Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[freetrader]

Reading this statement by Xapo

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6q9ri0/xapo_are_looking_after_their_customers/

It is clear to me now that service providers will, in future, make it very easy for their customers to exercise choice when it comes to forks.

You don't agree with what this fork is doing? Then we'll convert your holdings on that fork into holdings of our current preferred chain on your behalf. Just click the button.

Now, our mission is to prove that with Bitcoin, you don't really need intermediaries.
Maybe some today, but it should become less tomorrow.

 

[79b79aa8]

in other words, matters unfolding pretty much as forkius maximus (@ZB) theorized long ago -- the futures, the wallets, the market-based governance.

two days away from the genesis fork, and looking forward!

 

[Fatman3002]

Lookin good boys, lookin good...

Bitcoin ABC:0.14.6 (91)
Bitcoin ABC:0.14.5 (91)
BUCash:1.1.0 (60)
Bitcoin ABC:0.14.4 (27)
Bitcoin ABC:0.14.3 (19)
Bitcoin ABC:0.14.1 (3)

 

[albin]

A little late to the party, but if I'm understanding the gist of the bet, if "now" is t=0, the answer is t=15, but if "now" is t=-10, the answer is t=5?

 

[Norway]

@albin That's my opinion too.

 

[Peter R]

@albin. Here's a somewhat related problem to help see why the answer can only be t = 15 min:

Imagine that you set an alarm that goes off at noon tomorrow. The instant the alarm goes off, you check the blockchain and write down how long ago the last block was found. Let's call that block N-1. You also start a stopwatch and time how long it takes for the next block to be found (N). How long after block N-1 do you expect block N?​

 

[albin]

@Peter R

That makes sense, expected value is always 10 min from now no matter when you check.

Basically this is like a Gambler's fallacy type situation, like thinking somehow your block is due up?

 

[adamstgbit]

@Peter R

I get the science behind it but, here's the thing i have trouble with it.

i can ask you right now at 9:30PM "when will is the next block expected", and you'll say " in ~10mins", 5 mins later, you're saying the same thing " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins"

bacily, your reevaluating your expectation every second. at 9:30PM did you REALLY expect the block in 10mins or not? see what i mean? lol.

i mean you know that the dif/haspower is adjusted to produce blocks every 10mins, yet 30mins after a block hasn't been found, you seem to think its expect in 10mins rather then admit its 20mins late.
[doublepost=1501378824][/doublepost]now i wonder if the mean block interval is 10mins, or does it vary immensely from say 0.5 seconds to 4 hours and 10mins just happens to be the avg block interval

 

[albin]

I think the insight is that if a block hasn't been found in 30 min, there is no such thing as 20 mins late that has any bearing on when it comes out WRT expected value theorem. The sample space of possible outcomes whose P() adds to 1 is strictly to the right from now on the time axis.

 

[albin]

I've seen CSW saying alot that the relevant distribution is actually negative binomial, and that Poisson approximates it, but don't binomial distributions need a fixed n? I was always under the impression that Poisson distribution was like binomial but where n increases without bound and P of a trial approaches 0, akin to doing a limit on the binomial distribution?

 

[majamalu]

Whatever happens, I get the sense that the times they are a-changin'...

Social manipulation has failed; attacks have strengthened us.

Blockstream will go down in history as the vehicle of the first assault on Bitcoin planned, coordinated and financed by the parastatal banking industry. Like the name of Ephialtes of Trachis, that shepherd who betrayed the Spartans in the Battle of Thermopylae, the names of the members of this organization will forever be tainted by infamy.

We will not forget them, or those who due to cowardice or conformism decided to join them so as to save themselves the inconveniences of telling the truth. And we will make sure that their example serves as a warning to future generations.

 

[Peter R]

@albin. Here's a somewhat related problem to help see why the answer can only be t = 15 min:

Imagine that you set an alarm that goes off at noon tomorrow. The instant the alarm goes off, you check the blockchain and write down how long ago the last block was found. Let's call that block N-1. You also start a stopwatch and time how long it takes for the next block to be found (N). How long after block N-1 do you expect block N?​

For readers still thinking about this, the answer is 20 minutes (not 10 minutes).

 

[Norway]

@Peter R
Do you agree that most people get it wrong when they say "Expect to wait 10 minutes on average before your transaction has one confirmation on the blockchain" because it's just 5 minutes? (Assuming the blocks are not full. Fuck Blockstream.)

 

[albin]

That might give some insight into why altcoins love to target 2.5 min, waiting 1.25 min on average for a confirmation is awesome.

 

[satoshis_sockpuppet]

i can ask you right now at 9:30PM "when will is the next block expected", and you'll say " in ~10mins", 5 mins later, you're saying the same thing " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins" ... " in ~10mins"

Imagine you are throwing dice. Everybody would agree, that after a n=few hundreds throws, we would approximately see every number with an fraction of 1/6 * n. Now, if we've thrown a six for 20 times in a row, would you say, that at the next throw, the possibility for a six is lower than 1/6?
No, the chance for every number is still 1/6 at the next throw. Regardless of what you've thrown in the past.

 

[Peter R]

 

[solex]

Bitcoin XT has released their Bitcoin Cash version: Release G
https://github.com/bitcoinxt/bitcoinxt/releases/tag/cash

This is an important development not just for implementation diversity but also because
Bitcoin XT Release G supports both XThin and Compact Blocks for fast block propagation and therefore these nodes provide a bridging function aiding BCC network connectivity. So it would be good to see this implementation deployed widely.

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-ml/2017-July/000071.html

 

[torusJKL]

That's a good point @solex .

I will take a look on the stats tomorrow and based on the client diversity maybe switch to XT for the first days of the fork.


Or would it help the network to run BUCash, ABC and XT on the same server?
In terms of disk space, RAM and bandwidth it should be no problem for the server I have running.

 

[Norway]

Bitcoin XT has released their Bitcoin Cash version: Release G
https://github.com/bitcoinxt/bitcoinxt/releases/tag/cash

This is an important development not just for implementation diversity but also because
Bitcoin XT Release G supports both XThin and Compact Blocks for fast block propagation and therefore these nodes provide a bridging function aiding BCC network connectivity. So it would be good to see this implementation deployed widely.

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-ml/2017-July/000071.html

This is awesome news. I talked to one of the XT devs a few weeks ago, and he said that they simply hadn't time to do this before august 1st. Some of the people in this space actually have real families and real lives! Great to see that they managed to pull it off.

 

[Mengerian]

@albin. Here's a somewhat related problem to help see why the answer can only be t = 15 min:

Imagine that you set an alarm that goes off at noon tomorrow. The instant the alarm goes off, you check the blockchain and write down how long ago the last block was found. Let's call that block N-1. You also start a stopwatch and time how long it takes for the next block to be found (N). How long after block N-1 do you expect block N?​

For readers still thinking about this, the answer is 20 minutes (not 10 minutes).

How about this scenario:

Choose a random time of the day from yesterday, let's call it t_0. Call the last block found before t_0 block N-1, and the first block after t_0 block N.​

Now I have some questions 1) What would expect the time between block N and block N-1 to be? 2) How long before t_0 would we expect block N-1 to be, and how long after t_0 would we expect block N to be? 2) Is this scenario different than the one you described, and if so, why?