Daily analytical reviews of the crypto market by StormGain

[StormGain_crypto]

Bitcoin to fall as ETFs fail to create new demand​

Economy Peter Schiff predicts that Bitcoin's price will fall further. He believes that the approval of ETFs isn't creating new demand for the crypto. In his opinion, investors who used to buy crypto on the spot market, shares of mining companies or Coinbase will now shift their investments to ETFs.

"Rearranging the deck chairs won't stop the ship from sinking".

Schiff believes that the fate of investors in the spot product will be similar to those who invested in the BITO futures ETF that launched in the autumn of 2021. Now, the fund's shares are trading at a 50% discount, which means Bitcoin is expected to fall to around $25,000.

His words are supported by statistics on capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Last week, the inflow shifted to a net outflow of $25 million. In comparison, investments in short ETFs (for which profit is made when the asset's price falls) increased by $13 million.

Without getting too into the weeds, it looks like investors became very disappointed by the crypto. The 20% drawdown also plays a role here for those who invested in the first days of the funds' operation. However, Bitcoin's fall can't be separated from the reasons for it.

Since the ETF was approved in the US, Grayscale investors, miners, FTX's bankruptcy trustee and short-term holders have triggered a sell-off. Collectively, they've dumped $20 billion worth of coins.

For example, traders made about $3 billion on Grayscale's discount (the securities were trading at a decent discount to the underlying asset in 2023). They aren't interested in Bitcoin as an asset. They just used the opportunity to make money. On the other hand, miners are concerned about the growing complexity and halving in April. Since 10 January, they've sent a six-year record of 355,000 BTC worth $15 billion to crypto exchanges.

In these conditions, $4 billion in demand for spot ETFs looks very modest and can't compensate for the resulting outflow of funds from the crypto sector. That's why the ETF launch caused the asset's price to drop.

At the same time, one should consider that the resulting pressure is primarily due to temporary factors, while long-term trends are still on Bitcoin's side.

For example, the share of coins that have been idle for over a year has been growing since the autumn of 2021. The figure is at a record-high 70%. More and more people find Bitcoin to be a suitable savings tool. The emergence of ETFs isn't the most important event in this story. That's why it's not so important whether the ETFs provoke additional inflows or simply accumulate investments from related areas.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Solana is about to overtake Ethereum in stablecoin volume​

Transactions with stablecoins are key activity areas for networks supporting smart contracts. In December, stablecoin volume totalled $1.2 trillion, and the number of active addresses is growing year over year despite market turbulence.

For the past two years, the Tron network has been competing with Ethereum, allowing USDT and other stablecoins to be transferred at lower fees. But at the end of 2023, Solana displaced Tron from the second position, challenging Ethereum. In the last week, Ethereum accounted for 39% of turnover, Solana contributed another 29%, and Tron made up 25%.

Solana outperforms its competitors in key parameters. For instance, a transaction is completed within half a second, and commission is under one cent.

Last year, Visa chose Solana as its partner for an interbank exchange pilot project since transfers on the blockchain proved more efficient than traditional methods. The payment giant's opinion can be found on its official website.

This news, coupled with VanEck's investment report that the network was undervalued, led to an explosive rise in the coin's value last year.

Solana's only major problem has always been frequent failures, often leading to a complete shutdown. But since February, the network has been operating stably and even successfully overcame a surge of transactions in connection with the mass minting of ordinals at the end of 2023. Not all networks coped well with this challenge.

The developers hope that the issue with network failures will finally be resolved by deploying the new Firedancer validator. Its rollout is scheduled for the first half of 2024.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Last week's net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $0.5 billion​

Last week, the outflow of investors from Grayscale reached $2.2 billion, which other Bitcoin crypto funds couldn't compensate for. The net weekly amount was a $478.9 million outflow.

Investors are fleeing GBTC for two reasons: some are locking in profits from the gains on the fund's stock in 2023 when it traded at an over 40% discount to the underlying asset. Others are angry about the relatively high fund management fees. Grayscale has a 1.5% fee, while other funds have gone as low as 0.2-0.3%.

Invesco, which initially charged a fee of 0.39%, lowered it to 0.25% yesterday. Competition is so fierce that a tenth of a per cent is enough to risk serious underinvestment despite Grayscale's reputation and its hefty $1.5 trillion in assets under management. The updated table of fees is as follows:

BlackRock continues to lead the list of newly created ETFs (Grayscale's fund was converted from a trust fund) with $2.2 billion. Fidelity is about to surpass the $2 billion threshold. WisdomTree comes in last with $6.3 million.

There have been $760 million in net inflows since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.

Grayscale is bleeding $5 billion primarily because of the discount that emerged in 2023. Investors who are unhappy with high fees will simply migrate to competitors. The pressure on Bitcoin will ease.

The overall inflow of investments into ETFs, on the other hand, will strengthen as soon as the market digests the current correction. The correction was brought on both by Grayscale and the desire to lock profit by short-term holders and miners. Miners have sent over 360,000 BTC (about $15 billion) to crypto exchanges since the ETFs launched.

The emergence of spot ETFs is positively affecting direct investments in the cryptocurrency and increasing its reputation. Even the sharp cryptocurrency opponent, the SEC, recognises Bitcoin as a good and an investment asset.

Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, the largest investment company in the world in terms of assets under management, was sceptical about the cryptocurrency back in 2021. Since then, he's changed his mind, calling himself a Bitcoin "supporter" two years later.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Why the response to halving will be similar to the reaction to ETFs​

In 2023, miners doubled their production capacity. The total hashrate of the Bitcoin network increased 2.1 times to 515 EH/s.

Among publicly traded miners, Marathon Digital took the first place by growth rate, increasing its capacity by 3.5 times to 24.7 EH/s. Iris Energy, which saw 3.3-fold growth, and HUT 8 (2.9-fold growth) also showed excellent results. Marathon Digital ranked first in relative and absolute terms, overtaking 2022 leader Core Scientific.

The former is also distinguished by its retention strategy: its reserves amount to an industry record of 15,200 BTC (~$654 million). Having learned the lesson of 2022, most miners are accumulating with caution. Core has undergone reorganisation after filing bankruptcy under Chapter 11 and is now dumping coins on the market without delay.

The ongoing arms race has resulted in little to no growth in yields per terahash of capacity over the past 12 months despite Bitcoin's solid surge.

Meanwhile, the halving event is less than three months away. If the coin's value doesn't show significant growth, most miners will face a severe lack of liquidity, which will force them to sell off their reserves more actively.

This month, they have already seized on an excuse in the form of spot ETF approvals in the US to send a six-year record 624,000 BTC (~$26 billion) to crypto exchanges from 10 January.

At the moment, miners collectively hold an impressive reserve of 1.8 million BTC, worth $77 billion. If Bitcoin doesn't show growth before the halving, the decline in yields will cause another wave of sell-offs.


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[StormGain_crypto]

How the Polygon team scammed investors out of $1 billion​

Recently, the analyst firm ChainArgos released an unflattering article for Polygon management. It recorded the disappearance of around 400 million MATIC that should have gone to validators as staking fees. Another 367 million MATIC was withdrawn from the marketing fund.

In 2019, the young startup Polygon, formerly called MATIC, used Binance Launchpad to launch a token and attract investors. According to the white paper, 1.2 billion MATIC was intended for investors participating in a staking programme. Binance, for its part, confirms that this was the case: 12% of the 10 billion tokens were sent to validators.

The ChainArgos agency tracked the movement of coins and discovered that, as a result of shuffling, only 800 million MATIC reached investors. Polygon also didn't bother to hide the evidence. 300 million MATIC for staking was poured into the address, where 466 million MATIC from the "marketing and ecosystem" section were later added. This definitively linked the addresses to Polygon, leaving no doubt about the maliciousness of the actions.

Later, the coins migrated to a Binance address for subsequent sale. The analysts concluded from this that the cryptocurrency exchange was involved in the foul play. The movement of funds simply couldn't go unnoticed. They estimate that project managers withdrew a total of 767 million MATICs, which was worth about $1 billion at former prices. A detailed analysis can be found at the link at the beginning of this article.

In addition to direct investors losing funds, token buyers on cryptocurrency exchanges also suffered, as the coin withdrawals and disguised sales were followed by a major drop in MATIC's price starting in January 2022.

ChainArgos notes that the white paper isn't legally binding in the same way as a shareholder agreement. That's why Polygon faces no criminal liability for its dishonest policy regarding notice of planned actions. Privately, investors can take legal action if the company's actions resulted in direct losses.


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[StormGain_crypto]

History repeats itself: The US banking sector is once again under attack​

In March 2023, the US banking sector faced a series of bankruptcies, primarily caused by the Federal Reserve's increase of the key interest rate. Rate hikes led to a reduction in income and the depreciation of banks' investment portfolios. This primarily affected Treasury bonds. During the "easy money" period of 2020-2021, a number of banks stocked up on treasuries. The rate hikes resulted in their value dropping.

The US Fed's key rate changes

The government and the Fed had to intervene to resolve the situation. Banks were given the opportunity to sell bonds at old prices. In addition, the Fed launched a one-year emergency lending line. Within the scope of the latter, banks have took $165 billion in loans. On 11 March, the lending line will be closed.

This has spared the economy from the open flame, but the coals are still hot. Throughout 2023, a number of economists and businessmen urged the regulator to cut the ineterest rate to prevent a crisis that would start with regional banks. But the Fed still believes the situation is under control and that all measures should be aimed at achieving the target inflation goal of 2.0% to 2.5%.

The new red flag appeared yesterday when NYSB, the bank that bought the assets of the bankrupt Signature Bank, reported an unexpected loss of $252 million in Q4 2023. Investors and customers rushed for the exits, withdrawing their funds in the process. It's worth noting that deposit outflows are one of the most serious stress tests for the banking industry.

Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to investors that market sentiment has turned significantly negative for the first time since late October, and the weakness of regional banks should be offset by a "dose of hedging" in the investment portfolio.

Last March, Bitcoin became one of these "hedging assets" and experienced a significant influx of investments. Unlike bank deposits, cryptocurrency has no insured amount beyond which funds can be irretrievably lost. For example, SVB, which went bankrupt a year ago, had 85% of its $175 billion in deposits that weren't insured by the FDIC. And if it weren't for the direct intervention of the Fed and the Treasury Department, the list of bankrupt companies (which would've been dragged down by collapsed banks) would've been impressive.

Since the underlying problem hasn't been resolved, the banking sector's profitability remains at an uncomfortable level. With the end of the emergency programme and a high key rate, new shocks await banks.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Overview of crypto ETFs through January 2024​

In January, the launch of spot ETFs shook markets, and Bitcoin became the second-place commodity (the SEC assigns it this status) after gold in terms of the volume of collected investments. The crypto ETFs' current total capitalisation is $50.7 million, growing by 1.5% in January.

This modest gain is due to a large outflow from the Grayscale fund (GBTC), which was converted to a spot ETF from a trust fund. Ahead of the conversion, investors bought more than $3 billion worth of shares in 2023 alone, trading at a significant discount to the underlying asset. After the conversion, over $5 billion flowed out of the fund.

The second reason is Grayscale's 1.5% fund management fee. Other spot Bitcoin ETFs have a management fee of between 0.2% and 0.3%. The peak withdrawal from GBTC, $641 million, occurred on 22 January. After that, the negative trend began to decline. At the end of the month, it stayed below $250 million.

The large outflow from GBTC has blurred the picture of what institutional interest in Bitcoin looks like. In addition to net inflows, trading volume and open interest can be used to show this interest. The average daily trading volume jumped 224% in January to $2.2 billion.

Open interest in derivatives contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remains near record-high levels.

January was exciting, but hopes for Bitcoin's growth didn't pan out due to the capital outflow from GBTC and miners' desire to get rid of part of their reserves.

However, long-term trends point to significant interest in the cryptocurrency. BlackRock's fund saw nearly $3 billion in capital inflows in January, putting it at eighth according to this metric among all exchange-traded ETFs traded in the United States.

The most conservative estimates suggest that Bitcoin ETFs will attract $10 billion in investments in 2024, seeing the biggest effect from their launch in Q4.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Investors exchange gold for Bitcoin​

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US increased the cryptocurrency's reputation and made it much easier for many people to invest in Bitcoin and put it on the same level as gold. In the SEC's accompanying letter to the approval of the ETFs, Chairman Gary Gensler reiterated that the regulator views Bitcoin exclusively as a commodity.

The importance of the event for the crypto market can hardly be overestimated, as it'll cause a significant inflow of capital. In the statistics for January, it's weakly reflected due to the negative impact of Grayscale, which isn't related to the investment attractiveness of Bitcoin (read more on the reasons here). The good news is that this trend is weakening. From a peak of 24,000 BTC (~$1 billion) a day, the outflow has dropped to 3,400 BTC (~$145 million).

As interest in the remaining nine spot ETFs didn't change much, last week marked a return to growth in net inflows, reaching $708 million.

Moreover, funds from BlackRock and Fidelity were among the top 10 fastest-growing ETFs in the US in January. In contrast, the gold ETF from SSGA, which has the largest private gold holdings, showed a significant outflow of $1.8 billion.

The trend of Bitcoin replacing gold as an investor preference has been noted by many analyst companies since 2021, including Bank of America and JPMorgan. This trend started to fully manifest after the launch of spot ETFs.

For the long-term valuation of gold and cryptocurrency, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest suggests relying on the ratio of Bitcoin's value expressed in ounces of gold. The logarithmic chart speaks for itself.

A new boost in crypto growth may provoke a repeat of last March's banking crisis when a full-scale crash could only be prevented by the direct intervention of the government and the Fed (read more in our article). Bitcoin then gained 50%, rising to $30,000 within a month.

In addition to the banking crisis, the US faces a national debt problem that is costing a lot to service. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who usually ignores politics, recently criticised the government:

"The US federal government's on an unsustainable fiscal path... The debt is growing faster than the economy".

For centuries, gold was a safe haven, but Bitcoin will eventually replace it as a more convenient and safer (in certain aspects) instrument.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Binance is removing Monero. Is Litecoin next?​

The de-listing of the anonymous Monero coin was a logical consequence of a pre-trial agreement between Binance and the US Department of Justice in November, under which government agencies were given unrestricted access to all documentation and the cryptocurrency exchange pledged to comply with international and US laws strictly.

Due to their complex architecture and transaction mixing, anonymous coins make it difficult for law enforcement agencies to track financial transactions. In particular, Monero uses ring signatures, where a transaction can be signed on behalf of a group by any of its members. This makes it virtually impossible to trace funds.

And while the cryptocurrency exchange previously highlighted privacy and the right to financial freedom as Montero's advantages, the official reason for the de-listing scheduled for 20 February was "failure to meet high standards".

After the news went live, Monero collapsed 26% to $122 and, in the overall ranking, fell to 39th place, with a capitalisation of $2.2 billion.

The backlash from market participants against supporting anonymous coins dates back to 2019 when the International Anti-Money Laundering Organisation FATF adopted a resolution on the need for cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with KYC and AML procedures. Since then, the trend has only gained momentum.

Binance, on the other hand, is now fully bound by the agreement, which hints at tightening conditions further. Litecoin might be next.

In May 2022, the MimbleWimble (MVEB) protocol was introduced to the network. It greatly enhanced privacy by combining a number of transactions into a single record that then become a set of random characters. MVEB isn't as anonymous as Monero or Zcash, but even this privacy level was enough to de-list Litecoin from major South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges in 2022.

Binance is having a tough time. Its market share is down 19% in 2023, and the former head of one of the SEC's divisions, John Reed Stark, believes that a deal with the US government could bury the crypto exchange.

If regulators hint to Binance about Litecoin's excessive privacy, the coin will similarly disappear from the platform.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Ripple suspected of involvement in $112 million hack​

In late January, crypto detective ZachXBT reported on a potential hack of Ripple and the theft of 213 million XRP from the rJNL* address. The company's co-founder, Chris Larsen, revealed that personal wallets were hacked on 30 January. In his words, the attacks had nothing to do with the company or its functioning.

That would seem like the end of the story, as it's only due to Larsen's own carelessness. However, an investigation by Hacken, a company that audits the security of crypto projects, raises new questions.

In addition to the above-mentioned rJNL*, the ru1B* address has obvious signs of hacking, and it was also emptied in several goes on 30 January. Some funds were transferred from these addresses to rs1*. We'll clarify what's what: rJNL* and ru1B* are Larsen's wallets, and rs1* is the fraudster's wallet.

Next, the funds from rs1* go to crypto exchanges, with the most notable being Kraken with the address rLHz*. The fraudster probably uses it to cash out, according to analysts. But how can one explain that the same rLHz* address was previously (long before the hack) used by Larsen himself when he would directly send funds from ru1B*?

There could be several reasons for such a strange coincidence. For example, a company employee could've been behind the hack and used old financial channels for withdrawal. To avoid casting a shadow on the company's credibility, Larsen put the whole thing down to his own failures.

The incident could've been used to divert attention away from a major XRP cash-out by Ripple's management (Larsen is the executive chairman). Alternatively, the hype may have been used to build up reserves at a discounted price, though that's unlikely. Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers.

This week, a court granted the SEC's request for Ripple's financial statements for the past two years. The case is related to the regulator's intention to recognise XRP as a security. If it's revealed that tokens were sold to institutional investors, the company will be charged with violating securities law and will receive large fines and a possible ban on continuing operations. The coin could collapse.

Six months ago, we covered this issue, urging caution among potential investors. Since then, XRP's price has dropped 32%.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Solana will miss the next growth wave​

The positive momentum from the launch of spot ETFs is gaining speed, and capital inflows are picking up pace. On 8 February, net inflow amounted to $405 million, the third-highest in the past month. Grayscale's negative impact was notably less, going from $640 million on 22 January to the current $102 million.

The total volume of the nine newly created funds (Grayscale was converted to an ETF from a trust fund) has reached $10 billion in just one month. Sceptics had forecast that this would take at least a year. The impressive demand has compensated nearly two-fold the outflow from Grayscale, which is not related to interest in Bitcoin (we previously explained the reasons in our article).

This led to the rise of Bitcoin's price, which aims to break through the $50,000 level and strengthen its share in the cryptocurrency market.

The emergence of ETFs became irreversible in October 2023, when the deadline for the SEC to appeal the conversion of Grayscale's fund expired. Solana was one of several altcoins that were able to take advantage of the change in sentiment in the crypto market. The rise in the coin's price was also fuelled by its own factors, such as the joint creation with Visa of a pilot project to conduct interbank payments and the inclusion of blockchain transactions in the Shopify payment gateway.

Interest in Solana is driven by its high transaction completion speeds and low fees, which is why investment firm VanEck has estimated that the coin's price could reach $3,211 by 2030 in a favourable scenario.

Another thing fuelling the excitement around Solana was the absence of critical errors since February 2023, which came as a pleasant surprise to many observers (including us) since the network previously experienced outages an average of once per quarter. Unfortunately, however, it wasn't to go a full year without a shutdown. On 6 February, a critical error occurred that led to a 5-hour shutdown and network rollback.

When defending the product, supporters and management always refer to the fact that it's in beta, although Solana's history dates back to March 2020. Daniel Kuhn of Consensus magazine believes this is hypocritical since the sale of related products (for example, Saga smartphones) doesn't mention the network's beta status anywhere.

Failures cause a serious blow to its reputation, which is why pilot projects, like the network, can remain in beta forever. It is likely that Solana won't be able to grow with the same agility in the near future and will finally give way to Bitcoin in terms of growth rates in Q1.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Long-term Bitcoin holders are locking in profits​

Currently, 87% of the total BTC issued is in the black for its owners. It's traded above $50,000 for less than 3% or 141 days of its history. This raises the temptation of locking in profits. As a result, long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their holdings by 300,000 BTC to 14.7 million BTC.

At first glance, it may appear that a sell-off by the most resilient market participants has begun, but that's not the case. Half of the volume has come from the Grayscale fund, which was converted to a spot ETF from a trust fund. The fund's shares were actively bought up last year because of the significant discount of over 40% on the underlying asset. By the time the fund was converted, the discount had levelled off. GBTC is responsible for the sale of 150,000 BTC, totalling $6.3 billion.

Of the remaining 150,000 BTC under consideration, miners made up the lion's share of the sell-off as they prepare for the halving event in April. The block's mining income will be halved, which, at current prices (and especially in the event of a correction), will put many in a difficult position. They decided to act on the news of the launch of ETFs by massively reducing reserves from 11 January.

On the other hand, all of that outflow was offset by nine newly created ETFs, with BlackRock at the head. Collectively, they accumulated $10 billion of Bitcoin, which allowed the price to test $50,000 again.

Last week, for example, inflows into these funds totalled $1.5 billion, while outflows from GBTC were $400 million.

It turns out that the main outflow from LTHs came from Grayscale and miners for objective reasons. In terms of how most market participants assess Bitcoin's prospects, they remain purely positive. For example, Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci wrote on social media that investors who missed the start of the rally didn't miss the train since Bitcoin's price will quadruple 18 months after its halving event.

The world's largest publicly traded holder, MicroStrategy, is also keeping a positive outlook and building up its Bitcoin reserves every quarter. It currently holds 190,000 BTC or nearly $10 billion.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Positive trends in the Ethereum network​

In 2023, Ethereum's position was undermined by SEC enforcement practices, leading to most US cryptocurrency exchanges refusing to offer staking. The regulator's desire to grant the coin the status of a security and oppose the emergence of spot ETFs with it by all means also hurt its investment appeal.

This resulted in Ethereum losing 26% to Bitcoin over the past year.

Negative dynamics against several crypto assets couldn't compensate for the yield from staking at ~4%, leading to a decrease in the number of those willing to participate. However, the network has experienced an influx of validators in the past two weeks, causing the queue to grow to 2.5 days.

The reason for the renewed interest was the Starknet project, which has planned a free coin distribution starting from 20 February. Some of them will go to Ethereum validators. Starknet is a layer 2 (L2) network, helping to reduce fees and increase the speed of Ethereum transactions.

Another positive trend was the February launch of the experimental protocol ERC-404 tokens, which combines the functions of ERC-20 and ERC-721. The first ones were 10,000 Pandora tokens, each of which was backed by NFTs. This is part of the game since it's unknown which NFTs the user will receive when purchasing Pandora. NFTs can be unbundled from the tokens when sold independently.

Pandora Capitalization

Despite the experimental nature of ERC-404 and the lack of official adoption by the Ethereum Foundation, the excitement around the new protocol has already resulted in a noticeable increase in fees.

New projects, experiments, and the expected lower fees on L2 networks after the Dencun update could boost Ethereum, reversing the negative impact of last year's events.


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[StormGain_crypto]

Worldcoin's price increases 2.5 times in a week​

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI responsible for the emergence of ChatGTP, is actively applying AI developments to the crypto industry. His global currency project, Worldcoin, continues to gain momentum, and the WLD coin that launched in mid-2023 is reaching new heights.

The startup's primary goal is to sort the wheat from the chaff, i.e., to be able to reliably identify a user in an era in which spam bots and scammers dominate. This problem also concerns artificial intelligence, which, with each new year, gets better at copying human behaviours, writing thesis papers, drawing and even generating copies of documents.

Worldcoin proposes to link a unique ID to a specific user once and for all by scanning his or her retina. Verification via World ID on web resources would mean that a real person is behind specific actions. After undergoing a subsequent Know Your Customer identity verification procedure, a platform would definitively link an account to a specific individual.

To reduce the risk of leaking retina scans, the company uses zero-knowledge proof, which, roughly speaking, means keeping a hash function of the scan. The scan itself is destroyed, while the access codes are stored on the user's phone in the World App. If a user needs to be linked to World ID again, he or she undergoes another retina scan.

Worldcoin has implemented a payment of 25 WLD (about $165 at current prices) to motivate users to join the community. In certain countries, this gift has caused real excitement and queues at offices to undergo the scan.

As a result of heightened interest in the project, the number of daily active users has skyrocketed from 100,000 in November to 1 million last week.

However, the governments of a host of countries have already raised the alarm and prohibited Worldcoin due to the collection of biometric data and the risk of leaking confidential data. The news that other peoples' accounts are being bought in China (where it's forbidden to collect biometric data) added fuel to the fire. The black market is rife with offers from Kenya and Cambodia, and the company has confirmed the sale of several hundred World IDs.

Such incidents seriously undermine the project's reputation, and the prohibition on collecting biometric data could become widespread. Investors and traders should exercise extreme caution when assessing Worldcoin's prospects.


StormGain Analytical Group
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[Elizium]

Starknet has distributed a lot today. Are there any lucky ones who claimed the airdrop?

 

[StormGain_crypto]

Bitcoin's new records in investment inflows​

Investment interest in Bitcoin is reaching new heights. The net inflow of investments into ETFs last week was a record-high $2.45 billion and $5.2 billion in total since the beginning of the year.

Freshly launched spot ETFs performed well, with BlackRock leading the way with $6.2 billion under management, followed by a product from Fidelity with $4.5 billion. Combined, the two funds beat Grayscale's $7 billion outflow (GBTC).

It's worth remembering that the outflow from GBTC is not related to the investment appeal of the cryptocurrency but is caused by a significant discount on the shares against the underlying asset in 2023 and increased fund management fees if compared to competitors. The reduction in GBTC's 'blood-letting' is a positive factor.

The growth of open interest (the total volume of all open positions) in futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to $6.8 billion was another record for Bitcoin. Like the growth of inflows into ETFs, this indicates increased interest in the cryptocurrency among institutional investors.

According to CryptoQuant, over 70% of all Bitcoin investments in recent weeks have been generated by US ETFs. As a result, the share of US capital by market depth has increased from an average of 40% in 2023 to 50%. And the indicator increased from $454 million to $539 million in 2024.

For reference, market depth is the total volume of open orders from the current price in both directions (in this case, by 2%). The greater the indicator is, the more resistant the asset is to market manipulations and the more restrained volatility is.

This surge of interest has led to Bitcoin's 22% growth in 2024. In addition, most forecasts predict a new all-time high and reaching the six-figure level as early as this year.

On 19 February, former US intelligence official Edward Snowden called Bitcoin the most significant achievement in the history of money.


StormGain Analytical Group
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[StormGain_crypto]

Ethereum challenges Bitcoin for top growth rate in 2024​

In its recovery from last year, Ethereum has shown excellent dynamics in the previous two months. Its price has increased by 31% and overcome the important $3,000 level. The altcoin's boom is due to both the revival of the DeFi sector and hopes for spot ETFs emerging as early as May.

Over the past five months, spot ETFs have been the undoubted driver of the cryptocurrency market's growth, which has led to Bitcoin's market share strengthening to 52%.

Several signs point to the imminent return of the altcoin season, with the initial momentum spreading from Bitcoin to other coins. After a brief pause, altcoin capitalisation returned to growth, which reset Glassnode's indicator on 4 February.

Among altcoins, the most notable is Ethereum, which leads the DeFi sector in capitalisation, number of active validators and staked funds (TVL). This year, TVL grew by 54% to $46.4 billion.

The DeFi revival is due to the growing popularity of new projects. For example, the EigenLayer platform has managed to raise $6.8 billion since the beginning of the year, thanks to the emergence of a new type of liquid restaking tokens or LRT. These tokens are designed to displace the leadership of stETH, which Lido issues in exchange for ETH locked in staking.

Simply put, both stETH and LRT increase the profitability of ETH staking by re-lending funds. First, ETH is locked, and platform tokens are issued, which users can deposit or sell on another platform. All of this significantly increases the associated risks but also allows you to make the most out of the available ETH.

Without such tricks, the annual yield from ETH staking is less than 4%. Yield floats since it's affected by the number of validators and transaction processing fees.

The Ethereum network's deflationary nature is another reason for its growth. Since the switch to PoS, the number of coins in circulation has decreased by 362,000 ETH (~$1.1 billion) because part of the reward paid by the sender for processing transactions is burned.

However, speculation surrounding the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs in May should be treated with caution. The SEC has always spoken of Bitcoin as a commodity, which has helped promote exchange-traded funds. The regulator labelled Ethereum as a security immediately after it switched to PoS and even forced a number of cryptocurrency exchanges to stop staking it.


StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

 

[StormGain_crypto]

Stablecoins are losing significance​

Stablecoins are the bridge between fiat money and cryptocurrencies. When trading crypto, traders would inevitably turn to stablecoins, which ensured the growth of this segment as demand for Bitcoin increased.

For example, during the 2020-2021 bull run, Bitcoin grew six-fold, while the capitalisation of stablecoins increased 33 times to $166 billion over the same time.

The emergence of spot ETFs has weakened this relationship, as many traders and investors have gained access to cryptocurrency through brokers. There's no longer a need for stablecoins when Bitcoin is of purely investment/speculative interest.

A bizarre event occurred on 20 February, when the trading volume of VanEck's HODL fund shares jumped more than 10-fold to $400 million in a day, and the number of trades rose from 500 to 50,000. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg suggested that a recommendation from a popular blogger on Reddit or TikTok caused the hype.

The remarkable thing here is that such a surge demonstrates retail investors' strength and ease of entry. Previously, they would storm a crypto exchange. Now, these movements are seen in ETFs.

Speaking about the loss of significance of stablecoins, it's worth mentioning internal problems. Last year, USDC almost lost part of its reserves due to the bankruptcy of a US bank, and USDT is still being challenged due to the lack of a transparent audit and the presence of commercial papers in its reserves. These are the market's leading coins, with a combined share of 90%.

Two days ago, Circle (the issuer of USDC) refused to further mint on the Tron blockchain, which is headed by scandal-plagued Justin Sun. Last year, the SEC sued Sun and the Tron fund for illegal and manipulative securities trading. Given the impending proceedings, Circle probably decided to withdraw from this network.

However, Tether's (the issuer of USDT) connection with Tron is getting stronger every year, and there are now more USDT minted on this blockchain than on Ethereum: $52 billion vs. $45 billion, respectively.

Last year, Paxos was the #3 issuer, issuing BUSD for Binance until the NYDFS Department of Finance filed a pre-enforcement action notification. The problem was that Paxos was minting BUSD on Ethereum while Binance issued the stablecoin in parallel on the BSC network. This caused a gap of over $1 billion between reserves and supply. Both companies decided to stop supporting BUSD starting in 2024.

It's little wonder that in such conditions, more and more market participants prefer to avoid stablecoins. Legislators are also busy. In the EU, from mid-2024, the MiCA legislation will be implemented, including regulation of stablecoin transparency. Meanwhile, in the US, a similar bill is being discussed in relevant committees.


StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

 

[StormGain_crypto]

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Work, and Will Bitcoin Go Up After Halving 2024?​

Bitcoin halving is a term that often pops up in discussions about the world's most famous cryptocurrency, often accompanied by speculation and anticipation. But what exactly does it mean, and why does it matter? In this article, we'll explore Bitcoin halving, how it works, its dates and what effect it can have on the price of Bitcoin, especially as we approach the next halving event in 2024.

There are 3 eras of currency: Commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.— Chris Dixon, technology investor.

What is Bitcoin halving?

Basics of the Bitcoin network and mining

The Bitcoin network operates as a decentralised digital ledger, or blockchain, that records all transactions made with the cryptocurrency. Each block in the blockchain contains a set of transactions, and blocks are linked together in a sequential and immutable chain. At its core, Bitcoin utilises a peer-to-peer network of computers called nodes, which store a copy of the blockchain and collectively maintain the blockchain through a process known as mining.

Mining plays a crucial role in maintaining the security and integrity of the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin mining involves the process of solving complex mathematical puzzles to validate and record transactions on the blockchain. The difficulty of the mining puzzles adjusts periodically to ensure that blocks are mined consistently, approximately every 10 minutes. Miners compete to find a solution to these puzzles using specialised equipment, with the first one to find a valid solution being rewarded with newly minted BTC and transaction fees. This reward serves as an incentive for miners to contribute their computational resources to secure the network.

Mechanism of Bitcoin halving

Miners are rewarded with newly created BTC for successfully mining a block. But this block reward isn't constant. It decreases at certain intervals in a process known as halving.

Essentially, Bitcoin halving is a programmed reduction in the reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain. The halving event occurs after every 210,000 blocks mined, which is approximately every four years. This interval is hardcoded into the Bitcoin protocol.

When the predetermined block height is reached, the mining reward is halved. Initially set at 50 BTC per block when Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the reward is reduced by half, resulting in 25 BTC per block after the first halving, 12.5 BTC after the second halving, and so forth.

Bitcoin halving is a mechanism designed to control the rate at which new BTCs are created and introduced into circulation. By reducing the block reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain, halving events serve to limit the inflation rate of Bitcoin. This controlled supply issuance is a key aspect of Bitcoin's deflationary monetary policy, ultimately leading to a maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

Bitcoin inflation chart

The history of Bitcoin halvings

The Bitcoin algorithm dictates that there will be a total of 33 halving events. Once these 33 halvings are complete, the fixed portion of the block reward will diminish to less than 1 satoshi, effectively reaching zero, and the only reward for mining will be the transaction fees.

Previous Bitcoin halving events

So far, there have been three Bitcoin halving events.

Bitcoin halving dates history

When is the next Bitcoin halving?

The exact timing of the next halving event is difficult to predict as it depends on the rate at which new blocks are mined, which can vary depending on fluctuations in the network hashrate. According to estimates, the nearest Bitcoin halving will occur in late April 2024.

The future Bitcoin halvings

You can watch the countdown to the next Bitcoin halving in real time if you wish. A Bitcoin halving countdown feature is available on various websites and apps and tracks progress towards the next Bitcoin halving event.

Bitcoin halving countdown

Will Bitcoin go up after halving 2024?

But what happens after a Bitcoin halving event? Does Bitcoin halving increase the price of Bitcoin? Well, let's try to figure it out.

Supply and demand dynamics

Halving reduces supply by lowering the rate at which new BTCs are created. However, while this reduction in supply growth was noticeable after the first halving, the reduction after each subsequent halving is less and less significant. As of now, 93.50% of Bitcoin's maximum supply has already been mined, and the day's supply growth reduction due to halving will amount to less than 0.1% of the daily trading volume.

Impact of the previous halving events on Bitcoin's price

Looking at the Bitcoin price behaviour after previous halvings, it's easy to notice a certain pattern. After a halving event, the Bitcoin price entered a period of consolidation or sideways movement that lasted from a few weeks to a few months. Following the consolidation phase, Bitcoin has historically entered into a bull market cycle characterised by sustained price growth and increasing investor optimism. This bull market cycle lasted from a few months to over a year, and the Bitcoin price reached new all-time highs in the process.

Nevertheless, correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation, and it's difficult to say how much influence the halving events themselves have on this pattern or if there is any at all.

Bitcoin halving price chart

Bitcoin halving 2024 price prediction

Given the historical pattern, many hope the halving will again trigger a bullish cycle in the market and push Bitcoin to new all-time highs. At the moment, the Bitcoin price is showing a clear bullish trend. Although Bitcoin's growth is fuelled, among other things, by investors' expectations of new all-time highs due to the approaching halving, one of the key drivers of Bitcoin's current growth is still the increasing demand from institutional investors with a steady inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Given the optimistic expectations of investors, as well as economic and political developments in the world, there's a possibility that as early as 2024, the price of Bitcoin could exceed the current all-time high. However, this doesn't mean there will be no corrections, possibly quite deep ones, in the process.

 

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Bitcoin ETF trade volume sets new record​

New investment products remain one of the key catalysts for Bitcoin's growth in 2024. On 26 February, a new record was set for daily trade volume, reaching $2.4 billion. Among the ETFs, BlackRock (ticker IBIT) was in the top spot, with a trading volume of $1.3 billion on that day.

This strong performance from new ETFs suggests high interest in the underlying asset, Bitcoin. To fully appreciate it, it's worth looking at the net capital inflows into crypto ETFs, which attracted $600 million in investments over the past week.

The figure could have stopped at the $1 billion mark were it not for continued outflows from the Grayscale (GBTC) fund. Its negative performance is due to a significant discount on the underlying asset in 2023, which attracted speculators, and a high management fee of 1.5% versus the 0.2% to 0.3% fee offered by other ETFs.

On the positive side of the story, however, the rate of daily outflows from GBTC slowed from an average of $500 million in the first week after it converted from a trust fund to a spot ETF to $50 million in the last two days.

In total, spot ETFs have now accumulated $6 billion in investments. Significant capital inflows have renewed talk of Bitcoin replacing gold among investor preferences. Gold ETFs currently boast $90 billion. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes Bitcoin will overtake gold funds in less than two years.

This alone will cause Bitcoin's price to rise above the six-figure level.

Michael Saylor, head of MicroStrategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin, also thinks the current price is low. On 25 February, MicroStrategy acquired an additional 3,000 BTC at a price of around $51,800. The company now has in its reserves 193,000 BTC purchased at an average purchase price of $31,500, with unrealised gains approaching $5 billion.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Saylor said he has no intention of selling assets in the foreseeable future since the cryptocurrency is competing with gold, the S&P index and the real estate market as a means of savings. He clarified that "Bitcoin is technically superior to those asset classes. And that being the case, there's just no reason to sell the winner to buy the losers".


StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)