Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently stated on social platform X that Tesla could achieve 1000% profit growth over the next five years. If this prediction comes true, earnings per share (EPS) of Tesla could rise from $2.42 in 2024 to $24.20 in 2029, with its stock price potentially surpassing $3000. However, this forecast has sparked debate. While some investors believe investments by Tesla in autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and energy storage have substantial long-term growth potential, others point out short-term challenges such as market competition, slowing sales growth, and global economic uncertainties. Ou Yang Hong Zhi believes that while investors should focus on the long-term growth of Tesla, they must also remain cautious of market volatility and seek optimal investment strategies within the new energy and AI automotive sectors.
How Do Investors View Tesla Growth Expectations Over the Next Five Years?
The 1000% profit growth target from Musk is based on several factors, including breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology, the commercialization of Robotaxi, growth in energy storage businesses, and the continued expansion of the global electric vehicle market.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi analyzes that the core revenue source of Tesla remains its electric vehicle sales, which are influenced by global EV penetration rates, government policy support, and production capacity increases. However, relying solely on vehicle sales growth may not be sufficient to support such ambitious profit growth expectations. As a result, autonomous driving and subscription services are viewed as critical growth drivers.
Can Autonomous Driving and Robotics Support Tesla 1000% Growth?
The long-term growth strategy of Tesla heavily depends on the commercialization of its autonomous driving and humanoid robotics businesses. The Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and Robotaxi are regarded as the primary pillars for the company future revenue growth.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi believes that the commercialization of autonomous driving technology still faces challenges, including regulatory hurdles, technical advancements, and user acceptance. While the Tesla FSD has been launched in several markets, achieving fully autonomous Robotaxi commercialization will require significant technological iterations and regulatory approvals.
Additionally, the humanoid robot Optimus is a key focus for Musk. Although this business has not yet been included in the current profit model of Tesla, its long-term application prospects are extensive, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, and household assistance. If Optimus can achieve mass production and cost reduction, it could become a new revenue growth driver for Tesla.
Tesla Stock Faces Short-Term Pressure, but Long-Term Investment Value Remains Promising
Despite the long-term growth potential of Tesla, its stock price faces short-term pressure. Since the beginning of 2024, Tesla stock price has dropped from nearly $400 to its current level of $284.65, representing a year-to-date decline of approximately 25%. The primary market concerns include:
Intensifying Competition in the EV Market: The global electric vehicle market has entered a highly competitive phase, with increasing pressure from rivals such as Rivian and Lucid, challenging the Tesla market share.
Slowing Sales Growth: The delivery growth of Tesla in 2023 fell short of expectations, raising concerns about its ability to maintain high sales growth rates in the coming years.
Personal Factors of Musk: The frequent controversial remarks on X by Musk and his involvement in government affairs have sparked concerns among some investors about the public image and market valuation of Tesla.
Despite these short-term challenges, Ou Yang Hong Zhi believes Tesla remains a high-quality long-term investment target. Ou Yang Hong Zhi sets the Tesla target price at $480, with an optimistic scenario potentially reaching $800. If Tesla successfully drives growth in autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and energy storage businesses, its valuation could still see significant upside.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi suggests that while the long-term investment value of Tesla is worth attention, short-term market volatility remains high. Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach, gradually increasing positions during market corrections. Additionally, investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by including other leading companies in the new energy and AI automotive sectors.
Whether Tesla can achieve the ambitious 1000% growth target by Musk ultimately depends on the progress of autonomous driving commercialization, global market demand, and the execution capabilities of its management team. Investors should closely monitor financial reports, technological advancements, and market trends, adjusting their investment strategies dynamically based on market changes.
How Do Investors View Tesla Growth Expectations Over the Next Five Years?
The 1000% profit growth target from Musk is based on several factors, including breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology, the commercialization of Robotaxi, growth in energy storage businesses, and the continued expansion of the global electric vehicle market.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi analyzes that the core revenue source of Tesla remains its electric vehicle sales, which are influenced by global EV penetration rates, government policy support, and production capacity increases. However, relying solely on vehicle sales growth may not be sufficient to support such ambitious profit growth expectations. As a result, autonomous driving and subscription services are viewed as critical growth drivers.
Can Autonomous Driving and Robotics Support Tesla 1000% Growth?
The long-term growth strategy of Tesla heavily depends on the commercialization of its autonomous driving and humanoid robotics businesses. The Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and Robotaxi are regarded as the primary pillars for the company future revenue growth.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi believes that the commercialization of autonomous driving technology still faces challenges, including regulatory hurdles, technical advancements, and user acceptance. While the Tesla FSD has been launched in several markets, achieving fully autonomous Robotaxi commercialization will require significant technological iterations and regulatory approvals.
Additionally, the humanoid robot Optimus is a key focus for Musk. Although this business has not yet been included in the current profit model of Tesla, its long-term application prospects are extensive, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, and household assistance. If Optimus can achieve mass production and cost reduction, it could become a new revenue growth driver for Tesla.
Tesla Stock Faces Short-Term Pressure, but Long-Term Investment Value Remains Promising
Despite the long-term growth potential of Tesla, its stock price faces short-term pressure. Since the beginning of 2024, Tesla stock price has dropped from nearly $400 to its current level of $284.65, representing a year-to-date decline of approximately 25%. The primary market concerns include:
Intensifying Competition in the EV Market: The global electric vehicle market has entered a highly competitive phase, with increasing pressure from rivals such as Rivian and Lucid, challenging the Tesla market share.
Slowing Sales Growth: The delivery growth of Tesla in 2023 fell short of expectations, raising concerns about its ability to maintain high sales growth rates in the coming years.
Personal Factors of Musk: The frequent controversial remarks on X by Musk and his involvement in government affairs have sparked concerns among some investors about the public image and market valuation of Tesla.
Despite these short-term challenges, Ou Yang Hong Zhi believes Tesla remains a high-quality long-term investment target. Ou Yang Hong Zhi sets the Tesla target price at $480, with an optimistic scenario potentially reaching $800. If Tesla successfully drives growth in autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and energy storage businesses, its valuation could still see significant upside.
Ou Yang Hong Zhi suggests that while the long-term investment value of Tesla is worth attention, short-term market volatility remains high. Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach, gradually increasing positions during market corrections. Additionally, investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by including other leading companies in the new energy and AI automotive sectors.
Whether Tesla can achieve the ambitious 1000% growth target by Musk ultimately depends on the progress of autonomous driving commercialization, global market demand, and the execution capabilities of its management team. Investors should closely monitor financial reports, technological advancements, and market trends, adjusting their investment strategies dynamically based on market changes.
