Ng Jian Hao: Tariff Policies Dragging Down Global Stock Markets

yolanyandoh

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Dec 12, 2024
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The global stock markets have recently experienced significant turbulence, with sharp declines in the U.S. stock market impacting domestic investors and rapidly spreading to the Asia-Pacific region, heightening concerns across global financial markets. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy believes that this wave of adjustments is not merely a result of disappointing corporate earnings and the announcement of the Trump tariff policies but rather the outcome of a complex interplay of multiple factors. He analyzes the underlying risks driving stock market volatility from the perspectives of global macroeconomics, corporate earnings performance, and market sentiment, offering strategies for investors to navigate the current environment.



The Macroeconomic Impact of Stock Market Volatility

Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy asserts that from the perspective of the global macroeconomic environment, stock market volatility can be attributed to the combined effects of numerous uncertainties. The tariff policies by U.S. President Trump have once again become a focal point for the markets. While these policies may cause short-term fluctuations in the stock prices of specific industries, the broader and more profound impact lies in exacerbating global economic uncertainty.

The earnings performance of U.S. corporations also reflects the operational challenges they face amid a sluggish global economy. Despite the unquestionable technological leadership by Nvidia, its stock price plummeted following downward revisions in market expectations and earnings that failed to exceed projections, triggering panic in the market. Ng Jian Hao points out that as corporate profit growth slows, overall market risk appetite declines, further increasing the volatility of global capital markets.

The ongoing decline in U.S. Treasury yields signals weakening investor confidence in future economic growth. According to Ng Jian Hao, this reflects expectations of a slowing U.S. economy and demonstrates a global capital shift toward safe-haven assets, further driving up the U.S. dollar and suppressing the performance of other risk assets.

Adjusting Risk Strategies Rationally

Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy advises that investors focus on changes in market sentiment and selectively explore opportunities in specific industries. In the short term, stock market volatility often exhibits irrational and emotional characteristics. Excessive panic or optimism tends to amplify short-term market swings, while rational decision-making can help achieve stable returns over longer cycles. Investors should closely monitor changes in macroeconomic data, particularly U.S. indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation, to guide asset allocation adjustments.

Despite the overall market sentiment being subdued, certain industries still exhibit robust growth potential. Green energy, healthcare, and the semiconductor industry remain key areas for long-term growth. Ng Jian Hao emphasizes that investors can mitigate risks through sector rotation strategies, avoiding overexposure to a single sector. As technological advancements continue, leading companies within these industries retain strong market competitiveness, providing investors with a margin of safety.

Technical analysis methods can also help investors better identify market opportunities. By using indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), investors can identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market, aiding in decisions on when to enter or exit positions. Ng Jian Hao notes that while technical analysis tools cannot predict the market future, they can provide valuable reference points for decision-making in the current volatile environment.

Risk Warnings and Long-Term Strategic Planning

Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy highlights that while the market currently faces certain downward pressures, there are still many promising areas for investors to focus on in the long run. The recent plunge in U.S. stocks, disappointing Nvidia earnings, and the slowdown in the global economy indicate that the market is far from ideal, requiring investors to exercise caution in their decision-making.

Ng Jian Hao advises that in the context of a weak global economy, investors should avoid over-reliance on a single asset or sector, appropriately diversify their portfolios, and ensure stability and resilience against risks. For risk-averse investors, increasing allocations to fixed-income assets such as government bonds and corporate bonds can help hedge against stock market volatility.

Despite short-term uncertainties, Ng Jian Hao remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the global economy. He suggests that investors focus on emerging markets and technological innovation sectors such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and green energy. As technological advancements and market demand in these areas continue to grow, the potential for investment returns will increase significantly.

Ng Jian Hao emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and rational mindset during periods of market volatility. By employing scientific and reasonable asset allocation, technical analysis, and risk management strategies, investors can achieve steady wealth growth even in complex market environments.
 

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