Something quick that I like to use to find the "resting" price after a period of volatility is this formula:
resting price = sqrt(cycle_low*cycle_high)
So, using Bitstamp figures, sqrt(198*502) = $315, which was close to where the price stabilised. So the current spike can be considered a breakout with new momentum, which I know is obvious now, but it is telling us that $315 is the new floor (bye-bye $200s