Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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Could please direct me toward where anybody (miners, developers) suggested any intent of building into protocol?
If by protocol you mean compulsory pay for BCH miners, as in any proposal where the majority agree to orphan blocks by non-payers, this article implies that miners were assuming it would indeed be so:
Points of contention included just what percentage of the block reward should be used, and whether any at all would be a disincentive for miners to stay with BCH, driving them back to BTC. Suggestions were 5 to 10 percent, however Ver pointed out that as little as 1 percent could provide a healthy boost.
If it weren't enforced with orphaning, it wouldn't drive any miners away, since they could simply choose not to pay. This article implies the point of contention is how much to require BCH miners to pay, not whether to.

If miners are seriously considering requiring anyone who wants to mine BCH to pay 1-10% of the reward to fund proposals, especially without demonstrating any awareness of how deep and potentially onerous such a change is, that is quite concerning. Both at the level of sophistication of miners and at the thought that this might actually happen in a "gotta keep up with Dash, Neo, etc." impulse or the familiar politician-style "things need funding, we must do something and this is something therefore we must do this" false syllogism.

I assume most here see some of the potential pitfalls, but in simplest and fairest terms I'd describe it as a mechanism where miners vote to invest some of BCH's hashpower security into projects in hopes of gaining greater hashpower security later (through faster adoption and the resulting price increase).

Besides the obvious short-term security hit and miner centralization (marginal miners pushed out) effects,* which are two sore spots for BCH already, when you get into the nuts and bolts there is a rat's nest of administrative issues. It's analogous to venture capital investment by hashpower voting, a kind of DAO, with a very cumbersome interface.

*unless the news pushes up the price enough to compensate (short term and long term), but that's part and parcel with the investment gamble; it could succeed short term purely for image reasons, sure, but "purely" means it was in fact counterproductive as a funding program and the market should eventually come to its senses and punish BCH for it

Yes hashpower voting is superior to democratic voting, and yes miners have skin in the game and thus motivation to make good choices, but that doesn't remove the "voting with other people's money" effect** nor does it make mining companies into investing geniuses (at least until the industry matures and reliable analysts and/or prediction markets exist).

What are the odds a panel of non-VCs, some of which are obligated to pay even if they disagree, pick winning bets? Would you buy into such a fund?

**even with a conservative 75% threshold, up to 25% pay even if they think the investment is negative EV

Finally, the devil is in the details. The inevitable clunkiness of such a voting scheme creates a fundamental trade-off between simplicity and accountability. For example, what if a project is funded and progress turns out to be slower than miners anticipated, or there is worry about custodial malfeasance? The options to deal with that seem to be limited to these:

1) Very detailed rules about fund usage and conditions for revocation, by smart contract (pitfall: boondoggle by rigidity, custodians handcuffed by rules that fail to account for unforeseen contingencies, tying up a lot money)

2) Another vote each time a concern arises (pitfall: 75% cutoff very hard to reach - or if 50% then the "voting with other people's money" factor doubles from 25% to 50%, too annoying for miners to bother with the research and voting on every issue, language barrier, each miner must have reps go meet people in person to even get close to VC-level of success if dealing with potential malfeasance, incompetence, or just plain disagreements about project vision - boondoggle by administrative nightmare)

3) Let it ride, keep money spigots on and hope for the best (pitfall: boondoggle by even more waste and even less connection with miner wishes; projects could require quarterly re-vote, but that's yet more overhead, moving the problem back toward (2))

It seems obvious to me that

Minimal administrative complexity to have much chance of net benefit > Maximal administrative complexity that is manageable in an inevitably clunky blockchain-based voting scheme

and it does need to be a net benefit (positive expected return), or else it harms BCH price and security even if it makes certain people happier (such as devs who deserve funding).

This is classic Bastiat. The seen and the unseen. We see the projects funded, the well-deserving devs finally getting paid, the increased adoption through marketing in some spheres, and maybe even price spikes (and therefore security increases) that correlate with those things, but what we don't see is whether security would have been higher or lower in the absence of the program.

For all we know, the program was tremendously wasteful and resulted in nearly all of the X% investment being unproductive. Something inevitably gets done and its backers inevitably try to paint it as a big success. "Look at that beautiful bridge built, speeding transport, a definite benefit!" This is of course the refrain of every boondoggle.

The refrain to "look at that nice app that was made and that new smart contract function that was enabled and that merchant marketing that succeeded" is no less misleading. Nice things can be built by sacrificing Bitcoin's security, but that doesn't make the sacrifice worth it. The analysis is always incomplete until we know whether the security is higher thanks to the project, after paying the initial price in security. The fact that there is a strong tendency to assume so, despite there being no reason to, is exactly why such proposals are dangerously tempting.

Naturally the fallacy is obvious when considering cash investment: the fact that you get some of your money back is never mistaken as success. The mere fact that it would be better if a project had more money (almost always true!) does not even come close to implying it is an investment that will have a positive net effect. I see many in Slack and Telegram groups falling for this fallacy.

I think a better solution, if miners don't want to just individually and directly donate to or hire/contract people for their own needs,*** would be mining industry consortium(s) whose membership dues go toward projects. Miners may join thanks to typical benefits such industry groups provide: a seat at the table in negotiating standards and best practices, a structured venue for coordination and information-sharing, etc. Another non-orphaning option would be to do a blockchain-based scheme where only the miners who want to join in the funding program do. It has some of the downsides mentioned above but avoids several of the worst ones.

***it seems to me, for devs seeking funding, that direct hiring or contracting is by far the most likely way they are going to get pro-level (multi-6-figure) salaries paid by miners. Think of the overhead involved with vetting, hiring, monitoring, and - if needed - firing a $300-500k/year dev through blockchain voting by the whole group of miners in a way to ensure net benefit. It doesn't seem remotely realistic to me. Some will say all that could be outsourced to a trusted custodian, but that involves even greater hazards (millions entrusted to one person, or if a committee more bloat and overhead) and potential for waste and miners regretting the decision because the custodian doesn't do quite what miners intended (hires/fires for reasons they may not understand or agree with, seems like they might be playing favorites with friends, etc.).
 
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79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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wrt to QC, remember also @Inca 's QRL.

if miners don't want to just individually and directly donate to or hire/contract people for their own needs
why wouldn't they want to simply do this? i suppose because still beholden to the reference implementation model. but no miner can control majority hashrate. hence no single miner can impose an implementation to the majority of the network either (and the case remains that no cartel member has an incentive to work against their individual interest, e.g., by pushing changes that drive away investors or users). so any miner is free to contribute open-source code developed in-house, and only code that is compatible with what the majority of the hashrate runs will be used.

will some miners free-ride? sure, the same ones who will not get to influence development in the ways that they estimate best furthers their business interests.
 
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awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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Excuse my ignorance on this, I must have missed or forgotten about this, but isn't Open Assets essentially exactly the kind of token solution we want for BCH?

Folks interested in tokens on BCH: What would you miss here?

With the larger OP_RETURN space, I also don't see any issues encoding whatever is needed in BCH transactions now.

@79b79aa8, @imaginary_username : Thanks for the pointers. I didn't know about Bitcoin Candy and the quantum resistant ledger, either. I don't know whether it makes sense to create a full spin-off for that, but so be it. It looks to me one needs to allow and implement a new hash type for OP_CHECKSIG and that should be about it?
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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As far as I understand, the QC-hardness of Bitcoin is due to the extra hashing of the pubkey, with the hash part being hard to invert, even with QC algorithms.

Assuming you could quickly break ECC, really powerful quantum computing could theoretically allow for a 'quantum replacement attack' - you could try to quickly reinject another, signed transaction (with the key you then know) while the real one is sitting in the mempool, waiting to be mined.

However, I also do not, at all, believe the hype that QC is just around the corner, and even less believe it will be viable for breaking crypto any time soon that is worth less than a couple millions of today's dollar value.

Still, and to simply stop the whole 'what if QC happens' scaremongering tactics, I wonder whether it might be a good idea to work on a new signature scheme that would support straight-forward SHA256-based Lamport signatures in Bitcoin.

Would also reduce the number of crypto primitives that need to be used in Bitcoin to pretty much just SHA256.

Is it just me, or does this seem to be quite doable, except for the quite substantial bloat in network traffic and chain size?

Implementing it would allow for a pragmatic and hybrid approach where people store larger sums on QC-safe addresses and use ECC crypto for the bulk of the daily, small scale transaction volume.

Given the steep distribution of amounts in Bitcoin addresses, the total amount of Lamport-signed BCHs and UTXOs would be quite small. It would stay small until the moment QC would become so powerful (if it ever happens - those 50 qubits from IBM are supposedly stable for like 20usec or so) and ubiquitous that one would need to protect smaller and smaller amounts with QC-hard crypto. But those can likely still be quite large, due to the expected hardness of inverting RIPEMD160 and the bad guys having to resort to 'quantum replacement' approaches for a viable attack.

But by then, I'd expect the field of QC-safe crypto to have advanced sufficiently for better schemes to be available.
i'm pretty happy with the Yours.org article and all the objections to it have been answered, that i know about, ending with dskloet deleting his last comment:


>Assuming you could quickly break ECC, really powerful quantum computing could theoretically allow for a 'quantum replacement attack' - you could try to quickly reinject another, signed transaction (with the key you then know) while the real one is sitting in the mempool, waiting to be mined.

except if all other mining and non mining nodes are enforcing FSFA that block would be considered invalid, afaict. sure, you could say FSFA is based on miner choice and that they might accept a higher fee paying QC double spend in that attack block, but it appears most are enforcing it since we know how lazy they are implementing core code as is which does prevent the user from constructing new tx's with previously used outputs even if unconfirmed. and if only 51% of them are enforcing FSFA, that should be enough to create a longer honest chain that rejects the attack block. any miner attack would also have to come from a solo miner (specifically not a pool whose hashers would be alerted immediately of the pool operator's attempt) who is highly likely to be a small player and would not want to waste the considerable electricity and time (which he doesn't have or would likely not want to pay for unless you are the TPTB who still seem to deem these types of attacks infeasible; see the obvious absence of sighash attack blocks prior to August) to produce an double spend block. and then there's all the problems of being able to cash the high dollar value BCH out on an alerted exchange and/or tanking the price of BCH as a whole from breakage of the system. remember ghash.io is dead and gone and Satoshi's financial incentives are for miners to play honest:

*Due to the behavior of Bitcoin Core with respect to double spends (they are silently dropped, and not relayed), it is impossible to spend outputs that you've used in an existing transaction.*

*Right now, for the most part, Bitcoin miners follow a First-Seen-Safe rule: If 2 conflicting transactions show up in the mempool, the miner sticks with the one it saw first.*

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/38320/can-someone-outline-the-full-pros-cons-of-the-various-replace-by-fee-proposals?utm_medium=organic&utm_source=google_rich_qa&utm_campaign=google_rich_qa

>However, I also do not, at all, believe the hype that QC is just around the corner, and even less believe it will be viable for breaking crypto any time soon that is worth less than a couple millions of today's dollar value.

these guys are constructing a Moore's Law-like quantum computing qubit power chart over time to follow and extrapolate the need to develop alternatives:

Ajay Prakash & Gavin Brennen & LTB Podcast #231

>I wonder whether it might be a good idea to work on a new signature scheme that would support straight-forward SHA256-based Lamport signatures in Bitcoin.

certainly would be. the article was never meant to say BCH should stand still in devving a QC proof sig algo. it was really meant to compare and contrast BCH's QC resistance vs BTC due to mempool congestion while also introducing the question of whether with FSFA, just how QC resistant is BCH? i'd say pretty high given the strict assumptions of FSFA enforcement, address non reuse, Satoshi financial incentives, and ever decreasing times for tx propagation esp within the BCH miner relay network connected graph.

>Is it just me, or does this seem to be quite doable

yes, it's always been doable technically.

>Implementing it would allow for a pragmatic and hybrid approach where people store larger sums on QC-safe addresses and use ECC crypto for the bulk of the daily, small scale transaction volume.

yes, this is exactly how i see it; too many ppl assume once QC is here, it's all the way here, in terms of instantly being able to crack public keys. no. it's like anything else we see in computing; it's a process of developing faster and faster speeds over long periods of time that we can measure. we'll have plenty of forewarning.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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altho i disagree with the general thrust of this article, as it is vehemently against bigger blocks for all the same reasons we've heard ad nauseum, i think there are some subtle learning points throughout. at any rate, it's a good read into the mindset of a small blocker:

https://medium.com/@StopAndDecrypt/the-ethereum-blockchain-size-has-exceeded-1tb-and-yes-its-an-issue-2b650b5f4f62

here's one that i could agree with if BCH is going to get too far away from just money:

You can build on top of this network, but quite frankly anything else built into the base layer (L1) that negatively affects the network’s ability to do its job is going to bring the entire network to its knees…given enough time.

in this article, the author is trying to extrapolate the Eth problems to BCH (no surprise here) while totally misunderstanding the different incentive structures. BCH has the original ledger and investors who see BCH as a SOV and as a p2p currency. Eth is nothing like this and has taken a different smart computing and ICO path that has led to it's own unique problems. nonetheless, BCH could learn something here about those dangers.

What these completely ignore is the data per-second a node must process.

he's using the latency argument here, which is nothing new and is a goalpost shift from the original storage argument. i don't think i have to reanswer yet again to his objection here.

and here, let's introduce a little FUD:

You can put invalid transactions into a block and still create a valid block header. If the network is controlled by 10 FULL-nodes, you only need half of them to ignore/approve invalid transactions so long as the header is valid.

no, you can't put totally made up tx's into a block and expect it to propagate by initially transmitting the header first. it may have been true prior to the BIP66 debacle when we discovered they were SPV mining but now miners have closed that hole and will only SPV mine for the time it takes to finish validating the specific tx's for that block. but it's true for a certain relatively benign situation, which we've never seen and which he never qualifies or cares to define (the name and example of which escapes me right now which don't threaten the private key holders). i remember getting Greg to admit this one time years ago when he was FUD'ing against miners.

here is the part that got to me:

Unregulated blocks centralize networks. Large (but capped) blocks are only marginally better, but set a precedent for an ever increasing block size, which is equally as bad because it sets a precedent of increasing the size “in times of need”, which mirrors the results of unregulated blocksizes. This is why we won’t budge on the Bitcoin blocksize.

note how he believes in regulation. who's regulation again? also, the way i read this is they don't plan on budging on the BTC blocksize ever, just so we can point to articles like this when Core obfuscates by saying a blocksize increase is in their roadmap. guys like this won't let them b/c it has become a religion.

if you want a brain teaser, here it is:

This is a prime example of why a chain that allows participants the freedom to be selfish via lack of regulation is bad.

appears you have to be regulated to be free :)

Who’s validating those transactions when everyone is only syncing the block headers?

more misunderstanding of what miners are doing.

Ethereum is dying and BCash is trying to be exactly like it while ignoring all the warning signs we’ve been trying to bring to everyones attention.

more FUD with a kernel of truth.
 
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Mengerian

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I like to monitor the BCH/BTC ratio. Since the Bitcoin Cash fork, it has had three periods of bottoming/support finding:
  1. Oct 2017 bottoming at ~0.05
  2. Dec 2017 bottom ~0.08
  3. April 2018 bottom ~0.09
So the next thing I'm looking for is to see where price consolidates after this recent rally. If it finds support somewhere around 0.1 or more, I'd consider that a positive sign.

For the rest of the market, seems like we're still mid bear-market. The bear market is over when people's hopes and dreams are crushed, and their spirits are broken. Seems to me there's still way too much exuberance that needs to be unwound, so I expect the bear market to continue. The two unknowns, as I see it, are:
  1. Institutional money. I keep hearing people like Novogratz saying "the herd is coming", so if that happens, it could keep fueling the market. However, seems like it could take a long time (institutions move slowly), and I think there has already been lots of anticipation of institutional money, so it's priced in to some degree. At current prices, Bitcoin requires a net inflow of something like $13 Million per day. So if the price is being held up by smaller buyers anticipating "institutional money", then it could start running out of steam over time.
  2. ICO Hype unwinding. I have no data on this, but I've heard that many ICOs are still holding the Bitcoin/Ether they raised in their fundraising. If they start getting spooked by falling prices, they may want to sell for fiat for the safety of their projects. This could start a cascade effect of selling into a falling market.
So given these thoughts, I wouldn't be surprised to see the bear market continue for another 6-12 months, and Bitcoin fall below $4000, or maybe lower. Or maybe the market will go up, who knows!

For Bitcoin Cash, I think this will be fine. We have many grizzled veterans, and we can weather a long winter. Best strategy is to just keep focused on building a solid protocol and network, building utility, and spreading adoption for real-world uses.
 

Tomothy

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Mar 14, 2016
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So I saw some discussion regarding development cost paid by miners and orphaning blocks which sounded like this idea may be moving forward regardless of objections and then the discussion here which seems to suggest maybe it isn't? I find if you aren't paying attention stuff can move quickly in bch/development land. So, I guess i'm having some difficulty trying to catch up with what's going on or isn't actually going on with this process. I guess i'm getting a bit of DAA pstd. My understanding is that there's a plan for larger miners to move forward and orphan any miner's blocks who aren't participating in this voluntary contribution scheme it pays for itself because it's more efficient. Does anyone have information on where else this is being discussed, i.e., mailing list/ a work group / github/ gittr? To me, this is an issue of grave concern . Sometimes things continue moving on to production/implementation where the community has assumed the issue was put to bed. Since this is a global issue it's even more difficult for me to find updated information on negotiation status. Can anyone point me where to look?
 
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cypherdoc

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but it's true for a certain relatively benign situation, which we've never seen and which he never qualifies or cares to define (the name and example of which escapes me right now which don't threaten the private key holders). i remember getting Greg to admit this one time years ago when he was FUD'ing against miners.

Ok, now I remember what I was referring to. Miners can insert non standard tx's into blocks uniquely. I'll bet that's what this careless Stopanddecrypt dude is referring to. Miners can never get away with inserting invalid tx's into blocks.
 

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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I like to monitor the BCH/BTC ratio. Since the Bitcoin Cash fork, it has had three periods of bottoming/support finding:
  1. Oct 2017 bottoming at ~0.05
  2. Dec 2017 bottom ~0.08
  3. April 2018 bottom ~0.09
So the next thing I'm looking for is to see where price consolidates after this recent rally. If it finds support somewhere around 0.1 or more, I'd consider that a positive sign.

For the rest of the market, seems like we're still mid bear-market. The bear market is over when people's hopes and dreams are crushed, and their spirits are broken. Seems to me there's still way too much exuberance that needs to be unwound, so I expect the bear market to continue.
Similar reasoning makes me believe we'll retest 0.05 BCH:BTC, just before the tidal wave comes. Maybe when folks who own Bitcoin/BTC try to start a 'blocksize increase now' campaign and have enough grip on the MSM media to create the impression that it is successful. The ASICBOOST u-turn thing was a nice demonstration of the average intelligence of the 'crypto investor' and how easy it is for the string pullers to stir the mushy mass that is supposed to be their brains around.

I suspect your bear market explanation might fit to our spirits and hopes and dreams as well.

But if this 0.05 BCH:BTC scenario does not happen, I'll be happy as well :)


For Bitcoin Cash, I think this will be fine. We have many grizzled veterans, and we can weather a long winter. Best strategy is to just keep focused on building a solid protocol and network, building utility, and spreading adoption for real-world uses.
Absolutely. You know when you go on a long hike up a mountain and push yourself how you first feel all aching and itching and annoyed and stressed and whatnot? After that, the second phase is a numbing and dulling and you just work on putting your feet past each other, step by step. In the third phase then, you look back and see that you already climbed quite a bit and enjoy the nice views. In the fourth phase, you get this (due to the ongoing effort) "moderated euphoria" where you feel great about what you achieved and climbed already, what is ahead and how the weather is great and so forth. And so on.

I think we've been coming out of phase one and are now getting into phase two.
 

79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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although since aug. 1 the important price indicator has been BCH/BTC, it alone does not give an indication of when BCH price will bottom out: for that you also need to look at USD/BCH. i think lowest BCH can go is USD ~$250-300, which is BCH ATL as well as BTC bearwhale price (=BTC low during the 2014-16 bear run). BCH would hit ATL dragged down by extended bleeding of BTC, at which point decoupling would occur and BCH could start rising on its own. so what is maximum pain for BTC? if it is $6000, then we go back to 0.05, if it is $3000, we hover at 0.10.

additional considerations:
- seeing as how something like BTG, even after being double-spent, is still trading for $46, i expect BTC to retain value indefinitely, somewhere above 2013 ATH of $1300. but even going to $3000 would mean blood on the streets.
- perhaps it is too bearish to expect BCH to go down to $300. i certainly regretted not buying at $600 when we visited in early march.
- another reason to think about bottom (hence buying point) in USD terms is that those with our eyes on fundamentals bagatelled (traded all BTC for BCH, or perhaps fiat and BCH) at some point in late 2017. so if we want MOAR BCH, we need to pony up fiat.
 

Mengerian

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Aug 29, 2015
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@79b79aa8 Yeah, I can imagine the BCH/BTC de-coupling happening in two ways:
  1. Bear market continues, and BCH finds a floor in BCH/USD value. This floor would represent actual use-demand for BCH in payments, and other uses. Say it finds this floor around $300 USD, then BTC drops through $3000 with no support, thus de-coupling. (Could also be other numbers like $500/$5000).
  2. The Bull market resumes, activity returns to the network, and BTC gets congested again. As fees rise to >$100, BTC becomes unusable, and the ecosystem shifts to BCH past a tipping point to give BCH the greater network effect.

Similar reasoning makes me believe we'll retest 0.05 BCH:BTC, just before the tidal wave comes.
BCH/BTC going to 0.05 would be very scary. It would basically invalidate the information from all the previous support-finding periods. It would call into question the very survival of BCH. But who knows, one thing I've learned over the years is that I can't predict crypto markets :) (especially not short-term).

I like the mountain climbing analogy, I feel like in many ways the BCH community is starting to hit its stride, and is making steady progress in many areas. I agree that for now it's time to focus on the "step by step" steady progress forward. Then, hopefully, later on we can look around and enjoy the view.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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ok guys. someone pass this on to Roger Ver if you get a chance. maybe @KoKansei. imo, i'm pretty sure this core supporting interviewer is getting fed Q cards to pepper Roger with provocative anti BCH questions for maximum sustained pressure. good on Roger that he didn't take the bait and held his cool. while Roger is certainly getting better at answering technical questions regarding the difference btwn BCH & BTC, he still every once in a while gets confused and may not give the best answer. my suggestion would be for Roger to do likewise. have someone like Jake or one of his other devs in the visible background of his laptop helping him respond with Q cards to difficult technical questions. two heads are always better than one in interview situations like this where core has demonstrated abundantly they are willing to gang up and attack Roger. overall though, kudos to Ivan for not going overboard attack mode. and overall, great job Roger:




 
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79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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I can imagine the BCH/BTC de-coupling happening in two ways:
  1. Bear market continues, and BCH finds a floor in BCH/USD value. [...]
  2. The Bull market resumes, activity returns to the network, and BTC gets congested again. [...]
I agree. I think (1) is more likely than (2). BTC has a long way down ahead, unlikely to be reversed before LN gains traction, which may never happen . . . except perhaps if the DJIA tanks, which arguably is past due.

Option (3) would be for BCH to enter a bull run by itself. This is not expected anytime soon, we are used to there being a long lapse between the construction of solid infrastructure, and the bubbling of the speculative market.

Unless (4), sustained exponential adoption hits, ushering an unprecedented non-speculative growth phase. But I do not think user experience is anywhere near there yet.
 
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torusJKL

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Nov 30, 2016
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Finally, gloves off...

It's great to see him speak out and showing that he does not agree with where BTC is going and how the community behaves.
But there is nothing that would suggest that Daniel is now solely invested in BCH.

I think he said somewhere that the only thing that BTC needs to do would be to win the investors back.
At the moment this would be "easy" for BTC. Raise the block size limit and become an inclusive community again.

Thankfully with the new OP_Codes and the larger OP_Return size BCH has now more features that distinguish BCH from BTC but for the moment I don't see them strong enough to keep the investors on BCH should BTC do the above.

Hopefully BTC will stay on its zero compromise path with its exclusive community for the next 6-12 months which should give BCH enough time to make its mark with the new OP_Codes and market adoption.