A model for estimating the block halving date (with meaningful error bounds)?


Active Member
Sep 21, 2015
I am trying to plan a block halving party... and I'm willing for it to be a loooooong party (3 days), to increase the odds that block halving takes place during the party.

Let's say that I am comfortable with a 20% chance of missing the block halving event during the party.

I need a model to help me answer the following questions:
1) How long should I wait before sending out invitations? (at some point, say, in May of 2016, the odds of getting the block halving date right within a 3 day window should be higher than 90% I would think).
2) From today's perspective, what would the block halving date be?

I'm more interested in the model than the answer itself. If nobody replies with one, I might end up working on it myself.
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