuate, sometimes in markets there are constraints on supply for a variety of potential reasons. In these circumstances you can still have a floating price and it still doesn't make sense for supply to be above demand, the price simply increases to ensure the market clears. That is not to say I advocate a 1MB limit, I am simply saying some markets have supply constraints

You say “All I was doing was arguing against the point, which was that a successful lighting would reduce demand. I simply do not understand that point and it seems illogical to me.”
LN is a complicated idea, my point was much more simple and general without getting into your examples. It is a very basic point, if LN fails and people do not use it, it should be irrelevant and therefore will not impact the network or reduce demand. That is all. Do you understand that?

Let’s say Leroy runs a lightening payment channel to process btc payments for several popular and busy online stores. If I want to buy widgets from George’s store – who is also a member of Leroy’s payment channel - using btc, the demand for blockspace is the same irrespective of lightening since both George and I eventually want the payment settled on chain.
You also had to put a transaction on the blockchain to open the lighting channel in the first place. The advantages of lighting are near instant settlement and almost unlimited transaction capacity within the constraints of an existing payment channel. Before you even begin to think about LN, I suggest you gradually build up knowledge, first start by trying to understand an uni directional payment channel between two people.

this seems to introduce an additional layer of trust into commerce.
No, the point of LN is one does not need to trust the payment hubs. Since the hub cannot take anyones money.


s there any literature I can read on this projected effect along with the “[c]ombined the impact” of seg wit and schnorr, aggregated signatures, etc. resulting in “a massive c10x capacity improvement?” It sounds really good, but also really complicated.
The Bitcoin development team does not specialize on public relations and communications. They focus on technical issues. If you like good communication, marketing and easy to understand systems there are other alternative areas to get involved in, other than Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was released people had to use their imagination or engage in research to see the path forward, it was not nicely explained in one simple piece of literature, you had to dig around.

There is plenty of literature on many of these topics, for example on aggregated signatures:
There have been a lot of discussions on Schnorr signatures and aggregated signatures, they are also mentioned in the scaling roadmap and even the HK agreement.

I think aggregated signatures should be able to increase capacity by around 30%. The impact of Schnorr signatures could be massive, depending on the transaction mix used. I hope this helps.

I know you may not be totally satisfied by this , and for what its worth, I apologies. Bitcoin has not worked in an environment with these much demands for information before. The communication has been dramatically improving recently, with a new Core website and weekly IRC meeting logs. At the same time there have been regular and large scaling conferences, in Montreal, Hong Kong and next up Milan. A huge amount of scaling and capacity enhancements ideas were discussed and huge progress was made on many ideas, including agreements to move forward and implement ideas, which is happening right now in a very fast way.

Please try to carefully evaluate all the information and do not believe all the criticisms of the Core development team, they are working extremely hard on successfully delivery both scaling and capacity enhancements. The massive 10x capacity enhancement is coming.

Wouldn’t there still be a patchwork of clients that don’t generate savings in every instance?
Remember the people that create the most savings are incentivised to upgrade the most, creating more space for others. With a hardfork everyone also needs to upgrade anyway.

Seems like the c10x capacity improvement may only be realized IFF certain stars permanently align?
Nope, if everything aligns I think one can get a 168x capacity improvement.

RE: RBF – No religious sentiment here. I just think commerce tends to operate on a first in time, first in right approach. This allows for predictability in markets. RBF – in a world where blockspace is limited – allows people to cut in line in the que hindering that predictability. For example, imagine buying an airline ticket last week to fly today and being bumped from the plane while standing at the gate because someone paid more yesterday for seat on today’s plane. Getting bumped from that plane might screw up both your plans (this is the delay I was referring to) and budget. You’d probably need insurance or credit to protect your interests in the event you get bumped from the plane. Similarly, RBF seems to allow delay when earlier broadcasted transactions waiting to be included in a block get bumped when enough later-in-time broadcasted transactions pay a higher transaction fee than the earlier tx. Am I wrong? If not, what’s the response to concerns about predictability here?
You are totally wrong in your understanding of Opt In RBF. The Opt In RBF policy is totally benign and has no negative consequences. It is unfortunate and odd that so much fear and confusion has been created over such and benign feature.

RBF does not allow you to jump the "bumped" ahead of anyone else. RBF is about replacing your own transaction only and was a feature Satoshi put in the early version of the software (Source: https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/master/src/main.cpp#L434).

Adrianx said:
the designer/s of Bitcoin understood the issue and if you believe they're wrong go make a better design.
With an economically relevant blocksize limit, I think the design is fantastic. Satoshi put in the 1MB limit.
 
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AdrianX

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I think you are confusing orphan risk with orphan rate. The two concepts are related, but are not the same thing. It is not orphan rate that regulates blocksize, but rather orphan risk that does.

No miner should ever have a high orphan rate, as that means they are managing their mining operation poorly. If a miner has terrible bandwidth, large blocks will be a high orphan risk which is managed by making smaller blocks. In the future when the blocksize limit is removed, all nodes will manage their orphan risk by making blocks big enough and small enough to not be a orphan risk, no miners should ever have more than 1% orphan rate, though.
That's the perfect explanation I'm impressed you were able to see it so distinctly.

Ps. I LOL'ed at the definition of a concern troll I think we should adopt one they can be cute if you're fast enough to keep them safe.
 

priestc

Member
Nov 19, 2015
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Is there any literature I can read on this projected effect along with the “[c]ombined the impact” of seg wit and schnorr, aggregated signatures, etc. resulting in “a massive c10x capacity improvement?” It sounds really good, but also really complicated.
Its completely bunk. These things will not come anywhere near 10x capacity. In general optimizations don't get you "x" improvements, more like "%" improvements. Imagine taking apart an electric drill. You may be able to tweak around the internals to get a little bit more power out of it, but your tweaking will not increase the power of the drill by 10x. Maybe 10%. The only way to get 10x more power out of it is to increase the power going into it. The same goes for bitcoin. These optimizations that blockstream are doing will at best result in 10% or 15% improvement in capacity. Nowhere near orders of magnitude. The only way to get orders of magnitude more capacity is to raise or completely remove the blocksize limit.

Even if you were able to get 10X improvement out of a power drill by tweaking the insides that means the drill was built pretty darn badly from the beginning. If blockstream's optimizations really improve bitcoin's capacity by 10x, then that means bitcoin today is extremely badly written, which I completely don't believe.
 

cliff

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Dec 15, 2015
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@jonny1000 - Thanks again. Will take me a bit to respond - I appreciate your quick turnaround.

One thing on my lightening scenario - I am aware that to start with a channel there's a multi-sig address and an on-chain initiating transaction. That address is like a bank account in my example, though. I was imagining the buyer and merchant being on the same lightening channel - although not required - which is operated/hosted by a third-party. I will think more about this nonetheless.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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RE: “If some people upgrade to SegWit, then this creates more spare space for others that do not upgrade. Did you consider this?“
i don't think @jonny1000's right on this:

another interesting dynamic from AJ:

In particular, if you use as many p2pkh transactions as possible, you'd
have 800kB of base data plus 800kB of witness data, and for a block
filled with 2-of-2 multisig p2sh transactions, you'd hit the limit at
670kB of base data and 1.33MB of witness data.


cypherdoc:

in the above example note that the blocksize increases the more you add multisig p2sh tx's: from 1.6MB (800kB+800kB) to 2MB (670kB+1.33MB). note that the cost incentive structure is to encourage LN thru bigger, more complex LN type multisig p2sh tx's via 2 mechanisms: the hard 1MB block limit which creates the infamous "fee mkt" & this cost discount b/4 that SW tx's receive. also note the progressively less space allowed for regular tx for miners/users (was 800kB but now decreases to 670Kb resulting in a tighter bid for regular tx space and higher tx fees if they don't leave the system outright). this is going in the wrong direction for miners in terms of tx fee totals and for users who want to stick to old tx's in terms of expense. the math is 800+(800/4)=1MB and 670kB+(1.33/4)=1MB.

https://bitco.in/forum/threads/gold-collapsing-bitcoin-up.16/page-308#post-11292
 

cliff

Active Member
Dec 15, 2015
345
854
Its completely bunk. These things will not come anywhere near 10x capacity. In general optimizations don't get you "x" improvements, more like "%" improvements. Imagine taking apart an electric drill. You may be able to tweak around the internals to get a little bit more power out of it, but your tweaking will not increase the power of the drill by 10x. Maybe 10%. The only way to get 10x more power out of it is to increase the power going into it. The same goes for bitcoin. These optimizations that blockstream are doing will at best result in 10% or 15% improvement in capacity. Nowhere near orders of magnitude. The only way to get orders of magnitude more capacity is to raise or completely remove the blocksize limit.

Even if you were able to get 10X improvement out of a power drill by tweaking the insides that means the drill was built pretty darn badly from the beginning. If blockstream's optimizations really improve bitcoin's capacity by 10x, then that means bitcoin today is extremely badly written, which I completely don't believe.
I like this power tool example - haven't thought about it from that angle before.
 
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cypherdoc

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Its completely bunk. These things will not come anywhere near 10x capacity. In general optimizations don't get you "x" improvements, more like "%" improvements. Imagine taking apart an electric drill. You may be able to tweak around the internals to get a little bit more power out of it, but your tweaking will not increase the power of the drill by 10x. Maybe 10%. The only way to get 10x more power out of it is to increase the power going into it. The same goes for bitcoin. These optimizations that blockstream are doing will at best result in 10% or 15% improvement in capacity. Nowhere near orders of magnitude. The only way to get orders of magnitude more capacity is to raise or completely remove the blocksize limit.

Even if you were able to get 10X improvement out of a power drill by tweaking the insides that means the drill was built pretty darn badly from the beginning. If blockstream's optimizations really improve bitcoin's capacity by 10x, then that means bitcoin today is extremely badly written, which I completely don't believe.
esp true when you realize LN siphons tx fees away from miners to LN hubs which actually weakens the mining security of Bitcoin and decreases the base layer "power". it's bolting on an entirely different economic system to leach away tx's. having said this, the LN guys are free to dev it all they want. but lift the blocksize limit to allow free competition if they really believe in the merits fo offchain solns. but they don't want to do that which should tell you alot.
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
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With an economically relevant blocksize limit, I think the design is fantastic. Satoshi put in the 1MB limit.
You're not supporting your argument or addressing my point that your arguments are based on nonsense despite having replied (I feel frustrated again)

Please explain why the limit was introduced I'll give you my understanding: at the time it was debate that at relatively low cost blocks could be artificially inflated in size because there were no fees and the blockchain made so large that people would stop using Bitcoin. It wasn't a permanent solutions.

Now befor you start trolling you can get back to proving you argument is in fact based on some valid hypothesis?
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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RE: RBF – No religious sentiment here. I just think commerce tends to operate on a first in time, first in right approach. This allows for predictability in markets. RBF – in a world where blockspace is limited – allows people to cut in line in the que hindering that predictability. For example, imagine buying an airline ticket last week to fly today and being bumped from the plane while standing at the gate because someone paid more yesterday for seat on today’s plane. Getting bumped from that plane might screw up both your plans (this is the delay I was referring to) and budget. You’d probably need insurance or credit to protect your interests in the event you get bumped from the plane. Similarly, RBF seems to allow delay when earlier broadcasted transactions waiting to be included in a block get bumped when enough later-in-time broadcasted transactions pay a higher transaction fee than the earlier tx. Am I wrong? If not, what’s the response to concerns about predictability here?
you gotta remember that RBF was a reaction to clogged mempools caused by full blocks. it's also a means to theoretically allow a LN pmt channel to close in a stuck situation with full blocks. it's a compensation for a flawed initial kore strategy of the "fee mkt". solution?: remove the problem, the limit.
[doublepost=1468943343][/doublepost]
The impact is not small.

Ok let me try to give you context again. There is this theory of "downward fee spiral" that may occur in the future, in the absence of a blocksize limit, which will be a problem when the block reward becomes small. Some people agree with this and some don't. Many people have come of with possible solutions to this or reasons why this will not be a problem:

  • Gavin Andresen thought that "If transaction fees are driven to zero so miners start dropping out, then merchants have an incentive to step in and start mining themselves". Therefore merchants will solve the problem.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6284.msg94832#msg94832

  • Mike Hearn thinks mining assurance contracts can solve this problem
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=67255.msg785122#msg785122

  • Recently, a new idea to solve this problem has emerged, which is now far more popular than the others. It is that orphan risk costs will prevent fees falling in a spiral. Peter R appears to be the main proponent of this
I argue, along with others, that this latest idea is very dangerous and should be avoided as a soultion. It guarantees that orphan risk cost is large relative to mining revenue. Why do you keep saying this impact is small, when its guaranteed to be large (that is the whole point) and presumably you disagree with the logic as to how we got to this point anyway?
"guaranteed"? pfft. you haven't proven anything and you haven't considered an infinite number of alternative possibilities that could be present in 2140. like you should even try. :rolleyes:

for instance, what about my "several dozen gvts into mining" scenario come 2140? no marginal costs for them.

you also said there are numerous examples of commodity based industries that have driven themselves off the cliff in a death spiral according to your Tragedy of the Commons scenario. what are they so that we can examine where your thought processes are emanating from?