For years, Bitcoin’s price movements seemed to dance to a predictable rhythm — a four-year cycle shaped by the halving, where mining rewards are cut in half, historically triggering a boom-and-bust pattern. Peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 reinforced this narrative, with 2025 expected to be the next crescendo.
But in 2025, the script may be changing.
Industry voices are growing louder, suggesting the age-old “halving clock” could be losing its grip on market psychology. Jason Williams, author and investor, pointed out that the Top 100 Bitcoin treasury holders now control almost one million BTC, a concentration of supply that changes the dynamics. “This is why the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over,” he stated bluntly.
Matthew Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed this view, saying the cycle may already be ending. Pierre Rochard of The Bitcoin Bond Company added that with 95% of BTC already mined, halvings have become “immaterial to trading float,” with market forces now dictated by institutional products, treasury strategies, and retail spot demand.
A Maturing Market With New Drivers
Martin Burgherr of Sygnum Bank sees the halving not as irrelevant, but as just one of many factors shaping the market. Macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows, regulatory shifts, and the speed of institutional adoption now share equal weight in market outcomes. In his view, the halving remains a reference point — but no longer the scriptwriter for Bitcoin’s plot.
The Counterargument: Cycles Still Matter
Not everyone is ready to call time on the four-year framework. Analyst “CRYPTO₿IRB” argued that ETFs might actually reinforce the cycle by linking crypto more closely to traditional finance, which itself operates on a four-year political rhythm. Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca warned against prematurely declaring the cycle dead, noting that cyclical behavior is deeply ingrained in market psychology.
The Bigger Picture
Whether the halving cycle is ending or simply evolving, one truth is clear: Bitcoin’s market drivers are becoming more complex. The interplay between programmed scarcity and institutional liquidity will define the next phase. For traders and investors, this means that the old playbook — while still useful — may need a serious rewrite.
But in 2025, the script may be changing.
Industry voices are growing louder, suggesting the age-old “halving clock” could be losing its grip on market psychology. Jason Williams, author and investor, pointed out that the Top 100 Bitcoin treasury holders now control almost one million BTC, a concentration of supply that changes the dynamics. “This is why the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over,” he stated bluntly.
Matthew Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed this view, saying the cycle may already be ending. Pierre Rochard of The Bitcoin Bond Company added that with 95% of BTC already mined, halvings have become “immaterial to trading float,” with market forces now dictated by institutional products, treasury strategies, and retail spot demand.
A Maturing Market With New Drivers
Martin Burgherr of Sygnum Bank sees the halving not as irrelevant, but as just one of many factors shaping the market. Macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows, regulatory shifts, and the speed of institutional adoption now share equal weight in market outcomes. In his view, the halving remains a reference point — but no longer the scriptwriter for Bitcoin’s plot.
The Counterargument: Cycles Still Matter
Not everyone is ready to call time on the four-year framework. Analyst “CRYPTO₿IRB” argued that ETFs might actually reinforce the cycle by linking crypto more closely to traditional finance, which itself operates on a four-year political rhythm. Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca warned against prematurely declaring the cycle dead, noting that cyclical behavior is deeply ingrained in market psychology.
The Bigger Picture
Whether the halving cycle is ending or simply evolving, one truth is clear: Bitcoin’s market drivers are becoming more complex. The interplay between programmed scarcity and institutional liquidity will define the next phase. For traders and investors, this means that the old playbook — while still useful — may need a serious rewrite.
