Zangelbert Bingledack
Well-Known Member
- Aug 29, 2015
- 1,485
- 5,585
I think there just isn't a hugely compelling reason to switch yet. The candidate reasons, and why I think they aren't compelling to miners yet:For all of the analysis that goes on in this thread, I am surprised there isn't more speculation on why the miners are running Core right now. I still haven't seen a compelling explanation for this.
@Zangelbert Bingledack what do you think? Just widespread (and temporary) irrational behavior? Rational short term interest behavior (but even so, how?)? Some kind of law enforcement based arm twisting?
1) Users moving away, investors selling due to higher fees and delayed transactions.
This just hasn't happened (see the dark markets, the capital control evaders, the wealth offshorers - the real uses cases for which cryptocurrency is sine qua non - they almost certainly aren't using ETH, and I see no complaints on the DNM subs).
We could argue that the price would have gone up more, but that is arguing from a hypothetical. Miners are happy with the situation, and unlike many investors, probably would rather the price stayed stable at $450ish than jump around, even if that includes a good possibility of upside.
2) Altcoins rising as Bitcoin falls.
We got the first, but not the second. And even if Bitcoin falls, the possible explanations and rationalizations are myriad. A price drop could help rattle miners out of complacency, as will the halving, but only to an extent since they can blame it on something else, since if there is a major price drop you can be sure Classic will be riding high again so can serve as scapegoat, timing-wise.
Of course here is where I say fork arbitrage is needed, to send an unambiguous signal. But that still seems a bit early for reasons explained in the other sections.
3) Core generally being bitches.
Better the devil you know than the devil you don't. At least until things get more urgent. Basic conservatism. Sure, Classic is just Core with a tiny change, but there is a sense of not wanting to rock the boat, at least not before it is certainly necessary.
4) Fidelity Effect: the idea that companies will look at Bitcoin and say, "3TPS? No way!"
First of all, the hypothetical company here seems to be committing a fallacy, that Core=Bitcoin, which also would imply that Bitcoin development is centralized and can't be forked to remove the obstruction. 3TPS is a property of Core, but any company that really understands Bitcoin will know that Core can be forked away from - on their own if necessary - and many Bitcoin investors will follow along if it is a ledger-copying/spinoff fork.
If the argument is that they will go to an altcoin instead, they have to justify why that altcoin won't end up in the same position, ostensibly unable to fork away from a captured dev team. The logic doesn't pan out, because forking away should be very easy if there is market demand.
If the argument is that they will avoid cryptocurrency entirely, then OK. But again, it seems an argument arising from misunderstanding. I know a non-comprehending company's money is as green as anyone else's, but in the long run it may not matter, and miners are in it for at least the medium term. Plus there is that basic conservatism.
5) Lack of understanding of economics, investing, how money works, how open source works, how decentralized development would work, fork arbitrage, how companies can make empty promises, etc. on the part of the miners.
There must be quite a bit of that. In the future, miners will likely have to be a lot more savvy in order to avoid any possibility of getting hit by the nuclear option (changed hashing algorithm, to fork away from the miners). In the meantime, this is somewhat comforting, as it serves as a good explanation for the depth of delay we have seen from the miners. They haven't needed much understanding, because Bitcoin hasn't fallen apart at all yet. People are worried it will, but that is a different thing. In fact, people have worried about all sorts of things in Bitcoin; rarely is the community without one or two big worries. The heuristic that has served miners best so far is, "Don't worry. Hash on."
6) Miners can use Classic as leverage.
Some miners seem to be doing this already, but there is value in keeping things up your sleeve. The ASICBoost issue may be an example: "We won't run Classic...as long as you scratch our back, too." And like in the board game Risk, there is nothing stopping players from forming an alliance and then turning around and breaking it later. In fact that's usually the winning strategy. Play along until you're ready to make the killing move. Keep the card up your sleeve, ready to use. That way you get the best of both worlds: free ride on Core's need for your support, then crush Core into the dirt when it's outlived its usefulness.