Recently, global capital markets have experienced significant volatility, with investor sentiment shifting from optimism to caution. The Nasdaq 100 futures dropped more than 1.3%, and the S&P 500 futures also declined, reflecting the pressure on the tech sector and deep concerns about trade prospects. Gold prices hit a new high, while the Swiss franc and euro strengthened, and U.S. Treasuries continued to be favored, indicating a collective move towards safe-haven assets. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy will delve into the logic behind the current market turbulence, the shift in investor sentiment, and potential adjustments in allocation directions.
Tech Sector Pullback
Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy notes that the decline in Nasdaq 100 futures was directly influenced by the substantial post-market drop of Nvidia, signaling the release of correction pressure faced by tech giants at high valuations. This pullback has affected individual company valuations and prompted a reevaluation of the overall valuation rationality of the tech sector.
The S&P 500 futures also fell by 0.8%, indicating that non-tech sectors are also impacted by sentiment transmission. Ng Jian Hao believes this phenomenon results from the confluence of geopolitical, trade friction, and financial policy factors. The ongoing global trade tensions show no significant easing, and the capital market lacking certainty in expectations leads to accelerated withdrawal from high-risk assets, shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries.
Ng Jian Hao analyzes that the rise in gold reflects increased demand for safe havens and is a forward-looking judgment on changes in the fiat currency credit environment. The divergence in global monetary policy paths and uncertain interest rate structures make gold, which offers no yield but has preservation characteristics, a temporary haven for long-term funds.
Currency Confrontation and Liquidity Risk
When analyzing the root causes of market fluctuations, Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy points out that this adjustment is also influenced by another potential variable: U.S. regulatory agencies are discussing a policy that may change banking transaction cost rules. If this rule adjustment favors banks, it will indirectly affect the market-making structure and overall liquidity level of financial markets.
Over the past two years, U.S. banks have gradually withdrawn from some high-volatility asset markets due to regulatory pressure, but if transaction costs decrease, market participation may be reactivated. Ng Jian Hao believes that although such policy discussions are in the early stages, market sentiment is highly sensitive, and any new policy signals can easily amplify short-term market fluctuations in the current environment lacking positive fundamental support.
From a currency perspective, the rise of the Swiss franc and euro has prompted a reevaluation of the dollar status. The strong dollar typically rises in tandem with risk-averse sentiment. In the current context where European currencies outperform the dollar, Ng Jian Hao believes that capital has not fully flowed back to the dollar, preferring structurally strong currencies. This may indicate that capital markets are reassessing the credit ratings of currency assets based on the fiscal health and inflation control capabilities of each country.
In terms of coping strategies, Ng Jian Hao suggests that the traditional “buy and hold” strategy is inadequate for handling rapid short-term market adjustments. Until market structures become clearer, flexible allocation strategies will be key. Investors can use hedging ETFs to reduce single asset exposure and utilize volatility indices for directional protection.
Market Summary and Strategy Adjustment
Facing the expanding market uncertainties, Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy states that investment strategies should gradually shift towards value anchoring, returning to the intrinsic yield and risk matching relationship of assets themselves. Short-term volatility may cause valuation disturbances, but long-term allocation needs to rely on genuine profitability and policy safety boundaries.
With gold prices reaching new highs and the bond market continuing to strengthen, traditional safe-haven assets are regaining investor favor. Ng Jian Hao believes this balance is a natural correction against excessive speculative behavior. In the context of weakened economic growth expectations and the gradual exhaustion of fiscal and monetary policy tools, the importance of prudent strategies is becoming increasingly prominent.
In the future, if trade risks continue to ferment or tech sector earnings deviate from expectations, a new market downturn may be triggered. Ng Jian Hao advises focusing on core assets with stable cash flows and low industry volatility, combined with periodic rebalancing strategies to reduce systemic risk exposure. At this stage, investors should not expect a rapid market recovery and should gradually establish a risk mitigation framework with a “dynamic defense” approach.
Tech Sector Pullback
Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy notes that the decline in Nasdaq 100 futures was directly influenced by the substantial post-market drop of Nvidia, signaling the release of correction pressure faced by tech giants at high valuations. This pullback has affected individual company valuations and prompted a reevaluation of the overall valuation rationality of the tech sector.
The S&P 500 futures also fell by 0.8%, indicating that non-tech sectors are also impacted by sentiment transmission. Ng Jian Hao believes this phenomenon results from the confluence of geopolitical, trade friction, and financial policy factors. The ongoing global trade tensions show no significant easing, and the capital market lacking certainty in expectations leads to accelerated withdrawal from high-risk assets, shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries.
Ng Jian Hao analyzes that the rise in gold reflects increased demand for safe havens and is a forward-looking judgment on changes in the fiat currency credit environment. The divergence in global monetary policy paths and uncertain interest rate structures make gold, which offers no yield but has preservation characteristics, a temporary haven for long-term funds.
Currency Confrontation and Liquidity Risk
When analyzing the root causes of market fluctuations, Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy points out that this adjustment is also influenced by another potential variable: U.S. regulatory agencies are discussing a policy that may change banking transaction cost rules. If this rule adjustment favors banks, it will indirectly affect the market-making structure and overall liquidity level of financial markets.
Over the past two years, U.S. banks have gradually withdrawn from some high-volatility asset markets due to regulatory pressure, but if transaction costs decrease, market participation may be reactivated. Ng Jian Hao believes that although such policy discussions are in the early stages, market sentiment is highly sensitive, and any new policy signals can easily amplify short-term market fluctuations in the current environment lacking positive fundamental support.
From a currency perspective, the rise of the Swiss franc and euro has prompted a reevaluation of the dollar status. The strong dollar typically rises in tandem with risk-averse sentiment. In the current context where European currencies outperform the dollar, Ng Jian Hao believes that capital has not fully flowed back to the dollar, preferring structurally strong currencies. This may indicate that capital markets are reassessing the credit ratings of currency assets based on the fiscal health and inflation control capabilities of each country.
In terms of coping strategies, Ng Jian Hao suggests that the traditional “buy and hold” strategy is inadequate for handling rapid short-term market adjustments. Until market structures become clearer, flexible allocation strategies will be key. Investors can use hedging ETFs to reduce single asset exposure and utilize volatility indices for directional protection.
Market Summary and Strategy Adjustment
Facing the expanding market uncertainties, Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy states that investment strategies should gradually shift towards value anchoring, returning to the intrinsic yield and risk matching relationship of assets themselves. Short-term volatility may cause valuation disturbances, but long-term allocation needs to rely on genuine profitability and policy safety boundaries.
With gold prices reaching new highs and the bond market continuing to strengthen, traditional safe-haven assets are regaining investor favor. Ng Jian Hao believes this balance is a natural correction against excessive speculative behavior. In the context of weakened economic growth expectations and the gradual exhaustion of fiscal and monetary policy tools, the importance of prudent strategies is becoming increasingly prominent.
In the future, if trade risks continue to ferment or tech sector earnings deviate from expectations, a new market downturn may be triggered. Ng Jian Hao advises focusing on core assets with stable cash flows and low industry volatility, combined with periodic rebalancing strategies to reduce systemic risk exposure. At this stage, investors should not expect a rapid market recovery and should gradually establish a risk mitigation framework with a “dynamic defense” approach.
