XMR/Monero speculation thread..

Inca

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Aug 28, 2015
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In the coming years I believe a single blockchain will emerge upon which a large amount of internet commerce will take place. I see the internet superseding individual nation states as an economic bloc in the minds of the coming generations and that money will exist only on the internet in a world where everyone is connected all of the time. Money as an internet layer, with a single scalable, trustless, secure cryptocurrency payment ledger for the world to pass value back and forth between themselves.

With the failure of bitcoin to overcome centralised development concerns and the current developers changing the economic model of bitcoin there is now a distinct possibility that another blockchain may capture the crown.

Monero is a such a contender chain with hardcoded privacy features and fully anonymous transactions, a flexible blocksize system and six monthly hard fork cycles. Whilst several other chains are possibilities not to be ignored (ethereum, dash, etc) this thread will follow the fortunes of this particular cryptocurrency into the future.

At the time of writing the current market cap of XMR is roughly $11,000,000 with 11,600,000 coins emitted onto the bitmonero network. A single coin is worth $95cents. Compared to bitcoin, a single XMR is currently around 0.0022 btc.

A few development and usage hurdles are required before XMR can grow in price IMO. First the GUI needs to be completed and XMR must find usage on the DNM. Once these two things begin to occur then the price could surprise many with it's growth.

Another scenario which is likely IMO is that when (if?!) bitcoin eventually bubbles a few selected alt coins will likely bubble also. In that situation monero could suddenly rise in price one or more orders of magnitude and still have a small market cap.

Like btc I view xmr as a assymetric bet with an unlimited upside, the downside being losing the meagre investment I have put in.

In the short term the price could try and retest the recent high 0.0041 or retest the lower end of the channel at 0.0009. I will probably add if the price drops below 0.002 and observe if it rises above 0.003.
 
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bluemoon

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Jan 15, 2016
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I too have a small holding of monero, which I've been nursing for some months. Recently I've been wondering about adding more as a better hedge against a bitcoin failure and watching monero's price edge down.

Its market cap is much smaller than etherium or dash, but its trading volume is relatively high, giving it reasonable liquidity.

I know I should diversify, but still find it hard to trade away my bitcoin ...
 

Inca

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Yes, I think as long as you accept that where bitcoin is a high risk investment, something like XMR is ultra high risk then it could work. :)
 

Bagatell

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I like Monero and had some until the recent Bitcoin breakout. I will have some again when I start taking profits on this run up and suspect quite a few others will do the same.
 

Inca

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Price has stopped crashing. Recent high 0.0041, low 0.002, currently 0.00263.

Order books so thin it would be awful easy to push the price up or down with a few hundred btc. Hopefully a mini whale will try and coordinate a pump if bitcoin rallies out of the Mega Wedge of low volatility.
 

Inca

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Swapped back from xmr to btc at 0.0023. Price hovering here but it seems that when bitcoin jumps the price of xmr dips. If it holds 0.002 then i'll hop back in, hopefully without too much slippage.
 

Inca

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Litecoin seems to be positively correlated with btc. I have a small LTC stake, just in case China wakes up and the old pair go parabolic in the next week or two. In terms of usefulness I don't think litecoin is anything other than a pump and dumper. But the market cap is 150 million USD and everyone will expect it to surge if btc finally explodes. If the ETF is finally announced in the next month or two we know this whole thing is orchestrated.

XMR holding ground in relation to USD. Watching it closely with my trading stash on standby.
 

Inca

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Still holding 10% of previous bitcoin stake in litecoin. The two remain positively correlated. If bitcoin breaks out and jumps pre-halving then it should act like a leveraged position and could jump much higher.

I want to move that stake into ethereum at some stage.
 

freetrader

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Dec 16, 2015
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XMR hitting USD 1.50 today. Whatever one may think about Monero, that's evidence of money that's not going into BTC.

In fact, major alts up while Bitcoin struggles to get over the $700 barrier.
 

Inca

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Yep thats great. I am all btc and eth right now.

I don't know how this will move but having a few thousand XMR is probably a great shout for the next month or so.
 

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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No mystery why Monero is rising. It's the first altcoin to have a potentially pressing use case, potentially right now. A lot of silkroaders would buy BTC on LocalBitcoins, mix it, and make their purchases, then the vendors would mix it and sell it for fiat. Both parties have reason to fear future blockchain analysis developments and also would want to save on the fees, time, and risk involved with mixers (as well as the possibility that the mixers are honeypots).

A Bitcoin-Monero spinoff should be launched soon to head it off at the pass, because in the absence of such a spinoff I suspect XMR is going a lot higher. If trade loops start forming in XMR, there will be fireworks eclipsing every other altcoin movement thus far.
 
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Bagatell

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A bastard child of BTC and XMR would be a problem for both currencies by diluting both markets. I suspect XMR will have more problems building infrastructure than BTC has faced becuse of AML, KYC and LEA generally. Better for bitcoin to build on it's strengths than defend it's weakness.
 
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