"I expect more like 5 years, actually. (Once the block reward is 6.25 BTC in 2020, mining is going to be very different.)" -- @jtoomim
Could be, but my bet is we don't see total fees ~= block reward till
at least the 2030s and probably later, assuming that the block size limit is free to float above demand.
[Regardless, techniques like subchains ameliorate the issue with the selfish mining anyways.]
"If demand doubles every year (like it has been), demand will be 32x larger in 5 years. On the other hand, the block reward will be 4x smaller. That means fees/subsidy will be about 128x larger."
Strongly disagree (with the bolded sentence only). The transaction fee market theory that I'm aware of (which includes
Houy's paper, to a certain extent Stone's paper, and my paper) would suggest something quite different. To a first-order approximation, the total fees in a block (
M) assuming a perfectly competitive market (and no fee pressure from an artificial block size limit) is
M =
z (
R /
T)
Q
where
z is the propagation/verification impedance (sec / MB),
R is the block reward,
T is the block time (10 min) and
Q is the size of the block.
In your example,
Q is 32x larger, but
R is 4x smaller. The total fees (
M) would then only be 8x larger (or a 32x increase in the ratio). But if we assume (very reasonable) that there's been a 4X reduction in the propagation/verification impedance, then the total fees would only be 2x greater (or a 8x increase in the fee-to-reward ratio).
This is good!
Otherwise the fees per transaction in $ terms would be huge!! A 32x increase in transactions would probably correlate to a price per coin between $12,800 (linear model) and $400,000 (Metcalfe model). If the fee per byte didn't fall, it would mean the real cost of a single transaction would be somewhere between
$1.25 and
$40!!
However, if the fees/byte measured in BTC fall like I described above, the price per transaction would then be between
$0.08 and
$2.50. To me, this seems a lot more reasonable for the cost of a transaction in 2020.
"I'm probably going to fall off of this thread for a few days. Sorry."
No need to apologize. I view these threads as sort of half talking to each other, and half speaking into the aether and seeing what comes back. Always love to have you stop by when you get a chance!