We know that seg wit already "raises the cap".
It does, but there is the question of when and how.
Segwit is still in testing and it seems unlikely it would be deployed before summer. After that of course we have the whole economy which needs to upgrade, so we are looking at autumn if we are super optimistic or next year. All three of these time lines are after the halving. That means dangers everywhere, but bitcoin being bitcoin I am sure it can handle them.
However, I prefer kissing my children rather than beating them up.
The how concerns the new potential attack vector segwit brings. As it is commonly known, actual normal space for segiwt is at around 1.6 or 1.7mb. However, an attacker is given 4mb. Next year, the hardfork is to increase maxblocksize to 2mb, with segwit on top that makes it 3.5 or so mb for normal usage, but an attacker is given 8mb. And what next, 5mb for normal users but 20 for attackers? 10mb for normal users but 100 for attackers?
The whole thing is design to make onchain scaling a punishment. It follows the same logic as flexicap whereby if miners want to increase the blocksize they have to pay a portion of their mining reward in exchange thus punishing them. So too segwit punishes everyone by incorporating a penalty in giving attackers far more blockspace than normal users.
This is all theoretical discussion though. Culprits always trip themselves. I'm not sure if you have read Edgar Allen Poe. What he rightly said is that little things betray murderers. A fallen hat, in the heat of things, an unnoticed receipt dropped from the pocket and so on, which when combined makes all obvious to all.
Reality is a merciless mistress. She, alone, rules.
