Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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I just updated myself on the latest governance drama on the Bitcoin ML.

To the soft-/hardfork debate, let me add that many if not most are probably fine with softforks, myself included - if everything is on 'autopilot' because there is real developer consensus - like it was for Bitcoin until Gavin stepped down, mostly.

This is no longer the case, though, so the worry about creeping changes argument against soft forks pretty much makes sense now IMO.

Also, is it just me or are some people getting really weird on the ML now?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-October/011448.html
 
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AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
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On the debate, its is a little sad, in my view, while Core enjoined a 90% market penetration it should have used that opportunity to solidify all the core consensus functions of the consensus layer. I tend to agree hard forks are the more practical way to upgrade as soft forks in a harmonious centrally controlled implementation like Core are a treat to the essence of what Bitcoin is.

It seems moving forward it's going to be even header to do if we have multiple implementations of the software that runs the protocol.
 

lunar

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Aug 28, 2015
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Need help understanding Soft and Hard forks using multiple implementations.

I'm not a developer so bare with me here. The XT fork has contentious 75% activation point and I see lots of shouting about the fact it should be 95% or even 100.
Fast forward a few years and lets say we have 10 maybe more implementations and the distribution looks like the current situation with the mining pools.

It appears to me, the central part of the protocol would to need to become more or less ossified, (standardised and fixed) or each significant change or bug in implementation would fork themselves or others off the network. (Libitcoin consensus seems to go some way to address this, but i'm guessing it's really difficult or this would be standardized by now??)

So one possible future I imagine is with hostile implementations. Lets say evil bank conglomerate decides they want 12.5 BTC reward each block forever. Call it Bitcoin$£¥ They get enough nodes up and running and enough hashing power owned, then set an activation point of 51%. As the fork happens they buy up all the coins from 'their chain' huge price rise and sell all the coins from the competing chain (price plummets). Coup complete.

Firstly apart from being arrogant, what's wrong with this? Secondly if as I suspect nothing is technically wrong with this, as it seems like a form, (albeit hostile) of a 51% democratic consensus, then why do we have the need for 100% 95% or even 75% activation points when 51% is enough?

I mean, it works fine for the miners why not for the implementations too?

(Apart from the obvious temporary disruption to the network until the incentives naturally force consensus again. What am I not seeing?)
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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"Firstly apart from being arrogant, what's wrong with this? Secondly if as I suspect nothing is technically wrong with this, as it seems like a form, (albeit hostile) of a 51% democratic consensus, then why do we have the need for 100% 95% or even 75% activation points when 51% is enough?" - @ lunarboy

BIP101's 75% activation threshold is conservative. For example, it could be 67% (two thirds) and still work fine.

The way to think about it is that you need at least 51% of the hash power in order for your fork to become the longest chain. However, you have no way to know for sure how much hash power support you have. You can only estimate it by looking at the flags in the mined blocks. If there actually was 51% hash power support, you'd need to see, for example, at least 600 blocks out of 1000 to be 99.999,999% convinced of this fact.

 
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Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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@lunarboy

A big bank could build a competing chain with higher market cap, at least while Bitcoin is still young and if they spend a ton of money, but they could just make an altcoin to do the same as well. If the change were egregious, most bitcoiners would not adopt the bank's fork and just take it as an opportunity to grab cheap bitcoins. If the change were quite minor, people may just go with it and thank the bank for the market cap boost.

The market is always in control. Even the 21M coin limit is not actually sacred. If a bank or consortium of banks introduced a 22M coin limit but bid up the market cap of that fork astronomically and maintained that market cap gap by continually pouring zillions of dollars into it, I think people would just go with it. It would be the best thing that ever happened to Bitcoin.

"No," you will say, "that would break the whole hard money precedent, and soon we'd have another banking consortium pushing 23M coins, 30M coins, etc." Sure, but those will only be adopted by the market if these banks continue to line bitcoiners' pockets with way more money than they stand to lose to coin inflation. The process is quickly self-limiting. Quickly these banks are going to need quadrillions of dollars at present-day value to effect even small increases in the coin supply. The cap is set by the market and *can* be changed, but that does *not* make Bitcoin any less hard money.

It's the same with gold, after all: a bunch of banks could invest heavily in mining and thereby inflate the gold supply. Gold is nevertheless hard money. It takes a tremendous investment to effect a tiny bit of inflation. Or they could bid up silver and try to have it vastly eclipse gold so that silver takes on gold's position in central bank vaults...for an investment of trillions of dollars.

Of course no bank is going to bother investing insane amounts of money to push this nascent market such a small way, and once the market grows large enough for them to be motivated to invest such sums in an effort to change the coin limit, it will not be enough to effect even such a minor change.

Bitcoin is hard money because it is market money rather than central bank money, not because there is something sacred about 21M. That number merely serves as a market Schelling point to get Bitcoin through the early years, with the very persuasive rallying cry, "There will NEVER be more than 21 million bitcoins."

If Bitcoin is governed by the market, not by math, the limit can be changed slightly with a huge enough exogenous push on the market, but much like with mining, it would be pointless for such a well-heeled entity to do such a thing. And if they did, we should be celebrating.

Now if a bank tried to push through an actually egregious change, they might be able to - with humongous investment - get their fork higher in market cap during the forkbitrage process on exchanges (fork arbitrage on exchanges is I think the inevitable result when a fork has giant contigents that are adamantly opposed to it, as would be the case with any egregious change). But that matters nothing to bitcoiners and any future crypto adopters who find the change egregious (i.e., bankcoin being far less useful to them), as their higher market cap coin would lack important qualities Bitcoin has. Bitcoin would retain its competitive advantage to the exact degree that the bank's fork was worse. And, to the degree that the bank fork was innocuous, bitcoiners wouldn't mind adopting it.

No matter how you slice it, it would line bitcoiners' pockets while tremendously advancing Bitcoin's vision one way or the other. The Bitcoin absorbs all attacks and gets made stronger.
 

dill

New Member
Sep 16, 2015
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The apps being developed on top of the bitcoin network are almost like gold's industrial demand. But instead of industry it's the digital world and sought for it's "feature enabling qualities" that the blockchain provides giving it technological demand.
 

humanitee

Member
Sep 7, 2015
80
141
I just updated myself on the latest governance drama on the Bitcoin ML.

To the soft-/hardfork debate, let me add that many if not most are probably fine with softforks, myself included - if everything is on 'autopilot' because there is real developer consensus - like it was for Bitcoin until Gavin stepped down, mostly.

This is no longer the case, though, so the worry about creeping changes argument against soft forks pretty much makes sense now IMO.

Also, is it just me or are some people getting really weird on the ML now?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-October/011448.html
Might as well be a reality show at this point.

"This week on Nerd House, Venzen takes steroids and loses his mind on the Bitcoin mailing list, Gregory attempts to make a perfect sandwich for 5 days straight, and Peter once again tries to get his spot in the house replaced by fees. Find out who will be voted out on this weeks Nerd House!"

plot twist: Nobody gets voted out, they can't reach consensus. QQ
 
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Melbustus

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
237
884
The apps being developed on top of the bitcoin network are almost like gold's industrial demand. But instead of industry it's the digital world and sought for it's "feature enabling qualities" that the blockchain provides giving it technological demand.
Agreed. I think of bitcoin's (and the bitcoin blockchain uniquely) high security low-trust global authority of record status/use-case as the base demand; very analogous to gold's base industrial demand.

In the case of bitcoin, the demand for that use is going up as people realize that it's probably a good thing from a transparency/credibility perspective to just periodically drop a hash of whatever they're doing in the *bitcoin* blockchain. Whether it's a layered system (Factom, Counterparty, future title registries, etc, etc), or even a separate chain (or permissioned ledger), there's still probably decent reason to toss a hash into bitcoin's chain every now and then. Very much analogous to traditional "commodity" use demand.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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And yet we have guys like Alex Berg cooing incessantly about how they've won fair and square and how this place is a cargo cult.
 

lunar

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Aug 28, 2015
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@Peter R @Zangelbert Bingledack Thanks, this clears thing up.

BIP101's 75% activation threshold is conservative. For example, it could be 67% (two thirds) and still work fine.
So Perhaps what's needed here is some sort of gentlemans compromise on the definitions and use of hard and soft forks.
Soft forks just leave old nodes behind, running but naive of the changes (seems dishonest but gentle)
Hard forks, kick old nodes off the network but require a supermajority before activation. (seems honest and risky)
when In actual fact if both forks are significantly different from the previous versions. As running old software could be considered neglected, perhaps this 67% (or similar) could be the agreed activation point for any fork? Soft or Hard.

@Zangelbert Bingledack
/u/randy-lawnmole proposes an /r/Bitcoin brain-drain observer.
Seems an amusing time to say, you've spotted my reddit alterego.
 
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sickpig

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
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courtesy of the Economist:



even the article from which I fetch the image is quite interesting: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21669964-despite-many-usurpers-cash-still-king-money-everything?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/moneyforeverything

still they never mention the downside of a cashless-bank-only society: complete loss of financial privacy.

ps: @Bloomie is there a quick way to resize an image ala bct? One last question what's the preferred way to deal with images: upload or link it through image button?
 
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Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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This is a new animated GIF I've been working on to visualize the 92% historical correlation between block size and the price of a bitcoin.

I also submitted this to North Korea but I'm not going to provide a link anywhere, to avoid having the post censored and my reddit account banned once again. It will be interesting to see what happens. The post appears to have been quickly down-voted.
 

AdrianX

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
@Peter R @Zangelbert Bingledack Thanks, this clears thing up.


So Perhaps what's needed here is some sort of gentlemans compromise on the definitions and use of hard and soft forks.
Soft forks just leave old nodes behind, running but naive of the changes (seems dishonest but gentle)
Hard forks, kick old nodes off the network but require a supermajority before activation. (seems honest and risky)
when In actual fact if both forks are significantly different from the previous versions. As running old software could be considered neglected, perhaps this 67% (or similar) could be the agreed activation point for any fork? Soft or Hard.

@Zangelbert Bingledack


Seems an amusing time to say, you've spotted my reddit alterego.
Nice summary, in addition soft forks are decided by a centralized governance system controlled by developers. Where hard forks need wider conscious.
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
1,398
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Heavy down-vote brigading against my Reddit submission. I saw it hit #5 for a while but recently it's been pushed down the first page, having fallen to only 62% up-voted.