Celebrating the upcoming "1MB Is Dead" event

solex

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Aug 22, 2015
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How to celebrate the first block >1MB to get six confirmations on the Bitcoin main-chain?

Brain-dump thread for random ideas. A better reason for a party than price hitting $1,000?

 

Fatman3002

Active Member
Sep 5, 2015
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Assuming it's smaller than 1,44mb we could cram it on a floppy.

Edit: perhaps have a downloadable file on the forum or its own webpage so other people can easily cram it on a floppy, paint it gold and hang it on the wall. Core fans could cram it on a floppy, shoot the floppy and show the videos on youtube.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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i'd rather have price hit $1000.
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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> How to celebrate the first block >1MB
> I'd rather have price hit $1000.

WhyNotBoth.gif?
 

Tago

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Sep 8, 2015
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i'd rather have price hit $1000.
Why do you want the price to be $1,000? Are you wanting to cash out? I'm not sure $1,000 is a reasonable price for bitcoin right now sadly. $200 is even looking questionable. That being said I never thought we would hit $10.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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@Tago

b/c the long term success of Bitcoin is tied to a higher price. we need that higher price to be able to move larger numbers of high value tx's across the net. a BTC buy of a $5M house would today disrupt the price exchange violently. but if the exchange mkt cap was $100B, not at all. simple math.

at higher prices, you're right, many early adopters will unload their large stashes partially. but that is what you want, redistribution of coins. the more the better, which will create better resiliency in the price going forward. nothing wrong with that.
 
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Tago

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Sep 8, 2015
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A stable price at $1,000 would be good for bitcoin, I just assumed however if we did reach that price in a near future it would crash back down to where we are now. Instability like that is more harmful than market depth. We have not even found the low from the fake gox run up of 13.

I think a stable price at $1,000 is way off in the future unless we get some massive continuing inflow of fiat from somewhere. I do not see this happening. Sadly I see it more likely that some one else like apple, google or some large bank will make their own coin and fiat flows to that. I'm still shocked we are even at $200.
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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If Bitcoin bubbles again--and I think it will--it will take out $1,000 like a knife through butter, slingshot past the price of gold, and enter a hyperbolic trajectory peaking in the five figures.

Bitcoin will never have a stable price of $1,000 :)
 

Tago

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Sep 8, 2015
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well, it does tend to jump hyperbolically. ltc just went $1 to $8.5ish back to $2 in a few weeks. maybe stability is just something we will never have, or maybe it is way too early.

btw peter, love your charts. people send them to me from time to time. do you have a site by chance?
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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>btw peter, love your charts. people send them to me from time to time. do you have a site by chance?

Thank you for the compliment! I don't have a site, unfortunately.
 
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solex

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Aug 22, 2015
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@Tago

b/c the long term success of Bitcoin is tied to a higher price. we need that higher price to be able to move larger numbers of high value tx's across the net. a BTC buy of a $5M house would today disrupt the price exchange violently. but if the exchange mkt cap was $100B, not at all. simple math.

at higher prices, you're right, many early adopters will unload their large stashes partially. but that is what you want, redistribution of coins. the more the better, which will create better resiliency in the price going forward. nothing wrong with that.
Absolutely right Cypher. This is the big picture view which Core Dev are unable to comprehend. It is what needs to happen.

Why do you want the price to be $1,000? Are you wanting to cash out? I'm not sure $1,000 is a reasonable price for bitcoin right now sadly. $200 is even looking questionable. That being said I never thought we would hit $10.
The cost of mining is a solid floor (unless there is a massive technical failure like a problem with SHA256). What does it take in terms of hardware, rent, electricity, tech support to mine 1 BTC? Perhaps between $100 and $200. No one knows accurately, but there is a price in that range where sales of new coins would dry up.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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@solex

And that cost floor is what prevents POS altcoins from taking over. There is a real world cost associated with the production of a bitcoin whereas in POS, it's just code, which costs nothing to produce. There is a huge amount of investment monies already embedded in constructing the ledger which provides enormous security to date.

None of this is new info to the old readers though.

What is new is the concept of growing the userbase as necessary for maximal decentralization and value growth. Surprisingly. I thought it was a no brainer all along but it appears I was mistaken.
 

Fatman3002

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Sep 5, 2015
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The cost of mining is a solid floor (unless there is a massive technical failure like a problem with SHA256). What does it take in terms of hardware, rent, electricity, tech support to mine 1 BTC? Perhaps between $100 and $200. No one knows accurately, but there is a price in that range where sales of new coins would dry up.
I don't understand how you're thinking.

If the price goes below current average mining costs some miners will stop mining and the ones that are still profitable will get a larger share. But it will take more coins to pay for their expenses, so more coins will be dumped on the market.
 

solex

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Aug 22, 2015
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@Fatman3002
Agreed that some miners will stop mining, and the others remaining get a larger share. But how much variation is there in mining profitability and how quickly will some stop mining? One week the price could be high enough for them all to be profitable, then the next week drop past where most are not profitable. Miners might hoard waiting for the price to recover.

So far we have not really seen difficulty move down with price. You are right if difficulty makes a sustained downtrend.
 

Fatman3002

Active Member
Sep 5, 2015
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@solex
Miners might want to hoard, but their electricity provider and bank would probably like to get paid. In fiat. My point is that the "solid floor" you refer to is more like a sinkhole.
You might not have seen a sustained downtrend, but we've been practically flat while mining efficiency has improved 4x. A lot of big actors have left the field already.
 

molecular

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Aug 31, 2015
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@Fatman3002
So far we have not really seen difficulty move down with price. You are right if difficulty makes a sustained downtrend.
you probably mean since last ATH? Because otherwise we've surely seen exactly that: in 2nd half of 2011 price was declining and difficulty "followed". Note that during that time, innovation in mining efficiency was very low (on par with performance increase in GPUs, which is/was almost negligible compared to what has been and still is happening with the ASICs. In that regard I agree with @Fatman3002: the mining landscape has been in a consolidation/reduction phase during the recent price decline, it's just masked by the ongoing and substantial general mining efficiency increase.
 

molecular

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Aug 31, 2015
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The cost of mining is a solid floor (unless there is a massive technical failure like a problem with SHA256). What does it take in terms of hardware, rent, electricity, tech support to mine 1 BTC?
I think that's not the case."What it takes to mine 1 BTC" isn't constant, it depends on the difficulty for one thing.

Perhaps between $100 and $200. No one knows accurately, but there is a price in that range where sales of new coins would dry up.
Miners have to sell to cover cost. If anything the percentage they hoard decreases with price (they sell more) until the more inefficient ones start dropping out and difficulty starts to fall. Overall fiat cost of miners in aggregate has now decreased and hence 1 BTC can now be produced more cheaply.

Mining doesn't put a floor under the price. Usage does.
 

theZerg

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Aug 28, 2015
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I think that you are both probably correct. Over the short term, a miner must keep the hardware on even if the HW won't ROI because it is still making more then daily expenses (mostly electricity but also physical space & maintenance). But over the long term, this pricing pressure will see more miners shut off or more replacements then physical expansions. This will limit supply as the average block discovery time meets or exceeds the nominal 10 minute period.

Also, the hand-to-mouth miners (who must sell to pay bills) will get wiped out (probably already happened) whereas the well-capitalized miners who don't need to sell for years will keep going. And a dropping price like from 1200 to 200 created the vicious cycle that forced miners to sell coin dropping the price causing more sales. But a stable or slightly increasing price (like we have now) lets miners execute their strategy -- which most likely at this point is to hold at least until 6 months beyond the halving :). For a company with a long enough time frame to develop and source its own asics, the halving is just around the corner.