Recently, US President Trump announced plans to unilaterally set tariff rates within two weeks, leading to pressure on US equity futures, a weakening US dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy has unsettled market sentiment and structurally intensified the trend of global capital redistribution. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy will analyze the deeper logic of the current international market from the perspectives of market reaction, investment strategy, and future positioning.
Short-term Pressure on US Equities
The decline in US equity futures reflects the rapid market pricing of a new round of trade tensions. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy believes that current market volatility mainly stems from Trump announcing unilateral tariff measures, with this non-negotiated policy stance disrupting prior expectations of stabilizing trade policy. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 0.5%, with the technology sector facing greater risk exposure. This trend stands in stark contrast to the rise in safe-haven assets: gold rose by 0.7%, US Treasury yields fell, and capital flowed significantly into low-risk assets.
Ng Jian Hao points out that the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the Japanese yen also indicate that the foreign exchange market is quickly responding to signals of heightened risk. Investors are withdrawing funds from high-volatility assets and allocating to traditional safe havens, reflecting both short-term sentiment shifts and a strategic defensive positioning of capital.
Against a backdrop of relative calm in Asian markets, the rebound in sentiment in US and European markets may bring delayed effects. If US policies are implemented, related regional markets could experience secondary shocks, prompting a repricing of global emerging market assets. Ng Jian Hao believes investors should closely monitor subsequent statements from the Federal Reserve, as well as the indirect effects of geopolitical risks on the energy market.
Reconstructing Logic and Adjusting Strategy
Current market dynamics are no longer limited to volatility triggered by short-term news. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy suggests that investors should re-evaluate asset allocation logic from both technical and fundamental perspectives. The previous rally in US equities, led by technology stocks, was highly dependent on expectations for low inflation and low interest rates. The current escalation of trade risks may force institutions to reassess corporate earnings forecasts.
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 is currently at the lower edge of its consolidation range, while the Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the broader market for several consecutive days, indicating capital is retreating from higher-risk growth assets. Ng Jian Hao advises that short-term traders should prioritize a combination of trend-following and swing strategies, using moving averages to identify inflection points and monitoring the VIX volatility index for shifts in market sentiment.
The rise in gold and US Treasuries indicates a strengthening risk aversion and suggests that capital is seeking volatility hedging tools. Ng Jian Hao believes that allocating to gold ETFs, US Treasury futures, and volatility-related derivatives can help construct a more resilient portfolio structure to withstand risks arising from policy uncertainty.
Outlook and Risk Response
Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy states that current market uncertainty is an inevitable, transitional reflection of the structural adjustment of the global economy. Changes in trade policy are only superficial factors; deeper variables lie in the evolution of positions of countries on geopolitics and fiscal policy, which will directly affect the direction of cross-border capital flows and the volatility structure of capital markets.
As global capital continues to seek stable sources of return, the market will become increasingly sensitive to policy certainty and data transparency. Ng Jian Hao believes this trend will accelerate the repricing of high-quality assets and prompt institutional investors to seek structural opportunities within a risk-control framework. Anticipating risks and making proactive adjustments will be the most feasible investment response in the current phase.
Short-term Pressure on US Equities
The decline in US equity futures reflects the rapid market pricing of a new round of trade tensions. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy believes that current market volatility mainly stems from Trump announcing unilateral tariff measures, with this non-negotiated policy stance disrupting prior expectations of stabilizing trade policy. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 0.5%, with the technology sector facing greater risk exposure. This trend stands in stark contrast to the rise in safe-haven assets: gold rose by 0.7%, US Treasury yields fell, and capital flowed significantly into low-risk assets.
Ng Jian Hao points out that the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the Japanese yen also indicate that the foreign exchange market is quickly responding to signals of heightened risk. Investors are withdrawing funds from high-volatility assets and allocating to traditional safe havens, reflecting both short-term sentiment shifts and a strategic defensive positioning of capital.
Against a backdrop of relative calm in Asian markets, the rebound in sentiment in US and European markets may bring delayed effects. If US policies are implemented, related regional markets could experience secondary shocks, prompting a repricing of global emerging market assets. Ng Jian Hao believes investors should closely monitor subsequent statements from the Federal Reserve, as well as the indirect effects of geopolitical risks on the energy market.
Reconstructing Logic and Adjusting Strategy
Current market dynamics are no longer limited to volatility triggered by short-term news. Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy suggests that investors should re-evaluate asset allocation logic from both technical and fundamental perspectives. The previous rally in US equities, led by technology stocks, was highly dependent on expectations for low inflation and low interest rates. The current escalation of trade risks may force institutions to reassess corporate earnings forecasts.
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 is currently at the lower edge of its consolidation range, while the Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the broader market for several consecutive days, indicating capital is retreating from higher-risk growth assets. Ng Jian Hao advises that short-term traders should prioritize a combination of trend-following and swing strategies, using moving averages to identify inflection points and monitoring the VIX volatility index for shifts in market sentiment.
The rise in gold and US Treasuries indicates a strengthening risk aversion and suggests that capital is seeking volatility hedging tools. Ng Jian Hao believes that allocating to gold ETFs, US Treasury futures, and volatility-related derivatives can help construct a more resilient portfolio structure to withstand risks arising from policy uncertainty.
Outlook and Risk Response
Ng Jian Hao from Mahala Capital Management Academy states that current market uncertainty is an inevitable, transitional reflection of the structural adjustment of the global economy. Changes in trade policy are only superficial factors; deeper variables lie in the evolution of positions of countries on geopolitics and fiscal policy, which will directly affect the direction of cross-border capital flows and the volatility structure of capital markets.
As global capital continues to seek stable sources of return, the market will become increasingly sensitive to policy certainty and data transparency. Ng Jian Hao believes this trend will accelerate the repricing of high-quality assets and prompt institutional investors to seek structural opportunities within a risk-control framework. Anticipating risks and making proactive adjustments will be the most feasible investment response in the current phase.
