Hi
@reina
Indeed no one can be sure of the exact makeup of full node implementations in the mining percentages. We need to start from a known base, and that is 100% of the miners are using ABC compatible software from 15 May 2018. We can only assume the same will happen at 15 November unless miners
publicly state otherwise. This is via their official social media accounts, or via coinbase input scriptsig free text.
I think the problem with using this 'known base' is that we also know all the miners were compatible to BU, or XT, or any Bitcoin Cash implementation that existed on 15th May 2018. So that's perhaps a bad metric to use, because now all these implementations have different strategies.
I think Tom Harding and XT's position here is solid (emphasis is my own):
"
We intend for XT to follow the most-work chain and will add whatever software support is needed to do that.
Right now it is unclear what rules the most-work chain will follow after November and we have not added software support for any changes, though we are preparing for likely scenarios.
XT recommends and will support what we consider to be a superior way to upgrade the network in November and thereafter. That is by
activating individual features using BIP135 which defines an orderly way to activate an upgrade that has an agreed supermajority level of mining support. If your client supports BIP135 and the network defines the potential upgrades consistently, you will not be forked off regardless of whether the upgrade succeeds or fails.
BIP135 is an extension of BIP9 which has been used successfully in the past -- both to activate an upgrade (relative locktimes) and to reject an upgrade (segwit, though it was later activated by other tactics)."
I wonder what are your thoughts on that? And
@theZerg's thoughts?
The way we push ABC's changes into default is very contrary to miners making a conscious decision to signal for particular features, and phase them in when they are ready and want it. Especially features that are totally incompatible with the existing network, like CTOR, the consequences of which are not fully tested.
And because this BUIP only gave these two options, it is like being stuck between a rock and a hard place: Choosing choice is better than no choice (ABC ruleset only) but I think there is now a layer of complexity for miners and upcoming disturbance for the mining network, because they only have a rough idea of the hash that is going to be involved. There is no clear hash majority.
We know 30-40% of the hash-rate is publicly advocating for SV client usage, rejecting the ABC change-set, from 15 November. That leaves 60-70% either continuing to support the ABC change-set or not voicing an opinion. This obviously includes the mining power using the BU client at present.
I stand by my original assessment of the visible BCH pool's alliances as far as we can assume based on what they say and their affiliiation:
33% SV rule support
23-33% ABC rule support
33%-43% ? support or even no-forkers (havent really said anything public about what they will support)
It's could possibly be a mexican standoff at this rate. 14.9% of BCH blocks were mined by unknown miners, someone or multiple people or pools have hash that's not currently pointed to mine BCH. It's one big cowboy rules shootout. I still haven't found anyone give a convincing reason to why CTOR needs to be included in Nov, rather than any time it's more tested or fully fleshed out or proven. It's costly to Bitcoin Cash and to Bitcoin. I wish the best to miners to defend the future of Bitcoin.
Non-mining nodes have an importance which is relative to their economic footprint and some of these are large, e.g. Bitfinex, BitPay, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitkan, Yours.org, etc, so their situation needs to be considered. It is irresponsible to ignore them and have them scrambling to maintain business uptime with an emergency upgrade if they wind-up on a minority fork.
It is true that businesses are part of this framework, I wonder if they were present at the miner summit too? Any public opinions from these businesses?
I suspect that the vast majority of BCH-using businesses do not have a preference for the ABC or SV roadmaps, but just want to make profit tracking the most-PoW BCH chain-tip.
It could be a dangerous assumption. I know that for Lighthouse Cash project, the ABC changes for Nov would actually break what they are working on, they mentioned this. It would require code changes for them, and they could be representative of other projects and businesses too: Unwanted hassle from an unwanted network "upgrade" from ABC, with no realisable reward, either now or in the near future. Could go down in Bitcoin Cash history as perhaps the worse feature since the DDA, worst than the chain-splitting ABC bug that was discovered by Cory Fields.
Now we are just all here staring at this high risk thing in plain sight, watching as we slowly glide into Nov with merchants and users shaking in their boots, worried. It's not a good sight, and the burden should be on the feature to proof it is good and beneficial first before it is added. I think everyone here who is a BU member has agreed to the Articles of Federation, and
The merchants and services have no assurances on what is the majority in Nov, while one of the rulesets may break their currently functional services. Many businesses may not be at the luxury or position of BU to be able to support two different rulesets, at the flick of a switch.
The SV ruleset doesn't seem to require any reworking of current products or services. The SV ruleset introduces maybe stuff they don't use (some OP_codes) but not the stuff absolutely everyone uses, like natural ordering. Tom Zander argued forced CTOR may even hurt parallelisation.
But now here we are: Default ABC rules. There are so many risks and concerns coming from many directions, and even unknown factors, that I don't know how this can be considered ok to add into the network next month, let alone give to the user as the default.
I do note however, that BUIP098 has significant BU membership support*, so it does look like BU will be providing a client that will support both ABC and SV change-sets. It is certainly the intention to make this as easy for users as possible to select preference, ideally adding an automatic setting too.
*voting in progress at the time of writing
If we really wanted users to make a conscious decision on this important situation, maybe it helps to have a popup when you load the new BU release, where it asks you to preselect the ruleset you want the software to follow: ABC or SV. Then ask if they want to follow this ruleset no matter what, or automatically follow the rules of the most-work chain when it appears.[/QUOTE]