Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Watch FXOpen's 11 - 15 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: GBP/USD, DOLLAR TRYING TO UPWARD, GOLD PRICE EYES RECOVERY.


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • GBP/USD analysis: Price sets a minimum of 3 months after GDP news
  • Dollar trying to resume upward movement after rise in core CPI
  • Gold price eyes recovery while crude oil price surges
  • Market reaction to the ECB's decision to raise rates to 4.5%

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S&P 500 under Pressure ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting


The decision on the base interest rate will be published tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, and Powell will hold a press conference at 21:30. Although most experts, as reported by the media, expect that the current rate will remain, market participants will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's assessment of the current situation, which includes new data on inflation and the labour market. It is possible that there will be another rate increase before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 chart shows the market under pressure in mid-September, although the overall picture appears balanced.

The balance of supply and demand is indicated by the fact that the movement B→C is approximately 50% of the movement A→B. And the C→D movement is approximately 50% of the B→C movement. That is, fluctuations die out as buyers and sellers converge.

The price is still within the ascending channel (shown in blue), but it is possible that during tomorrow's news announcement from the Federal Reserve there will be an attempt by the bears to break through it.



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Cryptocurrency Prices Rise on SEC Rumours


Various media outlets report the opinion that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed in a personal conversation. He allegedly intends to approve applications for the creation of ETFs related to the cryptocurrency spot markets. Such applications were submitted by BlackRock, Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie and other respectable funds. But for now, the SEC's decision on the applications has been delayed.

At the same time, it is reported that by giving the go-ahead to applications, Gary Gensler can thereby gain loyalty from the funds, and after the end of his period as head of the SEC, go to work for one of them.

Against the backdrop of the information mentioned, the crypto markets perked up — the prices of bitcoin, Ether and other assets rose by approximately 3% in a few hours. However, it is unlikely that such rumors can become a driver for creating a sustainable trend.



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Watch FXOpen's 18 - 22 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: UK STOCK MARKET RISES, S&P 500 FALLS, OIL ANALYSIS, EUR/GBP


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • UK stock market rises amid inflation news #UKStockMarket #UKinflation
  • S&P 500 falls amid news from the Fed S&P500 #Fed
  • Oil analysis: Finally, a bearish reversal? #Oil
  • Will stagflation persist in the UK? EUR/GBP volatility may be an indicator #EURGBP #stagflation

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Bitcoin Cash Analysis: Promising Resistance Breakout


Yesterday, the head of the SEC regulator, Gary Gensler, answered questions for 4 hours before the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives, which, among other things, related to cryptocurrencies.

What has become known:

→ on the eve of the hearing, Gary Gensler was sent a letter from four members of the US Congress demanding approval of applications for ETFs based on cryptocurrencies;
→ the head of the SEC avoided answering questions about the timing of decisions on these applications, although he noted that if the agency’s work was stopped on October 1 (like other government agencies), this would slow down the process;
→ for participants in the cryptocurrency market, the event could have given a positive impetus if Gensler’s words had contained hints of positivity, but he once again spoke out about the dangerous prohibited practices that crypto firms use.



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Watch FXOpen's 25 - 29 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Inflation, EUR/USD, S&P 500, OIL


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Inflation Still Dogs the Economy: What Are the Central Banks Doing About It?
  • Market Analysis: EUR/USD Takes Hit While USD/CHF Surges
  • S&P 500 Analysis: Price Reaches The Edge of Abyss
  • Market Analysis: Oil Surges to a New High of the Year

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Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month High


As the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.

It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.

However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.

Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.



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Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k


The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.

Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.

Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 

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Watch FXOpen's 9 - 13 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: OIL & ISRAEL-GAZA CONFLICT , S&P 500 POSITIVE, GOLD RISEN.


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets: US Stocks Decline, Oil Surges Amid Israel-Gaza Conflict #Oil
  • E-mini S&P 500 Positive Ahead of Earnings Season #eminiS&P500 #earningsseason
  • Markets awaiting US inflation data #USinflation
  • The price of gold has risen more than 5% since last Friday #Gold

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Wall Street Awaits Earnings from Tesla and Netflix


According to Yahoo Finance, the third-quarter earnings season started well despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Already, 32 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, according to Bank of America Research's equity strategy group. Moreover:
→ actual earnings per share exceeded Wall Street expectations by an average of 9%;
→ EPS increased 1% compared to the same quarter last year, which is a positive sign.

This week's headliners could be reports from Tesla and Netflix, which are important components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.



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Bitcoin Tests Psychological Level of $30k


Paradoxically, cryptocurrencies, which conceptually pursue decentralization goals, have become overly sensitive to regulatory news.

Surprising news from Cointelegraph that the SEC would approve an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock raised the price of the coin to USD 30,000.

The market’s positivity was added by the opinion of SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who believes that Bitcoin’s capitalization can with ease reach USD 15 trillion due to the actions of the Fed and global de-dollarization.

On some crypto exchanges, the price of derivatives associated with the main cryptocurrency even significantly exceeded the psychological mark of USD 30k.

However, Cointelegraph later deleted the post.

And on Tuesday morning, the BTC/USD rate consolidated below 29k USD.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 

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Watch FXOpen's 16 - 20 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: POUND RISES, NASDAQ SEES A DIP, NFLX PRICE SOARS 12%, OIL


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Inflation Stabilizes, Pound Rises in Price #Inflation #GBP
  • Volatility and Geopolitics Grip US Stocks as NASDAQ Sees a Dip #NASDAQ
  • On Factors Influencing the Price of Oil: Biden, Israel, Venezuela #Oil
  • NFLX price soars 12% after strong report #NFLX #Netflix #earningsreport

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GBP/USD Attempts Recovery, USD/CAD Grinds Higher


GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2090. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for a move above the 1.3720 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is struggling to gain pace for a move above the 1.2200 region.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2170 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3670 support zone.
  • There is a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near 1.3720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2140 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.2115 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2090 level. A low was formed near 1.2093 and the pair is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.

There was a fresh upside above the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2191 swing high to the 1.2093 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a key bearish trend line at 1.2170. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2191 swing high to the 1.2093 low. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 1.2190 level.

A close above the 1.2190 resistance might spark a decent recovery wave. The next major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2300 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2140. The next major support sits at 1.2115, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2020.

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Bitcoin Breaks Psychological Level of $30k


On Friday-Sunday, the price of BTC/USD several times exceeded the round level of 30,000, but the excess was short-lived; soon, the price rolled back down. But the pressure of the bulls did not weaken, and since the beginning of Monday, the price of bitcoin rose above 37,000.

A combination of bullish factors contributed to the rise in bitcoin prices:
→ the threat of a financial crisis in the USA. Congress without a speaker, the budget has not been approved, the S&P-500 is near its 5-month low. Legendary investor Peter Schiff expresses the opinion that a crisis is inevitable due to the actions of the Fed.
→ Expectations that the SEC will approve a bitcoin ETF in the near future, and this will open bitcoin to institutional investors. According to JPMorgan, this will happen within a few months. Positive signals will come from BlackRock and VanEck, which have filed bids.
→ Refusal by the SEC to claim against Ripple Labs.
→ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin is gaining relevance as an asset that can become a safe haven for capital.



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Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization Sets Year's High


Amid the frenzy over expectations that the SEC will approve applications for spot bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency market capitalization reached USD 1.25 trillion this morning, for the first time in 2023. Expectations have increased following reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will not appeal a court ruling that the rejection of Grayscale Investments' ETF application was improper.

It is important to understand that an ETF is a financial instrument that will allow a wide range of people to easily officially invest in bitcoin without opening an account on a crypto exchange, which can be associated with difficulties and dangers.



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Watch FXOpen's 23 - 27 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: THE YEN WEAKENS, NASDAQ ENTERS CORRECTION, GOLD STABILISES


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • USD/JPY: New High of the Year #usdjpy
  • The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction #nasdaq
  • Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs #gold
  • Google report crashes stock price #google

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S&P 500 Analysis: Powell Adds Bullish Momentum


As expected, the Fed left the rate unchanged. Market participants' attention was focused on Powell's press conference, as he said:
→ Risks have now become almost balanced;
→ Inflation expectations are at a good level.

The media publishes the opinions of experts who generally agree that although Jerome Powell has not ruled out the possibility of another rate increase, he does not seem to be very supportive of this idea. So the Fed is not as aggressive as it could be.

As a result, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 20%, and the probability that the rate hike cycle has ended is at 70%.



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Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year


The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.



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BTC/USD Analysis: New High of the Year


The bitcoin rate exceeded USD 36,500 per coin for the first time in 2023.

This is fueled by pending approval of Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. According to the latest information, SEC representatives are in contact with the Grayscale fund, one of those who submitted applications. This increased confidence that applications would be approved. Moreover:
→ applications can be approved all together and then several ETFs will start working simultaneously, making it possible that potentially billions of dollars will be directed to the purchase of bitcoins;
→ this can happen before January 10, 2024.

The creation of ETFs will open up new opportunities for a wide range of investors to easily invest in the main cryptocurrency, while reducing the risks associated with opening an account on a crypto exchange, hacked wallets, or sanctions from regulators.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the price of bitcoin broke through the USD 36,000 level on an expanding candle, indicating the strength of demand.

How far can the bitcoin rate go up?



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ETH/USD Growing Rapidly on News from BlackRock


As it became known, BlackRock has filed an application with the SEC for an ETF based on spot Ethereum. Information about the iShares Ethereum Trust appeared on the Nasdaq website.

If such an expression is acceptable, the price of the second cryptocurrency has gone in pursuit of bitcoin, which is rewriting the highs of the year amid expectations associated with the approval of applications for ETFs for spot bitcoin — approval from the SEC already seems inevitable.

In just 10 hours after the news was published, the price of ETH/USD increased by more than 10%. The excitement is fueled by speculation that other Wall Street giants may file bids after BlackRock.

The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of Ethereum came close to the year’s high at 2140, set in April;
→ RSI indicates that the market is extremely overbought, which means it is vulnerable to a pullback.



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Watch FXOpen's 06 - 10 November Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: OIL FALLS, S&P500’s BEST WEEK, GOLD DROPS, EUR/JPY: NEW HIGH


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July #Oil
  • S&P 500: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market #S&P500
  • Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950 #Gold
  • EUR/JPY: New High of the Year #eurjpy

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BTC/USD Analysis: JP Morgan Analysts Warn of a Possible Correction


Last week, the BTC/USD rate rose to the level of USD 38k per coin on the excitement associated with the expected launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, as the week begins, bitcoin price performance shows signs that the hype appears to be waning:

→ the speed with which the price dropped from the upper boundary of the channel and the high of the year to the middle of the channel (about -USD 1,700 in a few hours) indicates the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ the price tried to resume its upward trend, but failed. This can be seen from the downward reversals from the level of 37,500
→ the fact that the slopes of trend lines (shown in black) become less sharp is also a sign of weakening bullish sentiment.

It turns out that after a pronounced surge last week, the price has already dropped below the median line of the channel, and the MACD remains in the red zone.



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Morgan Stanley Analysts Raise Forecasts for S&P 500


According to them:
→ the price of the S&P 500 index will reach 4,500 at the end of the year (previous forecast = 4,200);
→ the dollar will continue to remain strong.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, published yesterday, the price of the S&P 500 index will fluctuate around current levels, forming a consolidation zone.

That is, a decline in the S&P 500 is not a priority scenario. An important test that will provide more important information about current market sentiment will occur today: US inflation data will be published at 16:30 GMT+3. According to forecasts, it will slow down from 3.7% to 3.3%.



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BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Aggressively Defending 37,500 Level


The cryptocurrency market continues to be dominated by expectations for SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs. A decision is expected by January 10. Although expectations alone do not seem to be enough at the moment to overcome the resistance level of 37,500, which became obvious this week.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the bulls attacked the level 4 times.

At the same time, attempts 1-2-3 indicate a gradual weakening of the impulse.

Attempt number 4 had new fuel, as the growth rate was impressive. Moreover, the bulls even managed to overcome the level of 37,500. However, as the chart shows, not for long. The bears successfully coped with the attack and not only prevented the price from consolidating above 37,500, but also pushed it back to the lines from which the attack began.

Moreover, attempt number 4 brought an update to the maximum of the year, but the form in which it was made raises concerns. Because short-term exceeding top 1 is a bull trap.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 

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Watch FXOpen's 13 - 17 November Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/GBP’s NEW HIGH, US INFLATION, S&P500 FORECAST, BRENT CRUDE


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • EUR/GBP: Price Reaches 6-month High #EURGBP
  • Important News on US Inflation Rock Financial Markets #USInflation
  • Morgan Stanley Analysts Raise Forecasts for S&P 500 #SP500
  • Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024 #BrentCrude

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Watch FXOpen's 20 - 24 November Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: NASDAQ’S NEW TOP, USD/CAD NEWS, WTI OIL, NVDA SHARES DECLINE


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • NASDAQ: New Top of the Year #NASDAQ
  • USD/CAD: The Rate Approaching Important Support #USDCAD
  • The Price of WTI Oil Forming a Reversal Pattern #WTIOil
  • NVDA shares decline after strong report #NVDA

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