This is a response to this post by @cypherdoc, to which I typed up a lengthy response to the other day but held off from posting hoping this topic would die on its own due to its all round speculativeness. But as I see it's being carried on, I present my response, lest you think I had none, and also because I promised it to @Norway in the BUIP101 discussion thread.
This is w.r.t. a potential "bloat block" attack on BCH. Some of the hashpower percentages are about a day or two old by now. I don't expect them to have changed all that much, but I didn't bother revising.
what hostile miner do you speak of?
Any miner hostile to the existence and mission of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) aka Bitcoin: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
be specific please; a large one or small one?
Since we're speaking of an attack on BCH, we're currently talking about a few percent of global SHA256 hashpower.
A large BCH miner can be a small BTC miner.
how much hash do they have to manufacture or buy/blow, as in waste, to accomplish this bloat attack block in a reasonable period of time?
First we have to be clear on what we consider "reasonable period of time". Give me a timeframe that YOU consider reasonable.
I'm thinking more about renting existing hash. Not much, nothing wasted.
Renting a few percent of global hashpower. 10% of BTC hash right now would come at a cost of ~$1.1M a day.
You might need to factor in BTC appreciation as you execute such an attack. So maybe budget $2M a day.
I'd consider a month reasonable. You just need to cause disruption repeatedly on the BCH network when conditions are favorable to your percentage of controlled hash.
The first time you execute such an attack you'd have the element of surprise.
After that, you may need to wait again until conditions favor another attack.
The attacker might mine BTC for a while until other pools tire of defending BCH.
Nearly 16% of hashpower on BTC currently is listed as "other".
And there could be very significant hashpower that's offline.
Previous spikes have suggested up to 20 exahash, out of a total of about 55 exahash for BTC.
It's not clear who owns that dark hash and whether they consider BCH a boon or would rather see it gone.
as in, how many $millions or $hundredsofmillions would they have to invest in ASIC's? or do they risk buying them from Bitmain?
I don't see a need to invest in own ASICs unless there's not enough unfriendly hash to rent.
There's more than enough hash on BTC which is either neutral or unfriendly to BCH.
You may need to be prepared to burn ~ $60M over the course of a month.
Maybe less if you can make some BTC during idle periods.
I'd say, easily within reach of well-funded private or state-sponsored attackers.
and what do they do with all that hardware once they destroy the Bitcoin network?
You mean destroy the Bitcoin Cash network.
They gradually go back to doing what they did it in the first place: mining BTC.
do they buy up several dozens of acres to setup a manufacturing plant or do they rent warehouse facilities or apply for permits?
Rent existing hash, perhaps they even have some connection to sizeable dark hash.
I'm sure contracts and funding could be obscured to make identifying the actual source of the attack extremely difficult.
if so, in what jurisdiction and how do they exactly prevent discovery or avoid public documents/permits for land, building, electricity use, waste, water, etc?
I'm not convinced they'd even need to avoid discovery as long as they can celebrate themselves in media outlets as the heroes who crushed BCH.
Although I agree they would probably want to remain unidentified. If they wanted to put a fake name to it, I guess "bitPico" or somesuch would be more than happy to sell their name to whoever put in a good offer, maybe even for free.
History would be written by the winner.
who do they source parts from and who do they hire for expertise in manufacturing/engineering to prevent discovery?
Existing expertise.
is it a gvt or a private actor who executes this attack?
Great question. I don't have the answer. It could be a melange.
Intelligence agencies routinely operate networks of front companies
and compromise influential individuals to achieve their aims.
what stops the rest of the network from deciding to orphan this block?
Nothing. But once the network is split and painful recovery needs to be
made, half the damage is done. Rinse and repeat a few times to destroy
BCH's reputation and market value.
how does this block overcome the propagation deficiencies we already know about?
One of the deficiencies is that block size is not covered by POW in the
header.
As deadalnix explained this can be used by an attacker to feed bogus
block data to do a DOS on nodes that don't otherwise enforce some kind
of size limit / timeout.
at what point do the motivations flip to where they might find it more profitable to mine honestly?
I'm not sure the kind of power these people strive for or cling to can
necessarily be measured in pure money terms, therefore I don't think this
questions has a straightforward answer.
I would include "never" as a distinct possibility.
what exactly did Satoshi mean by this statement?
Words such as 'may' and 'ought to' show that this was speculation
on Satoshi's part.
A few years ago I would have shared this entirely, and thought some
kinds of attacks to be purely in the realm of theory. That was before
we had to do a minority fork due to BTC having been successfully co-opted
by those who nowadays would like to see BCH swiftly destroyed.
Satoshi's statement must also be seen in its historical context, which is
around the time of the announcement / launch of Bitcoin (October 31, 2008).
Hardly any bitcoins had been mined, and we don't know what Satoshi would
make of how it has unfolded up to its present state (coin distribution etc).
Certainly we've seen a successful attack on BTC via corrupted developers.
It's still ongoing.
We've seen 51% attacks on minor coins which share hashpower.
BCH is very unique in that it has support of some of the miners who mine
the majority coin.
But that's not to say it couldn't happen on BCH.
I view recent talk by CoinGeek of waging a 'hashwar' on Bitcoin Cash as not much more than a euphemism for a 51% attack. And this seems to be confirmed on Reddit by their supporters.