- Dec 6, 2017
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GBP/USD: BoE Hawks Morph into Doves
Data on consumer inflation in the UK, released on Wednesday, March 20, a day ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, indicated a slight deceleration and fell a bit below expectations. The year-on-year CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.4%, against the anticipated 3.5%. February's core CPI, on an annual basis, dropped to 4.5% after three months of stability at 5.1%. Conversely, the CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% following a decline of the same magnitude in January, yet this increase still fell short of the market's 0.7% expectation. February saw producer purchase prices decrease by 0.4%, with a year-on-year loss of 2.7%, returning to levels seen in May 2022 due to decreases in energy, metals, and some agricultural product prices.
Just a few hours before the regulator's meeting, preliminary business activity data were also released, showing positive but mixed results. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, closely approaching the critical 50.0 mark (with a forecast of 47.8 and a previous value of 47.5). The services sector index, in contrast, dropped from 53.8 to 53.4, despite expectations that it would hold steady. Consequently, the Composite PMI edged down from 53.0 to 52.9, remaining within the growth zone of the economy.
Regarding the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, March 21, as expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the economy has not yet reached the stage where rates can be lowered but added that everything is moving in the "right direction."
The surprise came when two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who had previously voted for a rate increase, reversed their position, leading to renewed selling of the pound. According to economists at Japan's MUFG Bank, the voting outcome "justifies an increased likelihood of an earlier rate cut than we had anticipated. [...] Whether the Bank of England makes the final decision in June or August remains an open question. We maintain our view that there will be a rate cut of 100 basis points this year." "The pound could suffer further in the short term if the market's conviction in a June rate cut strengthens, along with the potential magnitude of rate cuts for this year," the MUFG specialists added.
"Indeed, the Bank of England has taken another step towards reducing interest rates," echo their colleagues at Germany's Commerzbank. "But whether this will happen sooner than expected, simply because none of the policymakers voted for a rate increase, is not entirely clear yet." Commerzbank believes that "against the backdrop of the overall dovish sentiment triggered by the SNB's unexpected rate cut, the pound ended up on the losing side and became the second-worst currency. Also, depending on market sentiments, it has the chance to become one of the most vulnerable currencies."
Starting the past week at a level of 1.2734, GBP/USD concluded it at 1.2599. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were split: half (50%) voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and 25% maintained neutrality. The indicator readings on D1 are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Among oscillators, only 15% look north, 85% south, with a quarter of them signalling the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, 10% recommend buying, and 90% selling. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2635, 1.2730-1.2755, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.
No significant events related to the economy of the United Kingdom are scheduled for the upcoming week. Traders should also bear in mind that March 29 is a public holiday in the country due to Good Friday.
USD/JPY: How the BoJ Sank the Yen
In theory, if the interest rate rises, the currency strengthens. But that's just in theory. Reality can differ significantly, as demonstrated by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday, March 19.
Until that point, the BoJ had been the only central bank in the world to maintain a negative interest rate level of -0.1% since February 2016. Now, for the first time in 17 years, the regulator raised it to a range of 0.0-0.1% per annum. It also abandoned control over the yield of ten-year government bonds (YCC). As media reports, this move "represents a departure from the most aggressive and unconventional monetary easing policy we have seen in modern history." Yet, following this momentous decision, instead of appreciating, the yen ... plummeted, and USD/JPY reached a high of 151.85. Analysts believe this happened because each of these central bank actions met market expectations and had already been priced in.
Data on inflation in Japan for February, published towards the end of the workweek, offered some support to the Japanese currency. The country's Statistical Bureau reported that the annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8%, up from 2.2% previously. As a result, investors concluded that the persistence of price pressure above the target level of 2.0% would allow the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at a positive level.
However, maintaining rates does not mean increasing them. And as economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, wrote, the yen's position depends more on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts than on a rate hike by the BoJ. They stated: "It will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond volatility around the rate hike until rates in the US are lowered."
The yen received another, but very weak, support from growing speculations about possible intervention by the Japanese government in the currency sphere, in simpler terms, about currency interventions. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, did declare that currency movements should be stable and that he is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations. However, these were merely words, not concrete actions, thus they didn't significantly aid the national currency. As a result, the week concluded with the pair marking the final note at 151.43.
Regarding the near future of USD/JPY, the bearish camp for the pair comprises 50% of experts, 40% remain undecided, and 10% voted for further strengthening of the US currency. Technical analysis tools seem to be unaware of rumours about possible currency interventions. Consequently, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing upwards, with 20% of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels are found at 150.85, 149.70, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.
On Friday, March 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. Besides this, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.
continued below...
Data on consumer inflation in the UK, released on Wednesday, March 20, a day ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, indicated a slight deceleration and fell a bit below expectations. The year-on-year CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.4%, against the anticipated 3.5%. February's core CPI, on an annual basis, dropped to 4.5% after three months of stability at 5.1%. Conversely, the CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% following a decline of the same magnitude in January, yet this increase still fell short of the market's 0.7% expectation. February saw producer purchase prices decrease by 0.4%, with a year-on-year loss of 2.7%, returning to levels seen in May 2022 due to decreases in energy, metals, and some agricultural product prices.
Just a few hours before the regulator's meeting, preliminary business activity data were also released, showing positive but mixed results. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, closely approaching the critical 50.0 mark (with a forecast of 47.8 and a previous value of 47.5). The services sector index, in contrast, dropped from 53.8 to 53.4, despite expectations that it would hold steady. Consequently, the Composite PMI edged down from 53.0 to 52.9, remaining within the growth zone of the economy.
Regarding the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, March 21, as expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the economy has not yet reached the stage where rates can be lowered but added that everything is moving in the "right direction."
The surprise came when two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who had previously voted for a rate increase, reversed their position, leading to renewed selling of the pound. According to economists at Japan's MUFG Bank, the voting outcome "justifies an increased likelihood of an earlier rate cut than we had anticipated. [...] Whether the Bank of England makes the final decision in June or August remains an open question. We maintain our view that there will be a rate cut of 100 basis points this year." "The pound could suffer further in the short term if the market's conviction in a June rate cut strengthens, along with the potential magnitude of rate cuts for this year," the MUFG specialists added.
"Indeed, the Bank of England has taken another step towards reducing interest rates," echo their colleagues at Germany's Commerzbank. "But whether this will happen sooner than expected, simply because none of the policymakers voted for a rate increase, is not entirely clear yet." Commerzbank believes that "against the backdrop of the overall dovish sentiment triggered by the SNB's unexpected rate cut, the pound ended up on the losing side and became the second-worst currency. Also, depending on market sentiments, it has the chance to become one of the most vulnerable currencies."
Starting the past week at a level of 1.2734, GBP/USD concluded it at 1.2599. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were split: half (50%) voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and 25% maintained neutrality. The indicator readings on D1 are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Among oscillators, only 15% look north, 85% south, with a quarter of them signalling the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, 10% recommend buying, and 90% selling. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2635, 1.2730-1.2755, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.
No significant events related to the economy of the United Kingdom are scheduled for the upcoming week. Traders should also bear in mind that March 29 is a public holiday in the country due to Good Friday.
USD/JPY: How the BoJ Sank the Yen
In theory, if the interest rate rises, the currency strengthens. But that's just in theory. Reality can differ significantly, as demonstrated by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday, March 19.
Until that point, the BoJ had been the only central bank in the world to maintain a negative interest rate level of -0.1% since February 2016. Now, for the first time in 17 years, the regulator raised it to a range of 0.0-0.1% per annum. It also abandoned control over the yield of ten-year government bonds (YCC). As media reports, this move "represents a departure from the most aggressive and unconventional monetary easing policy we have seen in modern history." Yet, following this momentous decision, instead of appreciating, the yen ... plummeted, and USD/JPY reached a high of 151.85. Analysts believe this happened because each of these central bank actions met market expectations and had already been priced in.
Data on inflation in Japan for February, published towards the end of the workweek, offered some support to the Japanese currency. The country's Statistical Bureau reported that the annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8%, up from 2.2% previously. As a result, investors concluded that the persistence of price pressure above the target level of 2.0% would allow the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at a positive level.
However, maintaining rates does not mean increasing them. And as economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, wrote, the yen's position depends more on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts than on a rate hike by the BoJ. They stated: "It will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond volatility around the rate hike until rates in the US are lowered."
The yen received another, but very weak, support from growing speculations about possible intervention by the Japanese government in the currency sphere, in simpler terms, about currency interventions. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, did declare that currency movements should be stable and that he is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations. However, these were merely words, not concrete actions, thus they didn't significantly aid the national currency. As a result, the week concluded with the pair marking the final note at 151.43.
Regarding the near future of USD/JPY, the bearish camp for the pair comprises 50% of experts, 40% remain undecided, and 10% voted for further strengthening of the US currency. Technical analysis tools seem to be unaware of rumours about possible currency interventions. Consequently, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing upwards, with 20% of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels are found at 150.85, 149.70, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.
On Friday, March 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. Besides this, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.
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