Drafting a SegWit2X hard fork bet


Well-Known Member
Aug 19, 2015
SegWit 2x Hard Fork bet

Parties to the bet: awemany (henceforth BB), FIXME (henceforth SB)

Arbiter: @Norway, FIXME(?)

Resolution by: Dec 2nd, 2017

Bet amount: 2.5BTC from each party

BB wins the bet if the Bitcoin blockchain with the largest
cumulative SHA256^2 hashing done since the genesis block
will contain a block of size larger than 1000000 (1 Million) Bytes
(excluding SegWit witness data) on Dec 1st, 2017 00:00 UTC,
as measured by the block time stamp closest to, but
before this date.

Otherwise, SB wins the bet.

Whoever wins the bet is paid out the sum of all coins in the bet
on all chains of non-trivial value that result from any fork
of the current Bitcoin blockchain, minus a 1% commission fee per chain.

The 1% commission fee goes to bitco.in user @Norway, full
name FIXME, who is also the arbiter of the bet.

If all parties agree, the bet can be resolved early.

BB pays an amount of 2.5 BTC to address FIXME and
SB pays an amount of 2.5 BTC to address FIXME.

These addresses are under control of arbiter @Norway.

@Norway will additionally provide two time-locked transactions to each bet party
that will pay their respective amount back, should he not be
able to resolve the bet within time. The time locks expire sometime within
2018, at @Norway's discretion.

On the majority hash power chain, payout for BB will happen to address FIXME and payout to SB will happen to address FIXME.

Signed, SB, BB, @Norway (signatures here)

@Norway, is a 1% comission good enough for you?
@Peter R. any loopholes? Do you also have just one arbiter, dooglus? :)
(took some minor inspiration from you and RHavar's bet)
Last edited:
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Peter R

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
I think there's an error somewhere as it seems like SB=FIXME=NORWAY.

Other than that, it looks fine to me. Basically, you win if 2X goes through on time and with majority hash power.
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Well-Known Member
Aug 19, 2015
@Peter R.: Thanks. Well, I put "FIXME" in the arbiter line above, as I wondered whether it is good to have two arbiters. I don't see any confusion regarding Norway and smallblocker (SB)?
You had just @dooglus as arbiter, right? I am fine with just @Norway (I met him and he's a public figure) as arbiter, don't know about the other party to the bet, however.