Daily Market Analysis and News From NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– The Republican candidate for the upcoming US elections, Donald Trump, has declared his intention to become the "cryptocurrency president." Speaking in San Francisco, he presented himself as a defender of digital assets and criticized Democrats' attempts to regulate the industry.
According to Reuters, Trump raised $12 million for his campaign at an event for venture capitalists from Silicon Valley, organized by Chamath Palihapitiya and David Sacks at Sacks' mansion in the Pacific Heights area. Media reports indicate that executives from the crypto exchange Coinbase, the founders of the Gemini trading platform, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and other industry representatives were present at the event.
Intercom CEO Eoghan McCabe shared on X about his participation: "I spoke with six people there. None identified as Republicans. All had voted for or donated to Democrats in the past. Now they support this guy [Trump] for his policies on war, immigration, cryptocurrency, and more. These elections are a referendum on these issues."

– The attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be a key difference between the candidates for the US presidency, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, though neither understands the topic. Billionaire Mark Cuban stated this: "Do you really think [Trump] understands anything about cryptography beyond making money from selling NFTs? Neither candidate understands. But I've often said that Biden will have to choose between [SEC Chairman] Gary Gensler and crypto voters, or it could cost him the White House."
Discussing the upcoming elections on X, ASI crypto-lawyer Preston Byrne noted that Trump's crypto policy is "actually very substantial and well thought out, while Biden's approach is insane and punitive."

– The "Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025" was submitted to the US Senate on 3 June 2024. On 5 June, Senator Mark Warner's strategic amendment to this bill was published on the social network X, granting the US president new broad powers. This allows the president to "prohibit any transactions between any person under US jurisdiction and foreign intermediaries in digital asset transactions."
Financial lawyer Scott Johnsson criticized the law due to its wide scope. He sees it as an attempt to control digital assets under the guise of fighting terrorism, as the amendments added by Warner are borrowed from the Anti-Terrorism Financing Act.

– Late in the evening (CET) on 12 June, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve will decide on the dollar interest rate. Historically, such decisions have always significantly impacted bitcoin's price. In this regard, ChatGPT-4o AI was tasked with forecasting BTC's price based on technical analysis and financial analysts' assumptions.
According to the AI, bitcoin will trade in the $68,000-73,000 range. However, a rate cut or hints of an upcoming reduction could push BTC beyond this range. In this unlikely economic scenario, ChatGPT-4o predicts the leading cryptocurrency will trade between $73,000 and $75,000 or higher.

– Over the past few days, the crypto market leader has lost nearly 10% in value. Many experts believe this is due to investors' concerns that US inflation will remain high for a long time. Under such conditions, a quick easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is unlikely. Enthusiasm was also dampened by the fact that spot bitcoin ETFs broke a 19-day streak of investment inflows. On 11 June alone, industry funds lost nearly $65 million. MN Capital founder and analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that investors are acting more cautiously ahead of the FOMC meeting on 12 June. He does not rule out that seller pressure will persist in the near term. Under such conditions, bitcoin could correct to $65,000. However, van de Poppe does not expect a deep price drop, as significant liquidity is concentrated around the $60,000 mark, indicating strong support, and positive dynamics could be supported by geopolitical instability.

– Traders note that "digital gold" has recently been trading within a narrow range of $66,000 to $72,000. One popular market participant considers the lower boundary an ideal entry point, while entry at the upper boundary carries high risk.
Despite recommended caution, over 70% of the crypto community participants in several surveys believe BTC is on the verge of continued growth. For example, a trader nicknamed Captain Faibik is confident that bitcoin is preparing to break out of the "expanding wedge" technical analysis pattern. Breaking above its upper boundary, in his opinion, will open the way for the cryptocurrency to rise above $94,000. Trader Titan of Crypto, in turn, expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 this summer.
Community participants also point to the activity of large investors as a sign of BTC's growth potential. Whales, according to crypto industry representatives, are actively taking long positions in bitcoin. Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the $69,000 level has become particularly attractive for large investors.

– By the end of 2024, the first cryptocurrency will be worth between $125,000 and $135,000, according to BitGo CEO Mike Belshe. He believes that one of the catalysts for bitcoin's growth will be the high level of US national debt. "Our macroeconomic climate continues to confirm the necessity of bitcoin. Without a doubt, the US national debt is out of control. […] This situation supports the idea that bitcoin is the gold of the new generation," Belshe said.
He also noted that the US dollar is losing its position as the world's reserve currency due to US foreign policy. The BitGo CEO believes that the country uses the dollar as a weapon and a tool for manipulation. "Thus, the US national debt crisis is one thing, foreign policy and sanctions control is another. And BRICS is providing alternative payment systems. […] This is the story of why bitcoin exists," he concluded.

– The new Binance CEO Richard Teng, who succeeded Changpeng Zhao, believes that bitcoin will soon exceed $80,000. Teng associates the potential new high with the launch of spot BTC-ETFs traded on stock exchanges. This has strengthened trust in the asset, and retail traders and institutions no longer perceive it as risky. The Binance CEO also suggests that cryptocurrency legalization is possible if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. Declaring himself a "crypto president," Trump stated in May that the US should lead the global crypto industry.

– The self-proclaimed first resident of Bitcoin City, American Corbin Keegan, left El Salvador without seeing his dream city begin to take shape. In November 2021, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced plans to establish a crypto settlement. Upon hearing this news, Keegan left Chicago and headed to the South American country to become Bitcoin City's first resident. However, his patience eventually ran out, and he returned home.
The project's implementation was likely frozen due to a lack of funding. Bukele wanted to raise the necessary funds through the sale of "Volcano Bonds." These securities were planned for release in Q1 this year, but for various reasons, they did not see the light of day.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 17 – 21 June 2024​

EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed

As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual terms decreased to 3.3% compared to the expected 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the indicator dropped from 0.3% to 0% against the forecast of 0.1%. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which does not take into account food and energy prices, was 0.2% (m/m) compared to April, which was below the forecast of 0.3%. Annually, this index grew by 3.4%, showing the slowest growth rate in the last three years (previous value 3.6%, forecast 3.5%).

This cooling of inflation increased market participants' expectations that the Fed might lower the interest rate twice this year, with the first stage of monetary policy easing occurring as early as September. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 105.3 to 104.3, and EUR/USD soared by more than 100 points, reaching a local high of 1.0851.

However, the bears' joy regarding the dollar was short-lived. The results of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve returned the DXY to its starting point. The key interest rate was predictably left unchanged at 5.50%. At the same time, the new median forecast of FOMC members showed that the regulator confidently expects only one rate cut in 2024. Recall that in March, the Fed predicted three cuts in 2024 and three in 2025. Now, 15 out of 19 Fed leaders expect at least one or two cuts this year (7 for 25 basis points, 8 for 50 basis points), while the remaining 4 forecast the start of easing (QE) no earlier than 2025. Currently, CME Group's FedWatch indicates almost a 70% probability of the start of QE at the September FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted at the post-meeting press conference that the US labour market remains generally strong, although not overheated. The US economy continues to grow at a confident pace. According to him, further actions will depend on the balance of risks at each meeting. The Fed does not intend to allow a labour market collapse as a means of reducing inflation. If the economy remains resilient and inflation stable, the Fed is ready to maintain the current rate level for as long as necessary. If the labour market weakens or inflation falls faster than expected, the US central bank is ready to respond with a rate cut. At the same time, Powell noted that the regulator needs to see more "good data" to be confident in the sustainable movement of inflation towards the target level of 2.0%. Additionally, he warned markets against excessive expectations regarding the supposed monetary policy easing, adding that a single rate cut of 25 basis points will not have a significant impact on the economy.

Powell's rather hawkish rhetoric was reinforced by the publication of new medium-term economic forecasts presented by the Fed following the meeting. Thus, the regulator raised the inflation forecast for 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4%, and for 2025 to 2.3% from 2.2%. The Fed hopes to return inflation to the target 2.0% only in 2026. The US GDP growth forecast remained unchanged throughout the forecast horizon – at 2.1% in 2024-2026. The Fed also kept the unemployment forecast in the US at 4.0% in 2024, increasing it to 4.2% from 4.1% in 2025, and to 4.1% from 4.0% in 2026.

Besides this hawkish revision of the US central bank's economic forecasts, the dollar's further strengthening was facilitated by its role as a safe-haven currency. The future of the euro remains in question against the backdrop of political uncertainty in the Eurozone. On Sunday, 9 June, the results of the European Parliament elections, which shocked many, were announced: in Germany, France, and Belgium, far-right parties won while ruling parties suffered defeats. In France, President Emmanuel Macron's party garnered only 14.5% of the votes, resulting in the dissolution of the National Assembly and the appointment of early elections. Some market participants believe that political risks may send EUR/USD to the 1.0600 area or even lower in the coming weeks.

The weakening of the euro will also be facilitated by the fact that the European Central Bank has already begun a cycle of rate cuts. On Thursday, 6 June, the ECB Governing Council cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Since September 2023, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased by more than 2.5%, allowing the regulator to take such a step for the first time in a long while. Additionally, fresh macroeconomic data show that the target level of 2.0% may be achieved quite soon. For instance, the German CPI, the locomotive of the European economy, published on Wednesday, 12 June, showed a decline from 0.5% to 0.1% (m/m). ECB representative Bostjan Vasle stated on Thursday that "further rate cuts are possible if the disinflation process continues."

The last chord of the past week saw EUR/USD at 1.0702. As for the forecast of analysts for the near future, as of the evening of 14 June, 60% of their votes were given for the pair's decline, 20% for its rise, and 20% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 sided with the dollar, all coloured red, although 20% of the latter are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair lies in the 1.0670 zone, followed by 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0370. Resistance zones are in the areas of 1.0740, then 1.0780-1.0810, 1.0865-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

In the coming week, on Tuesday, 18 June, it will be known what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone, and statistics on the US retail market will also be released. On Wednesday, 19 June, it will be a holiday in the United States: the country celebrates Juneteenth. On Thursday, 20 June, the number of initial jobless claims in the US will be known, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be published. And at the very end of the workweek, on Friday, 21 June, a whole series of preliminary business activity (PMI) data will be received in various sectors of the German, Eurozone, and US economies. The publication of the Fed's Monetary Policy Report on the same day will also attract considerable interest.

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[Stan NordFX]

GBP/USD: What Will the Bank of England Decide on 20 June?

In autumn 2023, the BoE concluded that its monetary policy should remain tight for a prolonged period until inflation confidently stabilises at the target level of 2.0%. Based on this, despite a decrease in price pressure, at its meeting on 8 May, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided by a majority vote (seven to two) to keep the key interest rate at the previous level of 5.25%. (Two MPC members voted for a reduction to 5.0%).

According to the country's Office for National Statistics (ONS), since November 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen from 11.1% to 2.3% – the lowest level since July 2021. The British central bank expects this figure to return to the target level in the near future but to increase slightly to around 2.5% in the second half of the year due to rising energy prices. Additionally, according to the May forecasts, CPI will be 1.9% in two years (Q2 2026) and 1.6% in three years (Q2 2027).

British inflation expectations for the near future have also decreased to the lowest level in almost three years, indicating a return to historically average levels. In May, the country's residents on average expected consumer prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, compared to a forecast of around 3% in February. This is stated in the results of the British central bank's quarterly survey.

Data on business activity (PMI) published in the first week of June indicated that the economy in the United Kingdom is relatively well. Activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 from 49.1 earlier. Some slowdown was shown by the PMI for the services sector – from 55.0 to 52.9, and the composite PMI – from 54.1 to 53.0. However, despite this, all these indicators remain above the 50.0 mark, separating growth from a slowdown in activity.

Certain concerns are raised by the UK labour market. Statistics published in early June showed a spike in jobless claims – by 50.4K in May after 8.4K the previous month. This is the largest monthly increase since the first COVID lockdowns. Before the pandemic, the last such spike was during the 2009 recession. Moreover, the unemployment rate for the February-April 2024 period rose to 4.4%. Of course, historically, this is a low level, but it is the highest in three years.

The next Bank of England meeting will be held on Thursday, 20 June. Analysts generally forecast that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%. This forecast is supported by the slowdown in inflation decline rates. Additionally, there is a significant increase in UK wages (+6.0%), which could push prices up. This, in turn, reduces the likelihood of the British central bank transitioning to a softer monetary policy in the near future. The start of QE may be delayed until September or later.

The BoE's tight monetary policy creates prerequisites for future demand for the pound. Meanwhile, last week, GBP/USD was driven by overseas data. On US inflation data, it broke through the upper boundary of the 1.2700-1.2800 channel and rose to 1.2860, then, following the FOMC meeting results, it fell and broke through the lower boundary, dropping to 1.2656. The week ended at 1.2686.

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is somewhat similar to the forecast for the previous pair. In this case, 50% of specialists voted for dollar strengthening, 25% for a northern trajectory, and 25% remained neutral. As for technical analysis on D1, the picture is also mixed. Trend indicators are evenly split 50:50 between red and green. Among oscillators, 60% point south (a quarter signal oversold), 20% look north, and the remaining 20% remain neutral. In case of further pair decline, support levels and zones are 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. In case of pair growth, resistance will be encountered at 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2865-1.2900.

Besides the mentioned Bank of England meeting on 20 June, including its interest rate decision and subsequent press conference, it is necessary to note Wednesday, 19 June, when fresh consumer inflation (CPI) data for the UK will be released. Friday, 21 June, also promises to be interesting. On this day, retail sales volumes and preliminary business activity (PMI) indicators in various sectors of the UK's economy will be known.

USD/JPY: BoJ Changed Nothing but Promised Changes in the Future

Unlike the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting has already taken place, and its results were announced last Friday, 14 June. The yen's weakness in recent months has negatively impacted Asian currencies. In March, the central bank made its first move – raising the rate for the first time since 2007 (since 2016, it had kept it at a negative level of -0.1%). The regulator also abandoned the targeting of 10-year government bond yields. Investors closely watched the Japanese central bank for hints on whether it would further unwind monetary stimulus.

But for now, the BoJ decided not to change its accommodative monetary policy, maintaining the current pace of bond purchases at around 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) per month. However, it promised to present a plan for their gradual reduction at the next meeting in July. "We decided to subsequently reduce the volume of our purchases [within one to two years] to ensure more free formation of long-term interest rates in financial markets," the central bank statement said. At the same time, the regulator announced that it would gather market participants' opinions before making a specific decision.

The deposit rate for commercial banks was also left unchanged – officials unanimously voted to keep it in the range of 0.0%-0.1%, as expected. From this, experts once again concluded that the BoJ would not rush to tighten its quantitative easing (QT) monetary policy.

The French bank Societe Generale believes that given the pressure from the government due to the weak yen, the most likely scenario will be a reduction in bond purchases starting in August, with their purchases decreasing every three months and reaching zero by November 2025. Additionally, according to Societe Generale economists, the BoJ may raise the discount rate in September this year.

Of course, USD/JPY could not ignore such events of the past week as the US CPI figures and the Fed meeting: its fluctuation range exceeded 240 points (155.71 at the low, 158.25 at the high). However, the five-day result was not so impressive: starting at 156.75, it ended at 157.37.

Experts' forecasts for the near term look like this: not a single vote was given for the pair's southern movement and yen strengthening, while the remaining votes were evenly split: 50% pointed north, and 50% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, all trend indicators on D1 are coloured green. The nearest support level is in the 156.80-157.05 zone, followed by 156.00-156.10, 155.45, 154.50-154.70, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.15, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance lies in the 157.70 area, followed by 158.25-158.60, 160.00-160.20.

No significant economic statistics releases for Japan are scheduled for the upcoming week.

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[Stan NordFX]

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Present and Future of Bitcoin Depend on the USA

In the absence of independent drivers, the crypto market has recently followed the dollar, which in turn follows the Fed, which follows the macro statistics from the USA. BTC/USD is like scales, with the main cryptocurrency on one side and the US dollar on the other. The dollar became heavier – bitcoin became lighter, and vice versa. On Friday, 7 June, strong statistics on the US labour market were released – the dollar became heavier, bitcoin lighter. On Wednesday, 12 June, it turned out that inflation in the USA was decreasing – the dollar weakened, bitcoin became heavier. And in the evening, the Fed calmed the markets regarding the interest rate – and the scales swung back. Just look at the BTC/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) charts – the inverse correlation leaves no doubt.

In recent days, the flagship of the crypto market has lost about 7% in price. And the reason for this is the aforementioned monetary policy of the US Fed. Enthusiasm was not added by the fact that bitcoin-ETF inflows broke a 19-day streak. On 11 June alone, industry funds lost almost $65 million. The reasons are the same. They can be supplemented by the upcoming summer holiday season – a period of correction and lull in financial markets.

Traders note that recently, "digital gold" has been trading in a narrow range between $66,000 and $72,000. One of the popular market participants considers the lower mark an ideal entry point, while entry at the upper boundary of the range, in his words, carries high risk. MN Capital founder and analyst Michael van de Poppe does not rule out that pressure from sellers will persist in the near future. In such conditions, bitcoin may correct to $65,000 and even lower. However, van de Poppe does not expect a deep price drop. According to him, a large amount of liquidity is concentrated around the $60,000 area. This suggests that this level now acts as a strong support area, and positive dynamics can be supported by geopolitical instability.

According to surveys, more than 70% of the crypto community believe that BTC is on the verge of further growth. For instance, trader Captain Faibik is confident that bitcoin is preparing to break through the "expanding wedge" technical analysis pattern. According to him, breaking its upper boundary will open the path for the cryptocurrency to rise above $94,000. Trader Titan of Crypto, in turn, expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 this summer. The growth prospects of BTC are also indicated by the activity of large investors. According to industry representatives, whales are actively entering long positions on bitcoin. Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju clarified that the $69,000 level has become particularly attractive for large investors.

New Binance CEO Richard Teng, who replaced Changpeng Zhao, believes that bitcoin will soon exceed $80,000. Teng associates the potential new high with the work of spot BTC-ETFs, which have strengthened trust in the asset. The Binance CEO also allows for the legalisation of cryptocurrency if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States. Declaring himself the "crypto president," Trump said in May that the USA should lead the global crypto industry.

However, at present, cryptocurrency regulation measures are in the stage of development and implementation, which restrains investments. According to experts, current investments should be considered test cases. It should also be noted that spot ETFs have attracted significant liquidity only in the USA – there is no similar interest in most countries.

According to billionaire Mark Cuban, the attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be a key difference between US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden, although neither understands this issue. "Do you really think [Trump] understands anything about cryptography other than making money from selling NFTs?" Cuban asked. And he answered himself: "Neither of [the candidates] understands. But I've said many times that Biden will have to choose between [SEC Chair] Gary Gensler and crypto-voters, otherwise it could cost him the White House."

According to Bitfinex crypto exchange analysts, bitcoin's price could rise to $120,000-125,000 within a few months to half a year. Similar figures are named by BitGo crypto trust company CEO Mike Belshe. In his opinion, by the end of 2024, the first cryptocurrency will cost $125,000-135,000, and one of the catalysts will be the high level of US government debt. "Our macroeconomic climate continues to confirm the need for bitcoin. Undoubtedly, US government debt is out of control. [...] This situation supports the idea that bitcoin is the gold of the new generation," Belshe said.

He also noted that the US dollar is losing its position as the world reserve currency due to US foreign policy. The BitGo CEO believes that the country uses the dollar as a weapon and a means of manipulation. "Thus, the US debt crisis is one, foreign policy and sanction control is two. And BRICS offers alternative payment systems. [...] This is the story of why bitcoin exists," he concluded.

At the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 14 June, BTC/USD is trading at $65,800. The total crypto market capitalisation is $2.38 trillion ($2.54 trillion a week ago). Bitcoin's capitalisation has reached a solid $1.30 trillion, which, as experts warn, reduces the effect of future inflows. Pessimists say the asset is already "overheated," and to reach $125,000, its capitalisation must almost double. In their opinion, such a colossal influx during the overbought period is unlikely, so one should expect a correction and subsequent consolidation. The possibility of such an outcome is also hinted at by the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: over 7 days, it fell from 77 to 70 points and moved from the Extreme-Greed zone to the Greed zones.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Bernstein analysts have raised the target price for the first cryptocurrency to $200,000 by the end of 2025, up from $150,000. This forecast is driven by expectations of "unprecedented demand from bitcoin-based spot exchange-traded funds managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and others." "We believe that ETFs have become a turning point for cryptocurrencies, triggering structural demand from traditional capital pools. Together, ETFs have attracted about $15 billion in new net funds," Bernstein stated in a memo.
Experts at the company believe bitcoin is in a new bull cycle. They described halving as a unique situation where the natural selling pressure from miners is halved or more, creating new demand catalysts for cryptocurrency, "leading to exponential price movements."
Analysts pointed to previous cycles: in 2017, digital gold peaked at about five times the marginal cost of production and then fell to a low of 0.8 of this figure in 2018. "During the 2024-2027 cycle, we expect bitcoin to rise to 1.5 times the metric, implying a cyclical high of $200,000 by mid-2025," Bernstein concluded.

– For many years, there have been ongoing debates about the imperfections of the first cryptocurrency's concept. Some criticise its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, for lack of foresight, while others point to the project's technical shortcomings. To uncover what exactly is wrong with bitcoin, BeInCrypto asked the latest version of ChatGPT to analyse the cryptocurrency's whitepaper, which Nakamoto published in October 2008. The AI identified several flaws and errors in the key document of the crypto industry, including:
1. The 51% Rule. The whitepaper claims the network is secure if more than 50% of the power is controlled by honest participants. However, practice has shown that attacks are possible under certain conditions with fewer resources.
2. Anonymity. The document speaks of user anonymity, but bitcoin only offers pseudonymity. Transactions can be traced to specific users.
3. Scalability. The document does not predict the scalability issues that became apparent with the network's growing popularity. High transaction volumes lead to delays and increased fees.
4. Mining Difficulty. The author did not foresee the significant increase in mining difficulty and the impact of changes on the process's energy intensity. Modern mining requires enormous computing power and electricity.
5. Software Updates. The document does not address the need for regular software updates to maintain network security and implement new features.
6. Fork Resilience. The document does not consider the risks associated with network hard forks. Forks such as Bitcoin Cash polarise the community, potentially devaluing the network.
7. Regulation and Legal Issues. The document does not mention possible legal and regulatory obstacles for bitcoin. Since its publication, many countries have already introduced or are considering regulatory measures.

– Speaking at the BTC Prague 2024 conference, MicroStrategy head Michael Saylor stated that everyone gets bitcoin at the price they deserve. The entrepreneur admitted he once made a mistake by thinking bitcoin's days were numbered and that the coin was merely an asset for online gambling. According to Saylor, when bitcoin reaches $900,000, there will be those who claim the cryptocurrency is overbought and its price will crash, but then, when BTC reaches $8 million, they will buy at that price because they deserved it due to their disbelief in the main cryptocurrency's prospects.
The billionaire stated that bitcoin should be considered one of the safest assets today. He reiterated his view that the launch of spot ETFs-ETH provided strong support for the first cryptocurrency.
When asked by journalists whether it is worth selling bitcoins now, the entrepreneur replied that the asset currently lacks fundamental growth catalysts, but a price rise is expected soon. According to Michael Saylor, those who show patience will subsequently receive huge profits from holding digital gold.
For reference: MicroStrategy is the largest holder of bitcoins among public companies, with 205,000 BTC (over $13 billion) on its balance sheet.

– Euro Pacific Capital president and fierce cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff outlined a possible hedge fund strategy that could lead to the collapse of bitcoin and MicroStrategy. He believes investors in spot BTC ETFs view digital gold as a speculative asset. In a new tweet, Schiff noted that bitcoin has been in a "sideways" trend for the third month, trading below the March high. With such dynamics, investors may lose patience and at some point decide to close their positions, causing a BTC price collapse amid a lack of liquidity.

– Analysts at IntoTheBlock are puzzled by the current situation surrounding bitcoin. According to experts, usually bull markets for cryptocurrencies are fuelled by widespread enthusiasm around the digital coin. However, despite a surge in activity among large holders (whales), there is no influx of new market participants. In fact, the number of primary BTC users has plummeted to multi-year lows, falling to levels seen during the 2018 bear market. This lack of retail user growth creates a critical misunderstanding of why investors are not buying bitcoins.
"The current situation with bitcoin is characterised by high transaction volumes of $79.2 billion over the last 7 days and significant exchange flows ($6.0 billion inflows and $6.53 billion outflows for the week). Nevertheless, retail investors remain on the sidelines," noted IntoTheBlock. The explanation could be that 87% of them remain profitable at the current price and do not want to risk increasing their positions.

– US presidential candidate Donald Trump confirmed his intention to take a more favourable stance on cryptocurrencies compared to the current Biden administration. "Crooked Joe Biden, the worst president in our country's history, wants it to die a slow and painful death. Under my watch, this will never happen," he said. "I will end Joe Biden's war on cryptocurrencies and ensure that the future of cryptocurrencies and the future of bitcoin are secured in America!"
Trump expressed support for the mining industry, stating he wants all remaining bitcoins to be mined in the US. He also promised to make Florida the central hub for cryptocurrencies. This assurance came after Florida was recognised as the best state for digital asset taxes in the US, according to CoinLedger data. New York State was named the worst.

– General Partner at venture fund a16z and former Coinbase executive Balaji Srinivasan believes that in the foreseeable future, cryptocurrency will become a fundamental financial instrument and a core component of all economic transactions. In his opinion, the combination of advances in crypto technologies and artificial intelligence capabilities will lead to a new stage of the industrial revolution and the evolution of money. AI and robotics will generate industrial abundance, changing the paradigm of how we perceive and use money.
According to Srinivasan, the most important form of scarcity in the age of artificial intelligence will be private keys for managing robots, and Web3 technologies such as the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems will be the transport system for their payment and security management.

– Renowned investor and author of finance books Robert Kiyosaki strongly opposes fiat money, considering it "fake." He claims that wealthy individuals buy and save "real assets" such as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as gold and silver. To evaluate this investment philosophy, one can calculate the current value of $1,000 invested on January 1, 2024. This amount, as Kiyosaki recommends, is divided into five different assets, $200 each.
Starting with the king of cryptocurrencies, which has shown the most significant growth (53%), $200 invested in bitcoin would be worth $307.29 by June 13. Next among the growth leaders is Ethereum, which has risen by 49% since the beginning of 2024, increasing its value to $298.18. The third in the list is Solana, which grew by 48.39%. Initial investments in SOL of $200 as of June 13 are valued at $296.78.
Precious metals have shown more modest growth. Silver has risen by 22% in the first five and a half months, and gold has added only 12%. Thus, $200 invested in these assets on January 1 would now be worth $244.91 and $223.72, respectively. Therefore, the total value of Kiyosaki's portfolio would have increased by 37% by June 13, making the initial $1,000 worth $1,370.

– The international environmental group Greenpeace provided fresh data showing that bitcoin mining has become an industry dominated by traditional financial companies. They "buy and operate large, energy-consuming facilities." Greenpeace identified the five largest companies financing mining in 2022: Trinity Capital, Stone Ridge Holdings, BlackRock, Vanguard, and MassMutual. According to environmentalists, they are collectively responsible for more than 1.7 million metric tons of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 335,000 American households.
In 2023, global bitcoin mining consumed approximately 121 TWh of electricity, comparable to the energy consumption of a country like Poland. This led to significant carbon dioxide emissions, according to the Greenpeace report.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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