Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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i take it the point is that bitcoin with large blocks can handle very large throughput, both quickly and safely, as it already has the appropriate network topology (virtually all mining nodes are directly connected to each other). as opposed to small block bitcoin with low capacity plus a layer 2 that is organized in a mesh topology, which presumably cannot handle as many tx/sec, or as safely (more opportunities for MITM).
 

Norway

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Sep 29, 2015
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I don't really get where you're going with this idea.

It makes sense that most the hash power would be connected to most the other hash power with a single hop, which gives the "nearly-complete graph" you've mentioned earlier. But I think small-blocker and large-blocker alike would agree with this.

Non-mining nodes are different though, and I'm pretty sure I read a study that the average number of hops is around 4 for information to propagate across the network (of non-mining nodes). Again I think large-blocker and small-blocker alike would agree with this.

So miners are connected (or should be connected) in a nearly-complete graph, and non-mining nodes probably aren't, but what is the significance of this?
I think I understand what @Zangelbert Bingledack is talking about. I'm sure many/some of the Core devs know how the network is. But I talk to a lot of people in Norway that are early adopters and technical people, but fail to understand what a so called full node actually does (or doesn't) do.

They argue against big blocks, because they think their hobby nodes are critical components of the bitcoin security model. I get a lot of push-back from more "neutral" guys who love the idea that they do something important for bitcoin with their precious nodes.

They say that they help to verify the transactions. This would be true to some extent if it was a mesh network. In that case, their nodes could help to filter out double spends and fake signatures. But as we all know, this is not the case.

I try to make them understand that it's a small world network, and that it's a good thing that their zero-hash nodes don't have any powers as they could also be used in a sybil attack. But they won't listen or learn. They just keep saying that they are supporting the network with their nodes. It's really frustrating. I have no other option than to watch them lose all their money by selling Bitcoin Cash for more Bitcoin Core. I hate it, because they are good friends after 3 years of monthly meetups.
 

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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@Peter R

Similar to what 79b79aa8 and Norway said, one implication of the topology is that for zero-conf you want to get your tx to a mining node ASAP, because they'll relay it to all the other miners within a second or so and you can have PoS-viable confirmation speeds.

Another implication, coupled with what I said in the reddit comment about mining incentives and SPV, is that huge blocks don't need to propagate all over a big, slow mesh quickly. Miners are all about network connectivity with each other, so they can handle megablocks. Listening nodes playing catchup isn't a problem since they aren't needed for relay and aren't helping the network, just listening for their own purposes (and of course it's no problem for SPV as the data load remains tiny).

Regarding higher average hops on the wider (listening) network, I suspect that is due to the mesh/"node" model having become a self-fulfilling prophesy in several ways:

1) Zero-conf txs are unreliable on a mesh anyway due to slow and inconsistent propagation, so Core says 0conf is broken, so there has been limited acceptance of 0conf. I assume this makes for scant incentive for people to connect directly to a miner or find the fastest route to a miner. Coupled with the many extra mimic-miners ("full nodes") around, I imagine that many txs naturally end up bouncing around a few times before reaching a miner (and this may go undiagnosed as a problem since it is normal/necessary in a mesh, and of course 0conf is already considered broken), further reducing the reliability/speed of 0conf in a downward spiral, with RBF adding insult to injury.

2) Tiny blocks enable many people to continue running listening nodes with relative ease, which gives many people the impression they're helping speed up relay, thus reinforcing the mesh notion with those people and people they influence. Since people see listening nodes as "validating nodes" and think they grant them some role in voting on network rules (e.g., UASF), they look at how long it takes even a 1MB block to propagate out to all the "validators" through all the hops and conclude as Gmax did that "Bitcoin would be a smoking hole in the ground" if we raised the limit even modestly.

3) There's little incentive for efficiency among the flabby (mesh-shaped) listening node network because AFAIK Bitcoin wasn't designed for anything other than for listening nodes and SPV to connect more or less directly to miners, so all the extra miner-mimics function like a mild Sybil attack or just a bunch of control rods slowing things down in the connectivity "learning" process. It's again a downward spiral. If the blocksize were raised substantially, this excess of listening nodes could be cleared away by the prohibitive expense and there would be additional incentive to connect more directly to miners. The bigger blocks would propagate faster through the listening network as well, reducing things like mempool discrepancies that apparently worry people.
 
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go1111111

Active Member
I understand your argument, but in my line of reasoning I'm making these assumptions:

1) the knowledge will not be instantaneous, as usual: initially there will be people with difficulties in the conversion, then there will be rumors of its solvency and after a while an official statement will be made (bankrupt/insolvency/whatever)
Yeah, my model of the value dropping to 0 instantly was a simplification that does change the analysis. It makes the net effect unclear rather than definitely leading to a Bitcoin price decrease as I suggested.

The effect you're describing will be the immediate, first order effect. People will try to move from Tether to their favored cryptos ASAP (though some will cash out to USD), adding a bunch of 'buy' orders to the Bitcoin/ETH/etc order books. Many of these people will be able to do so before Tether prices reach zero, which would all else being equal cause the market caps of non-Tether cryptos to increase.

However, the people who end up stuck with Tethers now face the situation I described in my initial post. Their total crypto holdings no longer contains a synthetic version of USD. If they were using Tethers as a replacement for USD, there was likely a reason, and their next-best substitute is probably actual USD. So they'll likely want to get some USD onto an exchange somehow. They could either deposit some USD from their non-crypto holdings, or sell some crypto. To the extent that they do the later, this puts downward pressure on crypto prices.

So we have two forces, one pushing crypto prices up, and one pushing them down. To predict what will happen we need to figuring out which force will be stronger. I think it boils down to whether they will replace their lost Tether value with cash that was previously outside the crypto ecosystem, or whether they'll sell crypto for USD.

Note that although I described things in terms of an initial effect and then a secondary effect, this doesn't mean crypto prices will bump up and then fall. Traders who anticipate that the later fall will be greater than any bump might sell immediately on the Tether news, causing only a decline.

Do you agree with that general framing?
 

79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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a collapse puts a lid on new fiat rushing into crypto. recent investors have only tasted unheard of returns and are due for a rude awakening.

the key is to remember short-term bubble-bursting (caused by unsound vehicles, but with repercussions across the board) is compatible with long-term growth (of the sound vehicles).
 

VeritasSapere

Active Member
Nov 16, 2015
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It *is* beautiful, isn't it? And yes: BTC in it's current form might still hold on to the crown ("they" have unlimited money to make it so? Even just propping price up indefinitely will probably do it). In that case I think we (as the Bitcoin community) will have made a grave mistake (it was a *trap*, yes, but *we* stepped into it) and our grandchildren might ask us: "*Why* did you let that happen, grandpa?
I do not think propping up the price indefinitely would work, eventually you would run out of money or at least inflate and implode whatever is being used to prop it up. I think in the long run good economics will win.
Beauty aside, here's some thoughts on how to most efficiently act out our voting rights as market participants: I think the "rise of the phoenix" might take longer than we like (it will take the migration of merchants and other players, also that of users, which is a slow process for psychological (in the latter) and technical reasons (in the former case)). So I suggest: don't waste all your powder this year. Maybe even sell some BCH on upswings. Why? For absorbing the potential flood of more liquidations of large holdings. *If* that happens: acting so is good for BCH price (stabilized, reduces volatility and panic) and also good for our own BCH wallet balances). I like safety, this is why I tend to act this way: it reduces that "holdings liquidation" risk. In other words: I think we have more than one shot at this, let's not waste all the bullets yet.
Most of you guys know what I do now, we will continue to hold, as new capital comes in part of that will also go into Bitcoin Cash as part of a diversified portfolio, we do not hold any BTC anymore. :D
Correct. Competition it is! (Ron Paul ftw regarding this). It's starting to sink in, too. At the conference when we spoke it seemed the both of us were in the minority in suggesting that altcoins were a good thing in general (for multiple reasons which I won't iterate now, and for all participants no less). It seemed most bigblockers were Bitcoin maximalists who wanted bigger blocks. Now, after how the Cash split went ("bcash altcoin" propaganda, flippening not happening at once), I think some may have moved over a bit and are now more open to the altcoin world because they've seen that being an altcoin (for a while) doesn't kill you instantly and also doesn't kill the "mothercoin" ;-)
Definitely, for me I think it is more about the positive change that this technology effects in the world, not about the name that might take.
Yes, much work ahead of us. Development and governance being utterly important. I'm very happy Falkvinge slided in there with his "letter from the ceo". That gave a good impulse and these issues need discussion (the form of the "DAA decision" wasn't received well by many, for example). We need good community spirit and we need to be inclusive and open. And last but not least: we need to scale well (I mean the "organizational structure" here). I also like Ricks prime directive to "create liberty through profit motive".
Now that Bitcoin is truly moving into a more true form of decentralized governance, it will be up to different constituents what implementation of Bitcoin they choose to run, this will define Bitcoin. BU is well positioned to be a leading implementation in part due to its own unique internal governance, which I think makes BU very respectable, accountable and therefore obviously more conservative and rigid. Which in this case should inspire confidence from the networks participants.

It is important that BU communicates closely with the other implementations as well and ensures cooperation and mutually beneficial development. Decisions should not be made rashly or by too small of a group, consensus has to be found on certain changes, pragmatism and compromise will have to be a part of that process. Of course, if agreement cannot be found on critical issues then a split will also be a final option, at least I do not see any issues arriving regarding such critical issues in the short term. I think anonymity features in the future could cause a divide as well and characteristics such as faster block times, but at least we are now all united on the basic vision of a peer to peer electronic cash system under Bitcoin Cash. :)
 
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go1111111

Active Member
So miners are connected (or should be connected) in a nearly-complete graph, and non-mining nodes probably aren't, but what is the significance of this?
I believe that this is one of Craig Wright's ideas. If so, I expect it's another of his many fixations on things that don't really matter (like the poisson distribution thing with mining), but which he tries to elevate in importance to impress nontechnical people about how he's right and all the experts are wrong. It has some properties that he likes: graph topology is obscure enough and has enough jargon that he can make a bunch of fancy sounding statements and know that 95% of people who pay attention to him won't be able to call him out on anything.

people see listening nodes as "validating nodes" and think they grant them some role in voting on network rules (e.g., UASF)
Some UASF supporters misunderstood how it works, but many UASF opponents still incorrectly think it's similar to a sybil attack and not a real way for users to impose their will on network rules.

What people who claim UASF=sybil attack seem to not get is that it's not what the node "knows" that matters in the UASF. Spinning up more nodes doesn't matter. It's what the node's operator knows by virtue of running the node.

A UASF works because human brains decide that they want to pay more for coins enforcing rule set X instead of rule set Y. Their UASF nodes help them know which chain is which, but the actual 'importance' of their UASF nodes always boils down to the demand for coins coming from the user behind the node(s).

Tiny blocks enable many people to continue running listening nodes with relative ease, which gives many people the impression they're helping speed up relay,
I don't see many people on the Core side who have this impression. I seem to remember it was Bitcoin Unlimited which propagated this misunderstanding by suggesting non-mining nodes could use the EC algorithm to slow down huge blocks by not relaying them. (BU folks eventually stopped making this argument, to their credit).

By far the most popular Core-supporter argument I see for running full nodes is that it's the only way to "really know" which chain you're on. As if it matters that much to most users whether you know this with 99.99999% certainty or 99.999%.
 

theZerg

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Aug 28, 2015
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Must have missed this one first time around. Very informative. Are you in favour of restoring all the original opcode functionality?
I'm not going to commit to "all" because I haven't done an exhaustive look at all disabled op codes. But generally, yes, I'm in favor of re-enabling op codes. Since each one does need to be given a hard look WRT how it can be attacked, providing good reasons for re-enabling a particular op-code will move it higher in priority.
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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Why does Craig Wright continue to make ridiculous claims? There is no way that Bitcoin Cash will be able to handle 50,000 tx/sec by next year. Does he actually believe this, or does he think it's helpful to make magnificent claims that will not come true?

 

adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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@Peter R
I always assumed Craig Wright was exaggerating a little bit, and the exaggerated numbers we're assuming nodes where all 20,000$ machines and his test consider only a single bottleneck like sigops/sec
he made his super computer do 50,000 sigops per second, and then he says "50,000 tx/s next year"

can you prove that no computer network in the world could be made to do 50,000 tx/s by next year?:cool:
 

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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@go1111111

I think we basically agree that insofar as the UASF idea is about economically important people/groups/businesses having an effective vote via their economic weight, it is sound, but that whether those entities run listening nodes is of minor importance at best.

As far as I can see, an economically significant entity who wants policy X isn't substantially hindered in their ability to leverage their economic influence to bring about policy X by failing to run a listening node that holds to policy X nor is their influence substantially reinforced by running one (as opposed to a listening node with a policy that always agrees with the mining majority, or even just an SPV wallet). They can exert their influence in other far more powerful ways as we are seeing with exchanges and other businesses taking sides, investors trading the forks, website owners censoring or promoting, whales funding development, and indeed miners making choices.

On network topology, the jargon is detailed mainly because there are a lot of different shapes a network can take on, and there are certain results, like the finding about Sybillability in On Bitcoin and Red Balloons, that depend on the specific topology. It becomes less necessary if we are working with images, and I would like to move in that direction, but on the main it's probably sufficient to just distinguish between two network types: mesh and (nearly) complete graph.

Mesh topologies look somewhat like a mesh, i.e., like the screen-door-shaped distributed topology in the centralized/decentralized/distributed network diagram famous in the Bitcoin world. I have seen this mentioned by key figures like Greg Maxwell and it's pretty easy to see all sorts of small-block claims starting to make sense when you look at the diagram and imagine that it approximates the Bitcoin network: easy to Sybil, fragile without many "nodes," easy to partition, hard to ensure consistent and speedy propagation of even modestly big blocks, fraud proofs needed for SPV, zero-conf is hopelessly broken, contentious hard forks are dangerous, not antifragile, etc.

These issues are radically different when the topology is close to a complete graph, where every node* is connected directly or almost directly to every other node as a consequence of protocol rules (a few of which might have since been removed because Core saw them as superfluous) as well as economic incentives driving network resources to be concentrated toward fast connectivity to the mining nodes that have proven most prolific.

Bitcoin truly cannot be a mesh, because if it were magically made into a mesh the network would spontaneously reorganize into a near-complete graph because of the incentives. Making it more mesh-like as Core imagines it by adding a ton of miner-mimics (listening nodes) would itself be an attack, from which Bitcoin is designed to self-heal.

*Further confounding the matter is an equivocation between the mining network (with its mining nodes) and the larger listening network (with its listening nodes), which I think is rooted in a misunderstanding of the paramount importance of mining incentives. This accounts for the "small blockers already know mining network is tightly connected"...they just want to call that "not the Bitcoin network." The worldview they have introduced since Satoshi left is a tangle of word games and interlinking circularities.

I have a lot of experience with this phenomenon in other fields, but I think people seriously underestimate how once you get a faulty assumption baked into a system it starts becoming self-reinforcing. Like a government subsidy, people adjust to it and it soon looks like it would be impossible to do without. It becomes very difficult to disentangle. "Who would build the roads?"

The only way to root out a potentially faulty assumption is to explore at length the possibility that the assumption was faulty from the start and see if the whole system makes more sense when reconstructed from the ground up without it. This is the proper way to evaluate a new paradigm without status-quo bias.

Here this means evaluating the full package as a package, that is, examining each unorthodox piece in turn with the provisional assumption that all the other unorthodox pieces are true (instead of false): that Bitcoin is a mining network and therefore a near-complete graph, that SPV is secure without fraud proofs, that a glut of listening nodes is in fact a burden on the network and doesn't affect governance, that there is no defense against irrational or non-profit-seeking miners except a PoW change (and even that is questionable), etc. Then see whether the whole thing hangs together better than the present orthodoxy, or not. And it's a nice bonus if it also comports exactly with Satoshi's original vision.
 
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theZerg

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Aug 28, 2015
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@theZerg
Have you been in dialog with nChain about re-enabling op codes?
We've just recently discovered common goals here. But haven't talked specifically about it.
[doublepost=1511214761][/doublepost]I'd guess that bitcoin's p2p is a scale free network built on top of a physical net that does not map well to theoretical models but a multi-level redundant star/ring. And this coexists with additional semiprivate fast distribution networks.