I didn't sleep well yesterday night, mulling over whether a POW fork is the right way to go or not. So I decided to read up on what others have written throughout this ordeal.
Naturally you can't do that without including Mike Hearn's painful post, "
The Resolution of the Bitcoin Experiment".
And I find myself agreeing with him in nearly all points - I must say he had a comprehensive view of the situation that is useful to study again when one's own head becomes muddled with the goings-on.
Particularly the following point he made has now become very clear to me:
Right now, the Chinese miners are able to — just about — maintain their connection to the global internet and claim the 25 BTC reward that each block they create gives them. But if the Bitcoin network got more popular, they fear taking part would get too difficult and they’d lose their income stream. This gives them a perverse financial incentive to actually try and stop Bitcoin becoming popular.
The Chinese miners are
most certainly afraid of Bitcoin's success.
They say they want the blockchain limit to increase, but their actions are indeed the opposite.
There is little doubt in my mind that have been told in no uncertain terms by Chinese government regulators: '
we'll allow Bitcoin to operate as long as it stays small'.
The Chinese government and central bank is not ignoring Bitcoin - no government and central bank is. [1,2,3]
They have allowed Bitcoin to play in the sandbox, to observe it for a while, knowing they can extinguish it at any time when it becomes too successful and too real a threat to their authoritarian regime. It is, after all, very instructive to watch while developing your own centralized version [4].
The dangers of having an uncensorable information infrastructure permeating the Great Firewall of China have surely not gone unnoticed while the trend towards censorship shows no sign of abating [5].
Lightning is a welcome distraction to them, a little futuristic payment network on top of Bitcoin that isn't going to affect their local economy much. Who cares? As long as Bitcoin remains in their control and LN wants to build on top of it - let them! Making more money for doing less (increasing fees while offloading transactions i.e. energy costs) sounds like win-win for East & West.
So, it doesn't matter to them how long this supposed "payment layer" takes to roll out. They are not going to be sad if it never happens - saves them some political work later on anyway.
LN as a payment layer is DOA in China anyway - firstly through competition that's already ahead of the game [6], and you always have the misty haze of regulation in which you can smother any inconvenient threats.
They have Blockstream (and it's VCs) by the balls. Merely suggesting that they might abandon BS/Core for the prospect of bigger blocks is bound to make Hill, Back, Maxwell, Corallo, Todd and Luke-jr (to name just a few) shit their pants as they reflect on the consequences.
The possibility of being handed effective control of "Bitcoin the settlement network" - even if it is only an initial one while other centralized replacements are being prepared around the globe - must be making some Chinese politicians smile. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
I am slowly arriving at the conclusion that we need to do the Chinese regime a favor, and rid them of Bitcoin. Or the other way round. There is no point letting the Bully play with your Legos.
This pains me. I know it is not the will of the Chinese people, who have no say in this. I deeply respect their culture, and I have good Chinese friends. But this is an undemocratic government that is running the show, and aiding other undemocratic powers to destroy Bitcoin. Giving them any more power - least of all over all our own financial destiny - is an intolerable thought.
[1]
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/06/12/a-global-trend-of-stricter-regulation-towards-bitcoin/
[2]
http://www.coindesk.com/report-russia-to-propose-7-year-prison-sentences-for-digital-currency-issuers/
[3]
http://www.econotimes.com/Bank-Of-England-Shows-Interest-In-Centralized-Digital-Currency-176355
[4]
http://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/chinese-central-bank-goes-full-steam-ahead-with-its-own-cryptocurrency/
[5]
http://sonder.news/article/da345ca0-78cd-4516-9011-079c2771cd4f ("Great firewall of China reinforced as foreign media banned from publishing online")
[6] "Merchant fees in China are low compared to the West and platforms like Alipay and WeChat/Tenpay have the mobile and non-bank payment market here wrapped up" -
http://www.coindesk.com/chinas-role-bitcoins-future/